Cheltenham Gold Cup Preview - Air Force One - 2 pts E/W 33-1, Notre Petre 2pts E/W 50-1

As Cheltenham approaches, I will be starting to have a few Ante Post bets. I have decided to have my first Ante Post bets in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Kauto Star is a short price at 7/4 to regain his crown (this rarely happens). With Denman underpeforming last week after his layoff through a heart problem (he is now 5-1), I think there is value to be had.

The two horse I have backed are Air Force One at 33/1 and Notre Petre at 50/1. These horses work well on different ground states (Notre Petre will act relatively better if the Ground is 'Soft'. Air Force One will prefer it 'Good').

Both horse were scheduled to run in the Irish Hennessy Gold Cup. With the race having been postponed one week, Air Force One has been pulled out. This could work in his favour as the trainer thinks his below par performance in last year's Cheltenham Festival was caused by the proximity of his prep race (I think it may have been caused by a poor round of jumping). The horse is well and is likely to take his place in the Gold Cup line up (he won't now have a prep race). Air Force One ran well in the Newbury Hennessy Gold Cup (2nd to Madison De Berlais). Although the form of that race has not worked out especially well, the winner Madison De Berlais showed he is a class horse by winning at Kempoton last week. A subsequent below par run by Air Force One in the King George should be discounted as the run was too bad to be his true running.

Notre Petre won the Welsh National and if the ground turns up soft, has a great chance. The Welsh National has a good record in providing Gold Cup Winners - Master Oats and Cool Ground both won both races. He is an improving horse and would not need to improve significantly from his current rating to take a hand in the finish of the Gold Cup (if his ground conditions prevail). He is a 3/1 chance for the Hennessy tomm0rrow - if he wins that (or goes close), he is very likley to go for the Gold Cup and could start at approximately 10/1.

Update: Between placing my bet on Notre Petre and writing this blog entry, he has been backed for the Gold Cup (due to a positive write up in the 'Weekender'.) 25-1 is now the biggest price avilable. The 33-1 is still available on Air Force One.