Germant to outperform expectations in Euro 2008 final

According to most of the pundits, it is 'obvious' that Spain win tonight as they have the most complete team, have played the best football before and during Euro 2008 and will destroy a German team with a weakened defence and a (potentially) missing Ballack. If only football was a simple as that!

This is a single match, and the chance of Germany winning in 90 mins is, at most, the generally availible 5-2 (and this is probably generous). However, a better way of getting with the German side is to back 1-0 (14-1), 2-1 (18-1), and 2-0 (25-1) at Betfair. These two scorelines are appreciably shorter at conventional bookies. By using this staking plan, I am effectively getting 4-1 on a German win in 90mins (with under three goals scored by Germany).

NASCAR - Lenox Industrial Tools 301 - Kevin Harvick - 15/1

Kevin Harvick has qualified in fourth place in (rain shortened) qualifying for this weekends's NASCAR race, the Lenox Industrial 301. Qualifying is not as signficant as F1, but is does indicate he has a good setup for this weekend's race. He is avilible at 15/1 at Boylesports - a more accurate price is the general 8/1 availible at other bookies. I'm having 3 pts at 15/1.

NASCAR - Toyota/Save Mart 350 (Update) - Kahne - 33/1 Boylesports

NASCAR moves to a road course this weekend, one of only two road courses all season. This makes the race a bit uncertain as some drivers are ill suited to road courses and others excel at the different demands. Luckily the bookmakers also don't know which way to turn and have mostly based their books on historical results at the course rather than speeds this weekend.

Kasey Kahne has been in great form recently with 3 wins including at Ponoco (which is a bit more road like than some ovals), and was pretty quick in practice here. He has since put his car on pole for the race, so the Boylesports quote of 33/1 looks attractive (as short as 14/1 elsewhere). I tried to 2pts on but wasrestricted to 1 point win.

P.S. I've no plan to layoff my Russia bet for Euro 2008 - the only execption might be if Turkey beat Germany in the first semi-final (unlikely).

Panucci to score - 12/1 - Spain v Italy - 2pts - Skybet

Under coach Donadoni, central defender Panucci has found renewed favour. He has scored in two of the past five matches is is value at 12-1 with Skybet to score at anytime in 90 mins in the Spain/Italy semi final.

NASCAR Toyota Save/Mart 350 - Dario Franchetti - 50/1

This week's NASCAR is at a very different type of course. The bookies have (unfortunately) mostly taken account of this, hence the very different shaped books this week. However, they may be taking a chance with making new recruit Dario Fanchetti 50/1. He who will likely be suited by this type of course. I'm having a (modest) 1pt.

I tried to have 2pts, but Stan JAmes limited me to 1pts, and then pulled the market. Perhaps I shoudl be know as the man who (re)moves markets! (They have since re-opened at 33/1).

US Open - Woods to miss cut - 8-1 - 5pts

Woods is returning from injury and I can see two possible likely scenarios:

1. His oustanding record at Torrey Pines is the defining factor can he overcomes his layoff to dominate the event.
2. His injury is the defining factor can he significantly underperforms causing him to miss the cut.

I think it is best to side with one of these 'extremes' in this event. I am going with Option 2 and backing him at 8-1 to miss the cut - however it would be no suprise to see him win the event (a 3-1 chance).

N.B. If Woods withdraws, the bet is void.

Twenty20 Cup - Leics. 5pts win 20/1

All teams are likley to take this copmapetition seriously with the prospect of the top 2 teams playing in the 'Super League' for £2.5m. Leics. have an outstanding record in this competition, winning in 2004, 2006 and being (unluckily) eliminated due to bad weather in 2007. All other years, they have made the last four teams for finals day. The KOLPAK palyer issues adds an element of uncertainty, but it is diffult see all bar 3 teams being expelled. Durham (10/10 and Nothants (20/1) look other favourable prices.

Euro 2008 - Romania - 4pts E/W 50-1

I've addded to my Russia E/W bet by backing Romania at 50/1. They have a tough group in Group C ("Group of Death") by I think the bookies have underrated their chances of making out of this group. In qualifying, they showed they were of a similar quality to Holland, taking 4pts from a possible 6pts in head-to-heads. If/when they qualify from Group C, the 50-1 will have long since gone. Here is hoping for a Russia/Romania semi final!

