Favourites have a poor record at Cheltenham so you woudl expect me to be recommending outisders. However, this year I think that the favourites for the 4 Championship races are all relatively strong. These are Binocular (Champion Hurdle), Master Minded (Queen Mother), Kasbah Bliss (World Hurdle) And Kauto Star (Gold Cup)
Therfore, I have backed (for 4 pts) the 4 timer with Betfred at 20-1. (I'd make this an approx 16-1 chance).
In the Champion Hurdle, Binocular is a strong favourite. If he is a good as many think he is, there is a possibility he can win by greater than 10 lengths. Skybet quote 16/1 on this. It has happened twice in the past 20 years (Istabraq and Rooster Booster). The shape of the betting market means that it is slightly more likley to happen this year than an average year. Against this, there are potential stamina doubts with Binocular, so the horse may be held up. Combing these two factors makes me think this is an approx 10-1 chance. I've has 2pts at 16-1.
Master Minded is a rightly a very strong favourite in the Champion Chase. I think the only horse who is likley to approach him in ability is Big Zeb trained by Colm Murphy (who has a very strong Cheltenham record). I've therefore backed the Straight forecast (Master Minded to beat Big Zeb) at 5-1 at Stan James (2 pts). Id have made it a approx 7-2 chance.
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