Indy Racing League - 4pts E/W Sam Hornish - 5/1 - Japan 300

This weekend is the 3rd round of the Indy Racing League. I'm pleased to see that a 'proper' bookmaker (Ladbrokes) have started betting on this league.

This weekend we are back to an Oval course (as opposed to a street course) which should benefit Hornish and Wheldon. Hornish has qualified in 5th and is consequently a great price for the race. Whedlon should be favourite, but I'd make Hornish the clear 2nd favourite at approx 3-1. Barring accidents, I am confident that Hornish will make the top 3 hence I;m placing amn E/w bet to nothing.

Grand National Preview

The Grand National appears especially competitive this year. This is not good new as I backed the SP of the favourite to be 5-1 or less on 14.02.07 (4pts)

(http://kickingbets.blogspot.com/2007_02_01_archive.html)!

As the ground has softened, I've watched my AntePost fancy Mckelvey be backed into 16-1 (without taking the 50-1, 2 weeks ago). Damm. At the prices now, of the leading contenders you can make strong case for the following:

Point Barrow
Hedgehunter
Mckelvey
Billyvoddan
Dun Doire
Bewleys Berry
Monkerhostin

For this reason, rarher than an outright or E/W bet, I've looked for a bigger price horse to make a place. (Typiclly, bigger priced horses don't actually win the race.)

William Hill have some generous 'place only' prices and I've had 2pts on Thisthatandtother to make the first 4. He has a touch of class about him and the 28/1 is more than fair to make a place. The conventional thinking is that he won't stay (which is possiblly true) but I'd say he was simply unproven over the National trip. Nicholls thinks the 100-1 outright is an insult.

My bet of the race is not in the outright market, but a Skybet special. They make Idle Talk 10-1 to Pull Up. This is a great price - I'd make it substantially shorter. I'd have had 4pst on this but Skybet have restricted me to 1pt. Many horses pull up in the National and Idle Talk did on his last visit to Aintree.

Good Luck All!

Englan to win Cricket World Cup - 25-1 - 4pts Win

England have performed reasonably well so far in the World Cup, narrowly losing to Sri Lanka and Australia. However, the other results have meant that if they win their remaining 3 games against South Africa, Bangladesh and West Indies they will qualify for the last 4. South Africa is the key game - if they win this they are likely to go through to the last 4, irrespective of the other 2 results, via NRR.

The Betfair market on this has South Africa at 6-1 and England at 25-1. England seem a great price at 25-1 - I'm having 4pts win.

Neel Jani to star in Champ. Car.

Although Sebastian Bourdais merits the maximum respect, Neel Jani has a chance of posting some impressive performances this season in his Red Bull powered car. He has been impressive in pre-season testing, typically making top 3 times. Pre-season testing times should not be overly relied upon, but it is probably worth chancing a small investment.

I've therefore had 1 pt E/W on Neel Jani at Stan James at 25-1 on the Championship.

In qualifying for the firat race of the season at Las Vegas, Neel Jani has not qualified particluarly well. However, with Bourdais inear the back of the grid, I believe that Jani is worth an investment.

I've therefore had 0.5 pts E/W on Neel Jani at Stan James at 33-1 for this race.

Update: Though you might be interetsed in this 'Live Chat' with Bet365!

James D: Hello, welcome to bet365 Live Chat. How may I help you?
Chris: Good Afternoon. I've tried to place £25 on Neel Jani for the Las Vegas GP and there seems to be a problem.
James D: What seems to be the problem?
Chris: I have only been offered 30p E/W. That is £0.30. Surely some mistake?
James D: The amount offered to a customer depends on the nature of the event and our Traders’ estimate of the likely profitability of that customer’s business. We are sorry that the amount offered in this case is less than you would like to have staked.
Chris: As in £0.30 vs £25? Do you think 30p is a reasonable maximum size for a bet from one of the UK largest bookmakers?
James D: As I said, I am sorry that the amount offered in this case is less than you would like to have staked.
Chris: Do you think 30p is a reasonable maximum size for a bet from one of the UK largest bookmakers?
James D: I am afraid I am unable to comment on that.Is there anything else I can help you with today?
Chris: Yes, are there any markets where I might place higher value bets? Woudl you take, say, £1 on Premiership matches or would that be too large bet for Bet365?Chris: (that is 100 pennies).
James D: We take each individual bet on it's merit's, so I could not comment on what would be offered on Premiership matches
Chris: My thinking is that your motor traders aren't prepared to stand by their judgement (despite the fact they have the % margin in their favour). Why is this?
James D: As I said I cannot comment on this, it is a trading decision.You were informed of the restriction on your account on the 20th March, and I am afraid these will stand
James D: Is there anything else I can help you with today?
Chris: Lack of confidence in your motor traders is not a trading decision, it refects you confidence in your traders? Why don't you just change them?
James D: As I said, I am not prepared to comment on this further. I will terminate this chat unless there is anything else I can help you with?
Chris: Is there anyway that I can have my limits raised, say to 50p? I know that is a big bet.
James D: As I said, I am now terminating this chat.

