Euro 2008 - No Penalty/Sending off in early games

BoyleSports have opened up a number of intriguing markets. The two I like the look of are:

1. Which match will the first sending off be in?
2. Which match will the first penalty be scored in?

1. Which match will the first sending off be in?
The matches listed are:

Switzerland v Czech Republic - 7th June @ 5pm 3/1
Portugal v Turkey - 7th June @ 7.45pm 4/1
Austria v Croatia - 8th June @ 5pm 11/2
Germany v Poland - 8th June @ 7.45pm 15/2
Romania v France - 9th June @ 5pm 10/1
Holland v Italy - 9th June @ 7.45pm 12/1
Spain v Russia - 10th June @ 5pm 16/1
Greece v Sweden - 10th June @ 7.45pm 22/1
Czech Republic v Portugal - 11th June @ 5pm 28/1
Switzerland v Turkey - 11th June @ 7.45pm 33/1
Croatia v Germany - 12th June @ 5pm 40/1
Austria v Poland - 12th June @ 7.45pm 55/1
Italy v Romania - 13th June @ 5pm 66/1
Holland v France - 13th June @ 7.45pm 80/1
Sweden v Spain - 14th June @ 5pm 100/1
Greece v Russia - 14th June @ 7.45pm 125/1

"If no player is sent off in any of the listed games, "Any Other" will be deemed the winner. Sending off must be a player on the field of play"

I think the likelihood of a penalty being scored in a Premier League match is approx. 0.165. Therefore the chance that no penalties are scored is (0.835)^16 = 20/1

I've backed at 28/1 "Any Other" - 4pts

2. Which match will the first penalty be scored in?

Switzerland v Czech Republic - 7th June @ 5pm 5/2
Portugal v Turkey - 7th June @ 7.45pm 7/2
Austria v Croatia - 8th June @ 5pm 11/2
Germany v Poland - 8th June @ 7.45pm 15/2
Romania v France - 9th June @ 5pm 10/1
Holland v Italy - 9th June @ 7.45pm 14/1
Spain v Russia - 10th June @ 5pm 18/1
Greece v Sweden - 10th June @ 7.45pm 25/1
Czech Republic v Portugal - 11th June @ 5pm 33/1
Switzerland v Turkey - 11th June @ 7.45pm 40/1
Croatia v Germany - 12th June @ 5pm 60/1
Austria v Poland - 12th June @ 7.45pm 70/1
Italy v Romania - 13th June @ 5pm 80/1
Holland v France - 13th June @ 7.45pm 110/1
Sweden v Spain - 14th June @ 5pm 125/1
Greece v Russia - 14th June @ 7.45pm 150/1

"If no penalties are scored in any of the listed games, "Any Other" will be deemed the winner

I think the likelihood of a penalty being scored in a Premier League match is approx. 0.15. Therefore the chance that no penalties are scored is (0.85)^16 = 14/1.

I've backed at 40/1 "Any Other" - 3pts (max. allowed)

There is a possibility that a referee will try to make a "name" for himself at Euro 2008, however you could equally argue they might hesitate to concede a penalty/send off a player on such a big stage.