What will the Pope say first during his Urbi et Orbi?

Pappy Power have opened up a market on what will the Pope say first during his Urbi et Orbi at Christams 2007. The current Pope has made 2 of these speeches (2005, 2006) and 'saviour' would have won both times. I'm therefore had a (maximum allowed) 0.5 pts at 12-1 on this happening again.

Those of you who wish to see the speaches can do so at:
http://www.vatican.va/holy_father/benedict_xvi/messages/urbi/index_en.htm

This of you who wish to hear the 2006 speach can do so at:
http://www.radiovaticana.org/en1/Articolo.asp?c=109856

How many text messages will be sent on New Years Eve? 2.5 pts @ 13/8 > 205 million (Paddy Power)

d wrld S txt crzy, so itz no suprise d C d no. of txt messgs sent on nu yrs Eve continually rising. d record 4t past 3 yrs S as follows (MDA figures)

20o7 - 214 million text messages
2006 - 165 million
2005 - 133 million

Paddy pwr av priced ^ hw mnE wl B sent dis nu yrs Eve. 205 million S md a 13-8 chnc - I tnk dis isa gr8 prices n shd B closer 2 a 1-5 chnc - I realy cnt C der bn less txt mesages dis yr (provide d SMS netwrk holds up). They've allowd me 2.5 pts wich S resonable on a mkt lk dis.

Oscar - Best Picture - American Gangster - 9-1 - Sportingodds

I've decided to get involved in this market before the award season commences (and before nominations). This is a risk as the awards leading up to the Oscars often give a very good indication of future success. However, I think tht 'American Gangtser' is highly likely to be nominated. If it is nominated, it will be an approx 3-1 chance (at most).

I've decided to back 'American Gangster' on the following grounds

- Outstanding director (Ridley Scott), who has never won an Oscar
- Strong commercial performance
- Favourable critical reception (I liked it!)
- Released at end of year....'Oscar time'

Most of all, the competion looks weak (the only other 'banker' is Atonement).

The only worry is that it is similar to 'The Departed', the winner last year - this may count against it.

I tried to have £100 ar Sportingodds- they restricted me to £5 at 9-1. However, better than the 37p Bet365 allowed me at 8-1. I tried to call them for a larger bet -they've now allowed me £10 at 7-1 and cut the price to 5-1 - guys, please try harder - a £5 bet shoudln't cause a (near) halve in price. New to bookmaking are we?

P.S. I hope to have a bet ready for IACGMOOH on Friday morning.....tune in then! Also, if you backed the iPhone to sell less than 150,00 by Christmas you can probably collect your money now - it sold only 26,500 in the first 2 weeks!

Hennessy Gold Cup - Snowy Morning- 4pts win

I've backed Snowy Morning at 10-1 for the Hennessy Gold Cup. He has since shortened today to 7-1. I think he will start at approx. 5-1 on the day.

He will be racing of what I belive is low handicap mark following his (hampered) run at Chletenham. He is weighted to reverse places with favourite Denman baaed on this run. I bigger danger is Abgregante and, as an outsider, Dream Alliance.

He is now a likely runner following the booking of Tony McCoy. The trainer had (controversial) success in the race with 'Be My Royal' and thus knows what it takes to win the race.

Update: I've had 1pt on Dream Alliance at 22-1 this morning (Saturday). I'm going to Newbury and will back exactas/trifectas with Snowy Morning, Abregante and Dream Alliance.

IACGMOOH - Colour of Gemma Atkinson's first Bikini - White - 4-1 - 1pts

I have really hit the either the high point (or low point) by betting on this market at Paddy Power. Early publicity shots have Gemma Atkinson wearing a (predominately) white bikini.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/showbiz/showbiznews.html?in_article_id=492891&in_page_id=1773

The article states that she is only taking in two bikinis. In the last series, Mylene Klass made a great impact with a white bikini.

At most, I would make a white bikini an even money chance. Therefore I'm having 1pt at 4-1 on a white bikini (max. allowed).

Next Lib. Dem Leader - Chris Huhne - 5-2 - 8 pts

The race for the next Lib Dem Leader is between Chris Huhne and Nick Clegg. They both are standing on similar policy mandates (Chris Huhne is slightly to the left).

Voting is by a ballot of the membership. There are no polls that I know of taken of the Liberal memberhsip. Nick Clegg has greater support of the Liberal MPs, but unlike the Labour ballot, the Liberal MPs votes do not have greater weight.

Chris Huhne stood last time against Menziues Campbell and got 42% of the vote.