From the server records, I know Bet365 read this blog... hi guys!

Malysian Grand Prix - Lewis Hamilton - 1.5pts E/W - 14-1 (Sporting Odds)

The Ferraris and McClarens are clear leaders in performance (with Ferraris in front). However ther is a real possibility that Raikonnen will suffer a 10 place demotion due to an engine change. This gives Hamilton a great chance of a podium finish. If the engine change doesn;t happen, it is still a fair bet.

I *nearly* backed a Hamilton Podium Finish at 2-1, but more speculatively I've gone E/W at 14-1 (with increased place terms). He is as short as 7-1 outright elesewhere.

I'd have had 4pts E/W but I have had my stakes restricted by Sporting Odds.

Update: I've had a further 1pt win at 20-1 at Betfair on Lewis Hamilton.

Indy Racing - Streets of St. Petersberg - 2 pts win Tony Kanaan - 7/1- Stan James

This road course is unsuitable for the oval specialists Wheldon and Hornish. Instead, I've selected Tony Kanaan to win. He has a solid record at this event (consistent top 3 finishes) and this could be his year. He went fastest in qualifying and would have finished on pole, but for crashing. Instead he lines up in 6th place.

His main competitors are the 5 cars in front of him. The most signficant drivers this week are Castroneves (Penske), and Dixon (Target). Either of these could well win but they are much shorter prices than Kanaan (typiclly approximately 2/1 and 4/1 respectively - accurate prices). I think Kanaan will be too strong for his less experienced team mates Andretti and Franchitti, and Manning doesn't have the car under him.

I'd make Kanaan an approimate 7/2 chance ... I'd have had 6 pts win, but Stan James restricted me to 2pts.

Back (to Lay) bet on Charles Clarke - 50-1 - Betfair - 1.5 pts

It look a disctint possibility that Charles Clarke could stand against Gordon Brown in the race for the Labour Party Leadership. He will need 44 MPs to nominate him - whether he gets this will likely depend which of John Macdonald/Millband (if any) stand. I fully understand why he wants to stand - he is not likely to get any sort of poistion in a Brown led government.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1596687.ece

If he does make the ballot paper, I would expect him to trade at approx. 10-1. Can't see him winning so would be a good point to lock in the profit.

New Seven Wonders of the World - Great Wall of China, Pyramids of Giza.

I've taken a look at this market and sportingbet.com.au are well out of line. The 'Great Wall of China' and 'Pyamids of Giza' are 1-20 chances in my eyes (other bookies go top priced 1-33)... these bookies go 1-5 and 1-3. I'm not usually a short price backer, but I'm having 3pts on each, (virtually) risk free. I just can't see how either of them can come out of the top 7. Not going to win much on this, but a small profit is still a profit...just waiting to collect in July 07.

I can't get more on as I've had to open a new account (and they have restricted how much I can be deposited until my identity is confirmed). If I was unrestriced I'd have had 100 pts on each!The upside of this is I've had a free 1.5 pt bet which I have placed on Petra at 11/4 - top priced 7/5 elsewhere. Petra is currently jut inside teh top 7 - 7/5 is probably an accurate price.

More information on this market (and how it works) can be found at:

www.new7wonders.com

Eurovision Song Contest - Switzerland - 8pts win - 8/1

I belive the Swiss have a great chance in this year's Euroviosn song contest in 2 months time. To win Eurovision, you need the following

- Memorable song/routine - Finland showed last year that with the increased number of entrants a memorable stage routine is strongly preferable. I also have looked for a strong chorus. What is certain is you can't win with a poor song (e.g UK).

