Sunday, March 29, 2009
I generally avoid betting on individual football matches, especially in the higher divisions where the prices are typically extremely accurate. I'm making an exeception today by backing Weymouth to beat Barrow at 9/2. Weymouth have had well documented financial problems, but substantial progress has been made in this area. This has meant that the first team players who departed how now been (partially) replaced by some reasonable on loan signings.
Barrow are a poor side and Weymouth are great value at 9/2 to beat them at home - I'd have made it a 9/4 chance at most. I've had 4pts at Ladbrokes on this (who now go 7/2) - 4/1 is still avilible at Boyelsports (there are as short as 3/1 at William Hill).
Friday, March 27, 2009
Those who have been folllowing my blog will know I have backed Brawn GP (and Button/Barrichello separately) at 'fancy' prices for the 2009 F1 Sesaon. One of the reasons I think they will get off to a 'flyer' is the rear diffuser. This is being used by Brawn GP, Toyota and Williams. (I just hope any points wonare not removed by the FIA on appeal).
The value in Brawn GP for the Australin Grand Prix disappeared with their repeated execllent pre-season testing perfoemnaces (I actually think they are proabbly poor value now for teh Australian Grand Prix). However, there is still value in Toyota ito win the Australian Grand Prix. I backed them at 20/1 pre Friday testing. After a reasonably successfuil testing last night, they are now top priced 12/1. This is still a fair price - I'd make it now a 6/1 chance.
I probably should have also backed Rosberg (williams) at 50/1 prior to the race yesterday. He ran well as Melboune last year and could also make good use of the rear diffuser. Disppointed to have missed the 50/1 - I've no interest at 8/1
As has been well documented, there have been many changes this year in the F1 rules and regulations. This has meant the likelihood of a radical change in points achieved is perfectly possible. With the McLaren cars looking currently uncompetitive, it is unlikely that Hamilton will win a race early in the season. McLaren will clearly be working hard to improve their car, but with limted testing this year they may well struggle. The 5/1 at Bluesq on Lewis Hamilton not winning a race this year is good value - I'd have made it a 3/1 chance.
6 of the last 8 F1 Championships have been decided at the last race of the season. At present it seems that the F1 Championship is competitive, so it seems as likely as ever that the Championship will be decided on the last race (at Abu Dhabi this year). Skybet go 11/10 on this happening. The 11/4 at William Hill is oustanding value - I've tried to have 6 pts on but have been limited to 1.5 pts. I'd make it a 4/6 chance - Skybet go 4/6 on it NOT happening.
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Carl Edwards has a reasonable record at Bristol and showed his car is working well by finishing second in last night's race in the Nationwide series. He qualified poorly for tonights race, but these places can easily be made up in a race. The 12-1 that expekt.com are quoting to win the race is more than fair - I'd make him an 8/1 chance. Remember, although form is temporary, class is permanent!
Can Porto get past Man Utd? Possibly - Man Utd have suffered a dip in form and Porto are currently first in the Portugese League (admittedly not the strongest league).
By backing Porto E/W for the Champions League, you get 66/1 for the win part (a fair price) and 22/1 if they finish second (Coral offer E/W terms of 1/3 1,2). This compares favourably with the 14/1 they are being separately quoted to make the final. Hopefully they will meet Villarreal in the semi final!
Saturday, March 21, 2009
As much as it pains me to write this (being an Arsenal supporter), Villarreal are value in the Champions League 2009 Market. Although we are down to the last eight, some bookies are still offering E/W terms of 1/2 1,2. I've therefore backed Villarreal at 28/1 (2pts E/W) at Ladbrokes.
Villarreal are currently 4th in La Liga. The win part of the bet is a fair price, but I can't see they are a 14/1 chance to make the final - I'd make it a an approx 8/1 chance (it is 10/1 on Betfair) . They should not be significant outsiders against Arsenal and there is always the possibility that Porto will beat Man Utd in the other Quarter Final. I asked Ladbrokes online for 4pts E/W but they restricted me online to 2 pts E/W. I've therefore but the 4pts E/W on at one of their shops! (Making a total of 6pts E/W).
P.S. I've also had 1.5 pts on Dunfermiline to win the Scottish FA Cup at 28/1. I think this should be a 14/1 chance.
I've taken a look at the Grand National in anticipation of having an AntePost bet. However, I have found it is a very competitive field with no stand out bets at present. Instead, I've taken advantage of the competitiveness of the market to have a bet in Skybet's 'Who will start Grand National Favourite' market. They have listed the following horses.
Comply Or Die
Big Fella Thanks
King Johns Castle
Hear The Echo
With two weeks to go,there is plenty of opportunity for a unlisted horse (e.g. Southern Vic, State of Play) to significantly shorten (e.g. if they are tipped by a Racing Tipster). I've there backed 'Any Other' at 20-1.I tried to have 5pts,but Skybet limited me to 1pt.