I'm struggling to understand why there is a signficant difference in prices. (maybe someone can enlighten me?). I'm therefore backing Chris Huhne at 5-2.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democrats_leadership_election,_2007

Update: I've had a further 4pts at 7-2. The polls say Clegg, but I'm convinced that due to Huhnes impressive performances, there will be a late surge for Huhne - I think this will be very close.

Haye v Mormeck - Haye to win by KO in Rnds 1-3

Haye v Mormeck are both great boxers, with impressive records - difficult to call the outright result. If Haye wins this, it is likey to happen again by an early KO.

- 1st Rnd (3 from his last 9 fight)
- 1st 3 Rnds (6 from his last 9 fights)

http://www.boxrec.com/list_bouts.php?human_id=155774&cat=boxer

I've had 2pts at 20-1 for a 1st round KO and 1 pts on each of Rnds 2 and 3 (both 20-1), total stake 4pts. N.B. My Skybet account is restricted otherwise I'd have take the 25-1 availible there on Rnd 1.

No. 1 Christmas Video Game - High School Musical: Sing It!

This is an interesting market compiled by Paddy Power. The 2nd/3rd/4th favourites are already released (PRO EVOLUTION SOCCER 2008 (12-1), FIFA 08 (2-1) THE SIMPSONS GAME (5-2) - I think this will count against them. They occupy the current first 3 positions in the chart.

http://www.charttrack.co.uk/index.jsp?c=p/software/uk/latest/index_test.jsp&ct=110015

The hot favourite is 'Need for Speed - Prostreet' (5-4). This could be a false favourite - it is scheduled for release on 23 Nov and pre-orders via Amazon.co.uk do not look high. I'm therefore backing the No. 1 in the Amazon pre order chart (High School Musical - Sing it) at 33-1.

Positives:
- Anything connected with HSM has high sales
- Interactivity via a Microphone (multiple-players)
- 'Family title' (Christmas is a family time!)
- Release close to Christmas (13 Dec)

Negatives
- Only availible on one older format (PS2)- not sure how this will affect sales. Is there anyone connected ith the Video Games industry who can comment on this?
- The Amazon sales chart does not seem to match the Chart Track chart - can anyone comment on this? Not sure why they would be so different? Do they serve different markets?

I've been restricted to 0.5 pts.

Will the iPhone succeed in the UK?

Paddy Power hve opened some interesting markets on the iPhone. I think that the iPhone is overpriced (for the technology it offers), depite the innovative GUI. As an (expensive, 18 month) contract phone, it is not ideally suited as a Christms present. It is only being sold on a single network, O2 for £269 + £35 month - UK consumers are not used to spending this mount on a phone AND a significant monthly expenditure. The fact that is hard to make carrier free (as well as the technical weaknesses) will not endear it to tech. fans.

In the US, there waa a price cut after 2 months, despite the initial hype. I am thefore having 1pt (max allowed) on the folloing two bets:

How many iPhones will be sold before Christmas? < 150,000 (5-1) ... O2 are expecting approx 200,000 sales, so this is not significantly less than their estimates.

iphone price be reduced in the UK? Nov 07 - Jan 08 (5-1) ... I can see a price drop in January 08 when sles do not meet expectations.

Where will Alonso drive in 2008?

First of all, apologies for not updating my blog recently. You may know that I work in IT, and I've been very busy plnning/executing a Datacente move that happened last weekend. Hopefully I will actully have some evening/weekend time now!

The main bets I hve missed out on our Fabregas FGS/Anytime bets....

Regsrding the 'Where will Alonso drive in 2008?' market, there are several possibilities:

McClaren - no chance
Ferrari - unlikley, now that contracts with Raikkonen/Masa have been signed
BMW Sauber - unlikely - would require a BMW driver going to Mclaren
Williams - possible, in conjunction with a Rosberg -> McClaren move
Renault - possible, but could stumble on Briatore's demand for more than a one year contract
Toyota - unlikely, given he has already turned down an offer, but still possible
Red Bull - ubnlikely, given size/performnace of team

I think the other teams would be too small.

The value bets are I belive Alsonso taking a year in the US before returning to Ferrari in 2009. I've had 1pt each on Nascar (1000-1) and Champcar (1000-1) (Betfred). Mansell made the transition in the 80's and either of these moves could act as a year 'filler'. Champcar is proably the more likely of these - Bourdais seat is free, and Alonso could be a winner again.

For those of you who don't believe in 1000-1 winners, have a read of this.... and think why my blog is so named!

http://www.p2pbetting.com/Articles/2005/April/Markethighlights/tabid/803/Default.aspx