National Movie Awards - Preview

The National Movie is a new event started up as a partner to the succesful National TV Awards. They are voted on by the public and Skybet (in the form of Helen Jacob) should be congratulated for opening a market on this event.

Prices below from Skybet and my thoughts on each event as follows:

National Movie Awards Action/Adventure - Win (Saturday September 1st, 18:00)
Casino Royale 1/3
Transformers 7/2
300 7/1
Die Hard 4.0 12/1

Casino Royale is rightly a short price for this. It is has the biggest UK box office this year and is a British film. The other films have made little box office impact. I would make it a 1-10 shot - I'm very tempted to have a max. bet on this.... I'll steer clear this time, just becasue it is the fisrt awards. There is certainaly no value in the other runners.

National Movie Awards Animation - Win (Saturday September 1st, 18:00)
The Simpsons Movie 10/11
Shrek the Third 11/10
Happy Feet 8/1
Flushed Away 16/1

The two market leaders are by far the most likely winners. A tough category to call. I'm steering clear of this market, but if you forced by hand I'd side with Shrek the Third

National Movie Awards Comedy - Win (Saturday September 1st, 18:00)
Borat: Cultural Learnings of American 1/25
Hot Fuzz 6/1
Mr Bean's Holiday 33/1
Night at the Museum 33/1

I think the market is wrong on this. Mr Bean and Night at the Museum are very unlikley winners, but I'd make it mush closer between Borat and Hot Fuzz. Both are aimed at similar demographics and did similar business at the Box Office. I'd make it 1/2 Borat, 2/1 Hot Fuzz. If ony I could lay Borat at 1/25! Instead, I'm having 1 pt on Hot Fuzz at 6/1

National Movie Awards Family - Win (Saturday September 1st, 18:00)
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix 1/10
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End 8/1
Spider-Man 3 8/1
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer 33/1

I think that this market is wrongly priced up as well. Harry Potter took approx 10% more at the Box Office - they were the 2nd and 3rd biggest UK Box Office this year (after Casino Royale). Harry Potter may be affected by the fact it has a younger (non voting) audience. I'd make this 1/2 Harry Potter, 2/1 Pirates. I'd like to be able to lay Harry Potter at 1-10! Instead I'm having 1 pt on Pirates at 8/1

National Movie Awards Family Best Male - Win (Saturday September 1st, 18:00)
Daniel Craig (Casino Royale) 2/1
Johnny Depp (Pirates of the Caribbean) 2/1
Daniel Radcliffe (Order of the Phoenix) 5/2
Tobey Maguire (Spider-Man 3) 6/1
Orlando Bloom (Pirates of the Caribbean) 14/1
Rupert Grint (Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix) 20/1
Shia LaBeouf (Transformers) 20/1
Bruce Willis (Die Hard 4.0) 20/1

I tough category to call. You can rule out Willis (too old, low box office), LeBeouf (unknown, low box office), Grint (only role is to split the 'Harry' vote), Bloom (similar to Grint, but for the Pirates vote).

The other 4 all have chances, but my gut feel is that this will come down to Depp, Craig and Radcliffe. It's a tough call, but I'm coming down in favour of Craig, but not strong enough to have a bet.

National Movie Awards Family Best Female - Win (Saturday September 1st, 18:00)
Keira Knightley (Pirates of the Caribbean) 11/8
Judi Dench (Casino Royale) 4/1
Kirsten Dunst (Spider-Man 3) 4/1
Eva Green (Casino Royale) 5/1
Emma Watson (Order of the Phoenix) 5/1
Megan Fox (Transformers) 8/1

I suspect that this will go to Keira Knightley - it is difficult to make a case for any of the others, other than perhaps Eva Green at 5/1 (Casino Royale could sweep the board). I just fear Eva Green is perhaps not quite well knwon enough. However at 11/8 I'm not quite tempted enough to have a bet on Ms Knightly.

P.S. I'd have had 4 pts on each of the 2 bets I had (Hot Fuzz, Pirates) but Skybet restricted me to 1 pts on each. (had to ring up for that, 0.01 pts availible online). Just checked other bets - on the Internet I'm know restricted to 1/100th of what other users are allowed as my max bets.