Euro 2008 - No Penalty/Sending off in early games

BoyleSports have opened up a number of intriguing markets. The two I like the look of are:

1. Which match will the first sending off be in?
2. Which match will the first penalty be scored in?

1. Which match will the first sending off be in?
The matches listed are:

Switzerland v Czech Republic - 7th June @ 5pm 3/1
Portugal v Turkey - 7th June @ 7.45pm 4/1
Austria v Croatia - 8th June @ 5pm 11/2
Germany v Poland - 8th June @ 7.45pm 15/2
Romania v France - 9th June @ 5pm 10/1
Holland v Italy - 9th June @ 7.45pm 12/1
Spain v Russia - 10th June @ 5pm 16/1
Greece v Sweden - 10th June @ 7.45pm 22/1
Czech Republic v Portugal - 11th June @ 5pm 28/1
Switzerland v Turkey - 11th June @ 7.45pm 33/1
Croatia v Germany - 12th June @ 5pm 40/1
Austria v Poland - 12th June @ 7.45pm 55/1
Italy v Romania - 13th June @ 5pm 66/1
Holland v France - 13th June @ 7.45pm 80/1
Sweden v Spain - 14th June @ 5pm 100/1
Greece v Russia - 14th June @ 7.45pm 125/1

"If no player is sent off in any of the listed games, "Any Other" will be deemed the winner. Sending off must be a player on the field of play"

I think the likelihood of a penalty being scored in a Premier League match is approx. 0.165. Therefore the chance that no penalties are scored is (0.835)^16 = 20/1

I've backed at 28/1 "Any Other" - 4pts

2. Which match will the first penalty be scored in?

Switzerland v Czech Republic - 7th June @ 5pm 5/2
Portugal v Turkey - 7th June @ 7.45pm 7/2
Austria v Croatia - 8th June @ 5pm 11/2
Germany v Poland - 8th June @ 7.45pm 15/2
Romania v France - 9th June @ 5pm 10/1
Holland v Italy - 9th June @ 7.45pm 14/1
Spain v Russia - 10th June @ 5pm 18/1
Greece v Sweden - 10th June @ 7.45pm 25/1
Czech Republic v Portugal - 11th June @ 5pm 33/1
Switzerland v Turkey - 11th June @ 7.45pm 40/1
Croatia v Germany - 12th June @ 5pm 60/1
Austria v Poland - 12th June @ 7.45pm 70/1
Italy v Romania - 13th June @ 5pm 80/1
Holland v France - 13th June @ 7.45pm 110/1
Sweden v Spain - 14th June @ 5pm 125/1
Greece v Russia - 14th June @ 7.45pm 150/1

"If no penalties are scored in any of the listed games, "Any Other" will be deemed the winner

I think the likelihood of a penalty being scored in a Premier League match is approx. 0.15. Therefore the chance that no penalties are scored is (0.85)^16 = 14/1.

I've backed at 40/1 "Any Other" - 3pts (max. allowed)

There is a possibility that a referee will try to make a "name" for himself at Euro 2008, however you could equally argue they might hesitate to concede a penalty/send off a player on such a big stage.

Indy Racing League - AJ Foyt 225

A week after the Indy 500, the IRL moves to The Milwaukee Mile, which is a very different type of track. A mile oval, with a maximum banking of 9.25 degrees, this is not a speed track, but a precision one. The IRL has raced here 4 times and the only track winner in the field is Tony Kanaan , who has won for the previous 2 years (other winners are recent NASCAR recruits Sam Hornish and Dario Franchitti). Kanaan is great on this track and has been fast all season. He should be a 7-2 shot, so I'm having 2 points (max allowed) at 7-1 with Stan James. Also with Dan Wheldon continuing to go backwards the Championship looks between Kanaan, Dixon and Helio. Kanaan is a very solid Each Way bet at 13-2 and I've had 2.5 points each way on this. The biggest danger for tonight and the season is the Indy 500 winner Dixon.