What will the Pope say first during his Urbi et Orbi?

Pappy Power have opened up a market on what will the Pope say first during his Urbi et Orbi at Christams 2007. The current Pope has made 2 of these speeches (2005, 2006) and 'saviour' would have won both times. I'm therefore had a (maximum allowed) 0.5 pts at 12-1 on this happening again.

Those of you who wish to see the speaches can do so at:
http://www.vatican.va/holy_father/benedict_xvi/messages/urbi/index_en.htm

This of you who wish to hear the 2006 speach can do so at:
http://www.radiovaticana.org/en1/Articolo.asp?c=109856

How many text messages will be sent on New Years Eve? 2.5 pts @ 13/8 > 205 million (Paddy Power)

d wrld S txt crzy, so itz no suprise d C d no. of txt messgs sent on nu yrs Eve continually rising. d record 4t past 3 yrs S as follows (MDA figures)

20o7 - 214 million text messages
2006 - 165 million
2005 - 133 million

Paddy pwr av priced ^ hw mnE wl B sent dis nu yrs Eve. 205 million S md a 13-8 chnc - I tnk dis isa gr8 prices n shd B closer 2 a 1-5 chnc - I realy cnt C der bn less txt mesages dis yr (provide d SMS netwrk holds up). They've allowd me 2.5 pts wich S resonable on a mkt lk dis.

Oscar - Best Picture - American Gangster - 9-1 - Sportingodds

I've decided to get involved in this market before the award season commences (and before nominations). This is a risk as the awards leading up to the Oscars often give a very good indication of future success. However, I think tht 'American Gangtser' is highly likely to be nominated. If it is nominated, it will be an approx 3-1 chance (at most).

I've decided to back 'American Gangster' on the following grounds

- Outstanding director (Ridley Scott), who has never won an Oscar
- Strong commercial performance
- Favourable critical reception (I liked it!)
- Released at end of year....'Oscar time'

Most of all, the competion looks weak (the only other 'banker' is Atonement).

The only worry is that it is similar to 'The Departed', the winner last year - this may count against it.

I tried to have £100 ar Sportingodds- they restricted me to £5 at 9-1. However, better than the 37p Bet365 allowed me at 8-1. I tried to call them for a larger bet -they've now allowed me £10 at 7-1 and cut the price to 5-1 - guys, please try harder - a £5 bet shoudln't cause a (near) halve in price. New to bookmaking are we?

P.S. I hope to have a bet ready for IACGMOOH on Friday morning.....tune in then! Also, if you backed the iPhone to sell less than 150,00 by Christmas you can probably collect your money now - it sold only 26,500 in the first 2 weeks!

Hennessy Gold Cup - Snowy Morning- 4pts win

I've backed Snowy Morning at 10-1 for the Hennessy Gold Cup. He has since shortened today to 7-1. I think he will start at approx. 5-1 on the day.

He will be racing of what I belive is low handicap mark following his (hampered) run at Chletenham. He is weighted to reverse places with favourite Denman baaed on this run. I bigger danger is Abgregante and, as an outsider, Dream Alliance.

He is now a likely runner following the booking of Tony McCoy. The trainer had (controversial) success in the race with 'Be My Royal' and thus knows what it takes to win the race.

Update: I've had 1pt on Dream Alliance at 22-1 this morning (Saturday). I'm going to Newbury and will back exactas/trifectas with Snowy Morning, Abregante and Dream Alliance.

IACGMOOH - Colour of Gemma Atkinson's first Bikini - White - 4-1 - 1pts

I have really hit the either the high point (or low point) by betting on this market at Paddy Power. Early publicity shots have Gemma Atkinson wearing a (predominately) white bikini.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/showbiz/showbiznews.html?in_article_id=492891&in_page_id=1773

The article states that she is only taking in two bikinis. In the last series, Mylene Klass made a great impact with a white bikini.

At most, I would make a white bikini an even money chance. Therefore I'm having 1pt at 4-1 on a white bikini (max. allowed).

Next Lib. Dem Leader - Chris Huhne - 5-2 - 8 pts

The race for the next Lib Dem Leader is between Chris Huhne and Nick Clegg. They both are standing on similar policy mandates (Chris Huhne is slightly to the left).