Tennis - US Open Preview

I have read two excellent reviews of Mens/Womens US Open events at:

www.bettingzone.co.uk
www.racingpost.co.uk

They agree substantially with each other and I am in strong agreement of the majority of the content of the articles. Rather than rewrite the content, please read the articles at the original source!

I've therfore had the following bets.

2.5 pts E/W Hewitt (33/1) (Mens US Open)
2 pts E/W Chakvetadze (33/1) (Womens US Open)
2.5 pts E/W Kuznetsova (25/1) (Womens US Open)

I've also had a 0.5 pts E/W double on each of Hewitt/Chakvetadze and Hewitt/Kuznetsova

Prix de L'Arc - Sageburg - 4pts win - 25-1

I'm still looking looking for the next Rail Link i.e. the Andre Fabre trained winner of the Prix Niel. At the weekend, Sagburg ran an execlllent trail and as is apparanetly being aimed at the Prix Niel. He is owned by The Aga Khan and trained by Andre Fabre .

I've invested 4pts at 25-1 at Victor Chandler - generally 20-1 elsewehere. Just wish I was on at the 350-1 he has been backed at on Betfair! If he wins the Prox Niel, he will probably start 5-1 for the Arc, gievn the strong record of Fabre trained horses (unless some barmy Japanase turn up again!).

Cincinnati Masters - 2pts E/W - Roddick - 14/1

Roddick looks a more than fair price for the Cincinnati Masters at 14/1. He had two wins and a second in the past 4 years. Back-to-Back Masters events mean that Canadian finalists Federer and Djokovic have to be opposed - they could well be tired from last night's final and could go out early in this tournament. In addition, Federer has a poor record in this event. Nadal didn't look convincing in Canada and has a poor record in this event. Roddick has been in good form recenetly, winning in Washington and only losing to an impressive Djokovic in the Canadian 1/4 finals. He is in the weaker part of half of the draw, away from Djokovic and Federer and will have strong US support. Therefore I've had 2pts E/W on Roddick at 14/1.

Premiership Top Goalscorer - Mikael Forsell - 250/1 - 1pt E/W

I've read a large number of betting previews for the forthcoming season and, as is to be expected in football, there are very few 'value' bets - the bookies have this sport well covered.

From past seasons, it is highly likley that a 100/1+ chance will get placed. This is often the lead stroker in a smaller club. Highlighted on www.bettingzone.co.uk are the chances are Mikael Forsell. 3 years ago he had an oustanding season on loan from Chelsea. He has suffered from injuries since but is back to form in pre-season friendlies (5 from 5).

You are taking a lot on trust re: injuries but this is more than factored in the price. If he scores 15+ goals he is highly likley to reach a place.

Big Brother - Liam to win - 20/1 - 2pts

With the creataion of 'Samanda', Brian is starting to look an uneasy favourite. The only other partcipant who looks like they are in a with a chance is Liam. 20/1 in a three horse race looks good value... they always say back the outsider of three! I think his price is likely to contract.

Any winnings from this will more than make up for my losses on the pitiful new entrants who have look like losing my bets on 'Any Other' being the winner (I guess Jonty may have an outside chance).

Premiership Manager of the Month - August 07 - Allardyce

Premiership Managers of the Month have fall into the following two categories (analysis from last four years):

'Top 4' Winner - 16/36
'Non Top 4' Winner - 20/36

(Stats. from http://www.premiershiplatest.com/manager-of-the-month.html)

There is an obvious bias towards the top 4 teams, but not so serious that it cannot be overcome. Ferguson (9-2) and Mourinho (5-1) are unsurprsingly the first and seeond favourites. However, Sam Allardyce has won a signicant no. of 'Manager of the Month' awards with Bolton (4/36) which puts him amongst the leaders in terms of strike rate.

Newcastle play one game less than the majority of other Premiership sides (3 rather than 4 games.) This means they are unlikely to lead the Premiership (where the one fewer games is a major handicap). However, 3 wins from 3 would put Allardyce in with an excellent chance of the Premiership Manager of the Month for August.

Can they achieve this? A relatively quiet summer in terms of new player purchase could count against Newcastle long term. However, with new tactic/training methods deployed over the summer, I suspect that Allarydce will make a improvements just with the current squad. He can certainly improve on the performances produced by previous Newcastle managers, a fact that will count in his favour.