Saturday, March 14, 2009
UK Bookmakers have caught up with the possibility that Jenson Button might win the F1 Championship this year. The 40/1 I took earlier this week has long since disapperaed - 10/1 is now the the biggest price you can now get with UK Bookmakers.
However, our friends across the pond have still not woken up to the performance of the Brawn GP car. US Bookmaker Sportsbook (http://www.sportsbook.com) are still offering 60/1 on Jenson Button forthe 2009 F1 Championship. I have had 6pts ($200) at this price (plus $20 bonus for opening an account). I'm sure this price won't last long (especially now I've mentioned on this blog!).
I'm not yet convinces that Brawn GP is the 'real deal' but the UK bookmaker prices are probably the most accurate i.e. 10/1 looks approximately the correct price for Jenson Button.
Friday, March 13, 2009
I believe the favoured horses today have excellent chances at Cheltenham. I'm therefore backing at Paddy Power the 33/1 that 4 or more favourites win today (1.5pts). The added bonus is Joint/Co Favs count as the SP Fav.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
With a sizeable number of rule changes in F1 2009, there is the possibility of a previously underperforming F1 team making significant progress (and catching Mclaren/Ferrari). Honda (now Brawn GP) 'wrote off' 2008 and concentrated on preparation for the 2009 season. This coudld have been an inspired decision.
The financial problems with Honda should have had a negative impact, but (Mercedes powered Brawn GP) have been outstanding in testing this week at Barcelona. Testing times should of course be treated with caution, but I'm prepared to take a chance on Brawn GP being 'the real deal' at the availible prices.
I've therefore had the following bets:
Button to win 2009 F1 Chamionship - 6pts E/W - 40/1
Barrichello to win 2009 F1 Chamionship - 2pts E/W - 125/1
Brawn GP to win Constructors Chmaionship - 2pts Win - 80/1
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Parson Pistol has strong stamina, which should mean that he sees out the trip when stepping up to 4m in the National Hunt Chase (and could potentially improve). His form is strong with a recent 3m Grade 2 win at Naas. Noel Measde has given him a break since his last race and (apparently) is confident of a big run. My one reservation was the past performance of Noel Meade at the Cheltenham Festival where he has a poor record, however with Go Natives's victory yesterady I am less worried.
In summary, I believe Parsons Pistol has an excellent chance in the National Hunt Chase. I think he should be a 7-1 chance - I'm having 4ps at 12-1.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Larkwing is a horse that runs to very different races (without any obvious reason/explanation). He has recently being running against high class hurdlers and has not been disgraced. I'm hoping that he runs to his top form tomorrow, in which he will have a live chance and would make a mockery of his 50-1 price (maybe the longer trip will help?). N.B. I've had 1pt E/W at 50-1 (4 places) and 1pt E/W at 40-1 (5 places).
Master Minded is a worthy favourite for the Champion Chase at 1-3 and I wouldn't put anyone off backing him. However, he does make the shape of the market good for E/W bets. I've selected Mahogany Blaze at 100/1. He has a chance of overturning form with Petit Robin from the Victor Chandler at Ascot - the 100/1 looks a fair price for the win. He is currently trading at 10/1 for a place on Betfair, so the 25/1 you are getting on the place on this bet seems excellent value.
With rumours flying around regarding Cosuin Vinny, there has been sustained market weakness in this runner for the Supreme Novice Hurdle. I've therefore backed Torphichen (the second favourite) with Paddy Power (who return losing bets if Cousin Vinny wins). I believe Torphichen has an excellent chance receiving the 8lb 4yo allowance - his defeat of Trenchant at Sandown is strong form (Trenchant subsequently defeated Ainama).
Monday, March 09, 2009
With forecast rain tonight, there is every possibility that the ground tomorrow on the first day of Cheltenham will be soft (even if it is described as good to soft!). This will have a signifcant affect on the chances of most horses. One horse who would benefit from softer ground would be Brave Inca. He has a an oustanding record - he was the winner of the Champion Hurdle in 2006 was also placed in 2005 and 2007.
He showed he was back close to his best when winning the Irish Champion Hurdele in January (after a long layoff through injury, hence why he missed the Chamion Hurdle in 2008). The one concern is his age - he is 11 and Champion Hurdle winners are typically 7/8. However, the 33/1 is an insult - I'd make him a 16/1 chance at most. I've backed him E/W at 33/1 at William Hill, but if Bet365 accepted bets from me, I'd have backed him at 25/1 (paying 4 places).
Sunday, March 08, 2009
Jamie McMurray has been unlucky in the early races of the season (a mechanical problems, other drivers crashing into him (twice)). However, this week he could be set for a good finish (top 4 us very much acheivable). He qulaified in third showing his car has pace and this high qualifying position should enable him to avoid mid-pack trouble. He has previously shown reasonable form at this track with a run of top 15 finishes. The 28-1 is generous - I'd have made him a 14-1 chance. N.B. There is 33-1, but only with bookmakers who have effectively closed my accounts due to to my success).