Voting is by a ballot of the membership. There are no polls that I know of taken of the Liberal memberhsip. Nick Clegg has greater support of the Liberal MPs, but unlike the Labour ballot, the Liberal MPs votes do not have greater weight.

Chris Huhne stood last time against Menziues Campbell and got 42% of the vote.

I'm struggling to understand why there is a signficant difference in prices. (maybe someone can enlighten me?). I'm therefore backing Chris Huhne at 5-2.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democrats_leadership_election,_2007

Update: I've had a further 4pts at 7-2. The polls say Clegg, but I'm convinced that due to Huhnes impressive performances, there will be a late surge for Huhne - I think this will be very close.

Haye v Mormeck - Haye to win by KO in Rnds 1-3

Haye v Mormeck are both great boxers, with impressive records - difficult to call the outright result. If Haye wins this, it is likey to happen again by an early KO.

- 1st Rnd (3 from his last 9 fight)
- 1st 3 Rnds (6 from his last 9 fights)

http://www.boxrec.com/list_bouts.php?human_id=155774&cat=boxer

I've had 2pts at 20-1 for a 1st round KO and 1 pts on each of Rnds 2 and 3 (both 20-1), total stake 4pts. N.B. My Skybet account is restricted otherwise I'd have take the 25-1 availible there on Rnd 1.

No. 1 Christmas Video Game - High School Musical: Sing It!

This is an interesting market compiled by Paddy Power. The 2nd/3rd/4th favourites are already released (PRO EVOLUTION SOCCER 2008 (12-1), FIFA 08 (2-1) THE SIMPSONS GAME (5-2) - I think this will count against them. They occupy the current first 3 positions in the chart.

http://www.charttrack.co.uk/index.jsp?c=p/software/uk/latest/index_test.jsp&ct=110015

The hot favourite is 'Need for Speed - Prostreet' (5-4). This could be a false favourite - it is scheduled for release on 23 Nov and pre-orders via Amazon.co.uk do not look high. I'm therefore backing the No. 1 in the Amazon pre order chart (High School Musical - Sing it) at 33-1.

Positives:
- Anything connected with HSM has high sales
- Interactivity via a Microphone (multiple-players)
- 'Family title' (Christmas is a family time!)
- Release close to Christmas (13 Dec)

Negatives
- Only availible on one older format (PS2)- not sure how this will affect sales. Is there anyone connected ith the Video Games industry who can comment on this?
- The Amazon sales chart does not seem to match the Chart Track chart - can anyone comment on this? Not sure why they would be so different? Do they serve different markets?

I've been restricted to 0.5 pts.

Will the iPhone succeed in the UK?

Paddy Power hve opened some interesting markets on the iPhone. I think that the iPhone is overpriced (for the technology it offers), depite the innovative GUI. As an (expensive, 18 month) contract phone, it is not ideally suited as a Christms present. It is only being sold on a single network, O2 for £269 + £35 month - UK consumers are not used to spending this mount on a phone AND a significant monthly expenditure. The fact that is hard to make carrier free (as well as the technical weaknesses) will not endear it to tech. fans.

In the US, there waa a price cut after 2 months, despite the initial hype. I am thefore having 1pt (max allowed) on the folloing two bets:

How many iPhones will be sold before Christmas? < 150,000 (5-1) ... O2 are expecting approx 200,000 sales, so this is not significantly less than their estimates.

iphone price be reduced in the UK? Nov 07 - Jan 08 (5-1) ... I can see a price drop in January 08 when sles do not meet expectations.

Where will Alonso drive in 2008?

First of all, apologies for not updating my blog recently. You may know that I work in IT, and I've been very busy plnning/executing a Datacente move that happened last weekend. Hopefully I will actully have some evening/weekend time now!

The main bets I hve missed out on our Fabregas FGS/Anytime bets....