I'm therfore suprised to find Allarydce is 25-1 for August Premiership Manager of the Month. I've therfore had 4pts on this at Paddypower.

Update : This has been backed into 18/1 but is still value at this price - I'd make it a 10/1-12/1 chance.

UK Box Office - "The Simpsons", Transformers to take less than £12m

This weekend, both 'The Simpsons' and 'Transformers' are launched. The top grossing UK film will typically take approx £16m during an opeining weeekend (e.g. Shrek III, Harry Potter). Paddypower have a market as to how much each of these films will take. I think that they could both take lower than expected as they are both fighting against each other and the recently launched Harry Potter film (similar audiences). An quick analsysis of the no. of screens showing each of these films shows 'The Simpsons' is showing on the most screens. 'Transformers' doesn't seem to be showing on signficantly more screens than Harry Potter. The bets I've placed are therefore as follows:

'Transformers' to take less than £12m - 6-4 - thsi is one of the great bets of all time - I'd make it a 1-5 chance. I've had 4 pst on this - the max online they would allow me.

'The Simpsons' to take less than £12m - 5-1 - this should proabably be an even money chance. I've had 1pts on this , again the max online they would allow.

The benefit of this approach is that I would think it was virtually impossible for both films to take more than £12m (i.e. either the 6-4 bet or the 5-1 bet (or both) will win).

Update: This market is now closed. The results can be seen at

http://www.ukfilmcouncil.org.uk/cinemagoing/boxoffice/ ... I also used this for the historic statistics.

3.45 Ascot - Trafalgar Bay - 2pts Win -33-1

Tafalgar Bay has performed well at this course in the past. He was unlucky in his last run and had unsuitable ground the time before. I think he his great price at 33-1 - I'd make his a 14/1-16-1 chance.

Cadel Evans - Tour De France - 4pts win - 20/1 - Skybet

With the sensational news that Rasmussen has been sacked by his team, the Tour De France is likely to go to either Contdaor (Discovery) or Evans (Predictor-Lotto). In this two horse race, 20/1 at Skybet is great value on Evans - he is as short at 3/1 on Betfair. To be honest, nothing would now surprise me... abandoned TdF, further drug withdrawals....

David Beckham to miss a penalty in his first season - 10/1 - 2pts

LA Galaxy have 20 of 32 matches left this season. Give his pivotal role at the club, I think it is likely that Beckham will take the penalties at LA Galaxy (he has been a penalty taker for some of his previous clubs/country). If this is the case, then the 10/1 at Stan James that he misses a penalty at some point during the season is great value.

(See analsysis below)

The conversion rate for penatlties is approx 80% (0.8)
The % of matches with a penalty = 25% (0.25). No. of penalties that LA Galaxy expect to receive in remainder of season = 0.25 x 0.5 (they receive half penalties in matches) x 20 (no. of matches) = 2.5
Probablity that a penalty is missed (2 penalties, conservative) = 1-0.64 = 0.36 i.e. approx 2-1 chance.)

Open Golf (Final Round) - 1pt Cabrera - 500-1

Garcia with his new putting technique is clearly the favourite this afternoon, but never fear one golfer. I think anyone Evens or shorter has a chance (albeit probably small).... therfore I'm having 1 pt at 500-1 on Carbrera. A Major winner this year, his game is suited to links golf and had a strong finish appearance last time at Carnoustie (although it was a much different course then).

Lewis Hamilton - European Grand Prix - 33-1 - 0.5pts E/W

The Mclaren cars are of a similar pace to the Ferraris at this track. If Hamilton starts from 10th on the grid, he should finish, at worst, 4th. He has show in GP2 and in an earlier F1 race that he has the ability (and now F1 car) to pass all bar the Mclarens and Ferraris. Massa has also demonstated in a previous race this season the ease in whcih the two leading teams can carve their way through the pack.

33-1 is probably a fair price for the win element, there will need to be something 'strange' to happen for him to win ie. rain, (possible), a signficant crash at the front (possible) or mechanical problems (again possible).