The Swiss song has a strong chorus and a 'Vampire' based act which could adapt well for a stage show. N.B. It may be a little too similar to Finland's act last year 'Monsters of Rock'.

- Political voting - preference for countries part of Balctic or Scandanavian blocks - the Swiss fall down on this, but at least they are neutral (unlike the UK).

- English singing - this rules out a signficiant no. of acts, although some have attempted to overcome this by at leaset singing the chorus in English. The Swiss song is in English. N.B. Take care on this, some acts sing in qualifying in their country in the native language, only to switch to English in the semi finals/finals

- Semi-Final appearance - I believe the winner of the semifinal has gone on to win this event in the past 2 years... maybe the appearance helps to improve the act. What is certain is that the semi-final results are likley to be translated in final positions. N.B. The semi final resuilts are not released before the final.

Other possibilities at larger prices are Finland (great song) and Israel (memorable Novelty song).

The songs can be viewed at www.eurovision.tv

8/1 is freely available on the Swiss - I missed the 10/1 yesterday :( - in fact, Bluesq. are going 9/1! (oops.)

Update: WillHill have moved the Swiss into 13/2.... I've had a further 4pts at Bluesq at 9/1 - I don't think Bluesq will be able to hold this price for much longer.

Next UK Chancellor - 2pts - 6/1 - Jack Straw - William Hill

Since his move to Leader of the House, Straw was worked closley with Gordon Brow. Today, Jack Straw has been asked by Gordon Brown to lead his campaign for next Labour Leader. This puts jime in a strong position for next Chancellor.

His 2 main rivals are Alistair Darling and Ed Balls. Ed Balls is the most likely of these, but due to his relative parliamentary inexperience (he only changed to an MP from adviser at the last election), I think Ed Balls will be made Chief Secretary to the Treasury.

I tried to have 10pts on this, but was restricted to 2pts! The market was then immediately taken down by Willian Hill. I am sure it will re-open soon.....not sure at what price though.

N.B. Not having a good time with getting bets on at present... tried to place 2opts on Dan Wheldon for IRL Championship at 3-1 with SportingOdds - no joy, however only succeeded in moving the price from 3/1 to 2/1... he won the 1st race last night.

Next Fench Presidential Election - 20pts win - 5/1 - Bayrou - William Hill

I have been closely following the Fench Presidentail polls over the past 4 weeks. The changes can be clearly seen on the following graph (from one of the major polling organisations).

http://2007.tns-sofres.com/evolution-intentions.php

This reslts of this poll have been confirmed by the another major polling organisations.

http://www.csa-fr.com/fusioncharts/presi2007/presi2007.html

I believe that the bookies have seriously misjudged this market. Momemtum is a key element in politics and I am confident that Bayrou can attact enough votes from both the left (Royale) and right (Sarkozy) to make the top 2 - he is nearly there now! I then believe by nature of being the centre candidate he is highly likely to win the final 2 'man' runoff - there is no great liking for either Sarkozy or Royale.

N.B. William Hill have temporarily taken down this market, however I expect it to reappear (not sure what price he will then be). Bayrou is availible at 4-1 at expekt.com - this is still at great price! (He is shorter on Betfair).

Lewis Hamilton - 10pts - Top 3 Season Finish - F1 - 5/1 (Boylesports)

Those of you who follow my blog will know that pre-season I have had 2 bets on F1 for 2007

Hamilton (25/1) - E/W
Kovalainen (33/1) - E/W

This prices are still availible and I would not put anyone off these bets. (I've also backed Lewis Hamilton at 25/1 for SPoTY!)

However, I have now found a even better bet - 5/1 at Boylesports on Hamilton to make the Top 3. Ferrai and Mclaren have been the strongest teams in winter testing. The Ferraris have been slightly stronger than the McLarens, however the difference is not great (approx. 0.3s). This could change as the cars progress over the season.

Hamilton's pace has been similar to Raikonnen in winter testing. He is a naturally gifted driver and I would rather take 5/1 on him for a top 3 finish than Raikonnen (2-1), Alsonso (9-4) or Massa (3-1) for the World Championship. There are so many changes in driver/team combinations and tyres (all now run on Bridgestones) that taking a short price is risky.

Extrabet also bet on this market and have cut the price from 9/2 to 5/2 for a Lewis Hamilton to 3 finish - this is a much more accurate price.