Regsrding the 'Where will Alonso drive in 2008?' market, there are several possibilities:

McClaren - no chance
Ferrari - unlikley, now that contracts with Raikkonen/Masa have been signed
BMW Sauber - unlikely - would require a BMW driver going to Mclaren
Williams - possible, in conjunction with a Rosberg -> McClaren move
Renault - possible, but could stumble on Briatore's demand for more than a one year contract
Toyota - unlikely, given he has already turned down an offer, but still possible
Red Bull - ubnlikely, given size/performnace of team

I think the other teams would be too small.

The value bets are I belive Alsonso taking a year in the US before returning to Ferrari in 2009. I've had 1pt each on Nascar (1000-1) and Champcar (1000-1) (Betfred). Mansell made the transition in the 80's and either of these moves could act as a year 'filler'. Champcar is proably the more likely of these - Bourdais seat is free, and Alonso could be a winner again.

For those of you who don't believe in 1000-1 winners, have a read of this.... and think why my blog is so named!

http://www.p2pbetting.com/Articles/2005/April/Markethighlights/tabid/803/Default.aspx

Brazil GP - Hamilton to finish Lap 1 in worse position than Grid

Hamilton is 2nd on the grid, but for a couple of reasons I think he could be in a worse position at the end of lap 1:

- he is starting from the dirty side of the grid (like all even grid positions) - this will hinder his start
- he has 2 rivals who can win, so he needs to keep any confrontatiosn mimimized. Therfore from a "game theory" perspective, he is likely to 'back out' from an early confrontaion with Raikonnen (in 3rd) at the first corner. I think Raikkonen (or even Alonso in 4th) will try to make a move on Hamilton, most likely going into the first corner.

The 11/4 at Skybet is a more than reasonable price - I'd be going 5/4.

The only possible issue is that Hmailton is such a racer, he won't back out - however, depsite his young age and racing mentality, he will not want to throw the championship away.

RWC Final - No Tryscorer - 16-1 - 2pts

I think that the RWC final could be relativey tight. The last 4 finals have had 2,2,0,1,2 tries respectively.... I think 16-1 is reasonable value for 'No Tryscorer'. I'm having 2 pts on this.

Tote Cesarewitch - Dr. Sharp, 2pts Win 14-1

I've missed the 'fancy' prices on Dr. Sharp in the Cesarewitch Ante Post market, but I still think Dr. Sharp is a godd bet at the generally availible 14-1 - I'd make him a 7-1/8-1 chance. He has a lot going for him:

- Two recent promising runs shows he is back to form after a poor early season
- Soft (Good to Soft in places) Ground
- High Draw (31/36).
- Trainer in form
- Ran well in the race last year from an unfavourable draw
- 2lb lower in the weights than last year
- Front running tactics minimise the possibility of trouble in running

Others I think have a good chance are Fair Along, Marcoville and, at a bigegr price, Ned Ludd.

Dr. Who to star at National TV Awards

Unlike the National Movie Awards, the (publicly) voted National TV Awards have soem 'form' to follow:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_National_Television_Awards

There are clear patterns to follow. The most noticeable is the success in the Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Drama in 2005 and 2006 for Dr. Who (new series). They clearly have a committed fan base which ensure their success. For this reason I'm hgaving the following bets at Skybet:

2pts Dr. Who 4/9 - Best Drama
2pts Freema Agyeman (Dr. Who)- 5/4 - Best Actress (limited from 6 pts)
4pts David Tennant (Dr. Who) - 11/10 - Best Actor (limited from 10 pts)

I think that the best bets on the other markets (looking at historical trends) are as follows:

Best Reality - Big Brother - 4/9
Best Serial Drama - Eastenders - 11/8
Ant & Dec's Saturday Night Takeaway - 2/7
Best Entertainment Presenter - Ant & Dec - 1/4

I've not had any bets on these markets - still considering...

A1GP - Is Reid (NZ) underrated? I'll make Stan James pay!

A1GP is relatively low profile and currently only one bookmaker has prices on the championship (Stan James). I have backed New Zealand at 33/1 for the season (4pts E/W). They make now New Zealand 25/1 chances for the season (www.stanjames.com) - a price that is availible at 11.15 a.m.