What attracts me to this bet is the fact Bet365 are going 1/4 1,2,3 which gives me 8/1 on a podium finish. This should be at most a 4/1 chance. Bet365 initially offered me 0.05 pts E/W on this bet (£1.25) but I've mangage to persuade them to let me have 0.5 pts E/W (not the 2pts E/W I wanted).

Open Golf - 1st Round Leader Graeme Storm - 125/1 - 1pt E.W

Graeme Storm has a lot going for him to be first round leader

- Good recent record in recent first rounds.
- Early tee off time (secong group out).. could miss any change in weather i.e. if the wind gets up.
- Aptitude for links golf

I'm having 1pt E./w at Boylesports at 125/1

Big Brother - 'Any Other' winner - 20-1 2.5pts win

Big Brother is currently sferring from poor ratings. In order to improve these ratings, it looks like that new male housemates will be introduced (who will be eligible to win the first prize). The 20/1 could look very generous if this happens....male competitors have an excellent record with the core voting audience of teenage giirls.

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news_detail.html?sku=2010

Update: Ladbrokes seem to be out of line with their competitors...I have had these additional bets:

1pt - Male winner to be 'Any Other' 33-1
1pt - Female winner to be 'Any Other' 33-1
1pt - Outright winner to be 'Any Other' 25-1

Update 2: I've had a further 1.5 pts at 20-1 at Stan James on 'Any Other Winner'... I'm convinced new HMs will shortly be entering... Ms McCall hinted as much on Friday.

http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/bb/2207_housmates.shtml

Scottish Open - Webster - 2 pts win - 20/1

Post Rnd. 3, Mickleson leads by one shot from Havret. Mickleson (-12) is rightly favourite, however at heavily odds on he has to be opposed. I believe Havret (-11)will struggle under the prerssure of playting with Mickleson so I think the bet has to be Webster in 3rd place (-9) at 20/1. The others playeres at -8 or worse I believe are too far back, 4 shots behind Mickleson.

Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe - Airmail Special - 20-1 - 4pts win

After backing Rail Link last year, I've been looking for a horse with a similar profile and prospective campaign. I've think I've found one in Airmail Express. This horse is trained by Andre Fabre and has been recently purcahsed by Sheilk Mohammed with the ARc as a likley target.

The horse is aimed for the Grand Prix de Paris on Sturday and will then be most likely sent to the Prix Niel. Prix Niel winners have an excellent record in the Arc - a win in this race would most likley make the horse one of the favourites.

Update: This horse has been backed in today from 20-1 to 12-1. The 12-1 is probably a fair price - I'm happy with my 20-1 voucher (see above). Good to see others are sharing my opinion!

Montgomerie next European winner of a major - 33-1 - 4pts

Montgomerie has recently hit form with a third last week and a win this week on the Europen Tour (first win 1 1/2 years). I give him a good chance at Carnoustie for the British Open, where he was 14th the last time the Open was played here in 1999.

The best part of this bet is if Monty doesn't win and no other European wins, this bet rides to the next golf major.

I think that Cabrera also has a great chance at Carnoustie.... I'm thinking of an E/W bet on him later in the week...

Leeds Utd to be relegated from Division One - 25-1 - 4pts

Leeds Utd are currently imploding. It is difficult to call how the latest financial mess will work out, but there is a reasonable possibility that the Football League may deduct points. Alternativley, Leeds Utd may miss games at the start of the 2007-2008 season - either way, with a pts. handicap, 25-1 to be relegated could look at massive price in 9 months time. I;d certainly prefer that price than the 6-4 to be promoted.

Update: The previous bet was at Ladbrokes. I've had a futher 4 point at William Hill at 20/1 at 2pts at Totepsort at 22/1

French Grand Prix - Sutil to finish in the points - 50/1 - 1pt

With forecast rain at Magny Cours, there is the possibility of abnormal finishing positions. An argumanet could be made for backing outsiders E/W at three figure prices, however the it is difficult to pick a single driver (maybe Honda?).

Instead of betting on the ouright market, I've had a bet on Sutil to finish in the points. In practice at Monaco (the only other time it rained) he topped the time sheets. Clearly this combined driver/car combination can handle the rain and a car which would normally be off the pace comes right into the mix.

With rain, there could be as few a 10 cars finishing, meaning that is more than possible for Sutil to get a top 8 finish (certainly no 50-1 chance).