10pts Win - Hilary Benn - Labour Deputy Leadership - 3/1

The field for the Labour deputy leadership election is not yet finalized, but I think that Hilary Benn is a first rate bet at 3/1. The reasons are as folllows (in order of importance):

- Has an approx. 10-15% lead in the latest YouGov deputy leadership poll. The results are as follows:

http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/TEL070101005_1.pdf

YouGov surveyed Labour Pary members and Union mebers, two of the three constituents of the leadership election (MPs are the other). N.B. A complication is that Union votes are not decideded by block vote, but I suspect that union leaders will influence how their members vote.

YouGov has a good record in these events and peformed well when predicting the Lid Dem and Conservative leadership elections.

- Hilary Benn has popular support amongst the general population, as indicated by the YouGov popularity Index where he has the highest ratings of the Labour politicians listed
- Unlike some of the other runners, has declared his intention to run
- His name recognition, being son of the iconic Tony Benn

Candidates need 44 MPs to support them to be able to stand, but I am confident that Hilary Benn will achieve this goal.

Oppose the favourites at Chletenham in the 'Big 4' Races.

I think that the favourites in the four Cheltenham Championship races are all vulnerable, namely:

Champion Hurdle: Detroit City
Queen Mother: Well Chief
World Hurdle: Black Jack Ketchum
Gold Cup: Kauto Star

I am especially against the chances of Black Jack Ketchum (ran an appalling trial) and Kauto Star (jumping issues, not a great record in a large field) with both not guaranteed to stay in their races, especially on soft ground.

Choosing horses to oppose them is more difficult. However, I have selected the following horses - prices all from William Hill:

Champion Hurdle: Sublimity (18-1)
Queen Mother: Dempsy (20-1)
World Hurdle: Kasblah Bliss (16-1)
Gold Cup: My Will (20-1)

I'm having 2pts win on each and a 0.5 pt Yankee (5.5 pts)

Cheltenham - > 6 winners with SP > 16-1 - 8pts @ 5/2

Ladbrokes have formed a market as to how many winners will be priced with an SP > 16-1. With forecast good-soft ground, I would expect that there woudl be more than normal.

The current stats are as foillows:

2006 7/24 odds greater than 16/1
2005 5/24
2004 6/20
2003 3/20
2002 6/20

Given this analysis, I think Ladbrokes are more than fair in offering 5-2 on > 6 winners with SP > 16-1. 5-6 winners is also a lively runner at 2/1, the the others are poor value.

Scotland v Italy - No Tryscorer - 25-1 - 2pts

The last 3 matches between these sides have had 2-1-2 tries respectively. With bad weather forecast, there is no reason the think there won't be similarly few tries today. I think 25-1 on no tries being scored William Hill is more than fair.....

Phil Mickleson to win 2007 Masters - 9-1 - 4pts win

Mickleson has come back to form and is likely to give Woods his most serious challenge in the 2007 Masters. Mikelson is currently top priced 9-1 at present to reain his title. If his current form continues in Feb/March, I expect that he will start clear 2nd fav. at closer to 5-1 (he is unlikley to start any bigger than 9-1).

Harrison v Sprott - Sprott to win in Points - 10-1 - 4pts

'Fraudley'/Audrey Harrison has a woeful record has a heavy weight. His one reasonably impressive performance came last time against Williams, in a fihgt Williams took at short notice. Sprott is no world beater, but if Harrison boxes as he has done previously there is a good chance Sprott can nick this on points.

Starting Price of Grand National Fav. to be 5-1 or less.

In the past 20 years there have been one void National and 4 National favourites 5-1 or less. It is therefore suprising to see William Hill offering 12-1 on a 5-1 fav (or shorter price). With the recent policy from the handicapper of 'compressed' wieights, you could argue that a short priced favourite is less likely. However, jt. favs 5-1 favs last year of Hegehunter/ClanRoyal shows that this may not make a signficant difference.

For this reason, I hoping for a big plunge on any horse... I'm having 4pts at 12-1 on a 5-1 or shorter price Grand National fav.

Murray to win a Masters event in 2007- 9-2 - 2pts.

Murray is making great progress in his tennis career and he has a realistic chance of winning one of the 7 masters events this year. Blue Square have this eventuality at 9-2 - my maths makes it an approximate 2-1 chance (assuming it you think he will play all events and will be an approx 16-1 chance for each).

I'd have had 8pts - howveer, Bluesq have limited me to 2pts.