I've aslo backed New Zealadnd for this weekend for Sprint Qualifying/Soprint Rac and Main Race Qualifying/Main Race. The qualifying fro the Sprint and Main Races takes place today at 1 p.m. (UK time) with the Sprint and Main Races tomorrow. The format (and otehr detaisl on the event) can be seen at:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A1gp

(Unfortunately Stan James has now taken down the markets for this weekend's qualifying sessions and race).

Newe Zealand have a great record in A1GP coimg 4th (2005-2006) and 2nd last year (2006-2007). Their improved performace is atributable to the increased use of Johhny Reid (identical cars are used by all partcipants). Johnny Reid will again be the main driver this year.

He is racing this weekend in the Czech republic - he had a great ride in qulaifying there last year, on pole. Unfortunaetly he went out on the first lap of the Sprint race. This compromised his main race (different qualifying system last year).

So why is Johnny Reid/New Zeland such a big price? I can only put this down to the 'recency' affect. He has a poor race last race (first race of the season). It looks like Stan James have based their current season prices on the this first race, rather than last season. Although there is a little merit in this (show the speed of the current drivers), I am sure they have read too much into this race.

The other resaon why these prices migfht be wrong is the low profile of this series - it would be virtually impossible to price up a Premisership match inccrrectly. Thsi shows the benefit of conecentrating you attention on 'specialist' events.

Year of Next UK General Election

Quick reactions can lead to great bets... it happened last year for me for on bets on SPOTY (Zar Philips, 11-1) and SCD (Mark Ramprakash). Typically, Betfair has reacted and you have have 15 mins (max.) to put your bets on with bookies.

A situation like thsi occured yesterday. It was announced as the lead story on BBC News that Gordon Brown has ruled at this Year (2007) for a General Election. There as no way they would have lead with this without being 100% sure (it turns out that Andrew Marr/BBC was having a one-to-one interview).

The odds on a 2007 General Election had moved to 40-1 at Betfair. However Willima Hill were still offering 4-6 on there NOT being a General Election in 2007. Not bad prices for a two runner race! William Hill limited me to pts. I also placed 0.5 pts at 40-1 on Betfair on a 2007 Election, in the (unlikely) event of a change of mind by Gordon Brown.

On a related market, I as able to back a 2009 General Election at 4/1 at Coral. I was limited to 4pts. This is now an even money chance on Betfair, as Gordon Bron has said a 2008 election is also unlikely.

These markets were pulled by the bookies approx. 15 mins later.

Hyypia to score anytime (Liverpool v Tottenham) - 16-1 - 2pts

With Agger currently injured, Hyypia is the target man for Liverpool for headers at corners. He has yet to score this season, but looked a potent threat in mid-week v Valencia. Liverpool were poor in that game, but could easily bounce back against a Spurs team especially weak at defending at set plays.

William Hill are taking a chance at offering Hyypia at 16-1 - he is signficantly shorter elsewhere. I'm having 2pts at this price on Hyppia scoring at anytime in the match.

2pst Lescott (Everton) - 9/1 Anytime scorer v Metallist

I;ve steered clare of Football bets (First/Anytime scorer) this season, however it has become *blindingly* obvious that defender Lescott (Everton) is a master of scoring from set plays. For this reason. I've had 2pts on Lescott (Boylesports) to score anytime tonight v Metallist.

Everton are 4/5 chances away at Metallist (I think they probably shoudl be shorter), and there is no reason to suspect Lescott is any less likely to score this evening than previous games.

2007 Q3 and Overall Results

I've had a good Q3 2007, whcih means that my overall profitability is back on course for a ROI of approx 40%.

If anyone wants a copy of the full .xls, send send me an email.

Lock in Hamilton F1 Championship Profits.

Having backed Hamilton at 25-1 for the F1 Championship, I'm not about to see my profits disappear with a freak result at China and/or Brazil. I'm hence laying Hamilton at 1.1 on Betfair.... he possibly should be a slightly shorter price (maybe 1.07/1.08) bit I am happy to pay a small premium to lock in these profits.

(My intial bet 9 months ago on Hamilton for the F1 Championship is linked below!)

http://kickingbets.blogspot.com/2006_12_01_archive.html