According to most of the pundits, it is 'obvious' that Spain win tonight as they have the most complete team, have played the best football before and during Euro 2008 and will destroy a German team with a weakened defence and a (potentially) missing Ballack. If only football was a simple as that!
This is a single match, and the chance of Germany winning in 90 mins is, at most, the generally availible 5-2 (and this is probably generous). However, a better way of getting with the German side is to back 1-0 (14-1), 2-1 (18-1), and 2-0 (25-1) at Betfair. These two scorelines are appreciably shorter at conventional bookies. By using this staking plan, I am effectively getting 4-1 on a German win in 90mins (with under three goals scored by Germany).
2 comments:
when was the last time you won a bet?
Not sure (or care). What is importnat is the long term ROI - the last time I measured this at the start of the year it was 53%. I'll do an update soon - if you include the (locked in) profits on the US presidential election, I think I am running at the same rate this year.
If you prefer I cna have several bets a day on short priced odds on chances (that should be longer) so I can have some winners to make you happy :)
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