Strictly Come Dancing - Ricky Groves to win Week 6 - 66/1 - 1pt

I am starting to think that Ricky Groves has a chance of winning SCD (ouright). He is dancing the American Smooth this week. The dances are as follows:

Amercian Smooth - Ali, Chris, Nat, RickyG, RickyW, Zoe
Samba - Craig, Jade, Jo, Laila, Tuffers

Those who will be dancing the Amercian Smooth will have a significant advantage as this is typically highly scored. Ricky W and Ali with provide stiff competition but if Ricky G ditches the 'cheeky chappy' routine, I think the judges will reward him well. Apparently rehearsels are going well for Ricky Groves - I can see a score in the thirties. The downside is that Ricky G is more suited by Latin dances, but you can't have everything in your favour...

I tried to have 2pts, but have had to get a total of 1pts across several bookies at 66/1.

The first of many I fear.....

to "chris.trinder@googlemail.com"
date Thu, Oct 22, 2009 at 5:23 PM
subject Account Closure
mailed-by galacoral.com

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Brazil GP F1 - Rosberg 8pts win (25-1), 1pt Place

There is a raesonable likelihood of rain this afternoon at the Brazil GP. If the race is severely affected by rain, Rosberg has an excellent chance to win the race. He showed in early practice yesterday that his car is optimized for wet conditions. I've had 8 pts win at a (generous) 25/1. I've also had a small place bet (1pt) to cover my win stake, but I think he his most likely to either win or come nowhere. I'd make him a 8/1 chance to win. Due to restrictions, I've had to palce this bet across several bookmakers.

Portugal Masters - Lima - 1pt E/W 150/1

Lima has played consistently well on the Challenge Tour thsi year (finished second on the tour)and could spring a surprise in the Portugal Masters. He has an excellent record in Portugal in recent seasons which would mean I would make him an approx 66/1 chance of winning this event.

I tried to have 2pts E/W but was restricted to 1 pt E/W.

Argentina v Peru - Peru to win - 33/1 - 2pts

As per my post below, although I am fairly convinced Argentina will win tonight, there come a point when a price can simply to big. This is the case with Peru tonight - the 33/1 is too big - I'd make it a 16/1 chance (at most). It is just possible that Maradona will contrive to lose this game via a combination of poor tactics, (unlucky) finishing and weak defending.

Argentina v Peru - FGS (50-1) /AGS (16-1) - Varga - Extrabet

Argentina legend Maradona has proved to be an inept maanger - is is ludicrous that Argentina will (probably) only just qualify for the 2010 World Cup. Tonight they play Peru and although they should win the game, there is a good chance they will conceed a goal to Peru. This may well come from talented attacking midfileder Varga.

He is way overpriced at Bet365 and Extrabet for first golascsorer (50-1) / anytime goalscorer (14-1). I missed the 80-1/20-1 - most other bookies go much shorter. I've had 2pt on each.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Manuel_Vargas

Presidents Cup - Stewart Cink - Top US - 14/1 Stan James - 4pts

Stewart Cink has the strongest President's Cup record on the US team. He also has an excellent match play record. He has been in fair form recently and I think he has a great chance of being top US points scorer. At 14/1 he is great value - I'd make him an 8-1 chance.

I think the other (possible) vale bet is Sean O'Hair, but I'm sticking to a single bet at present.

Lay Phil Taylor at 1.07 - 1st Round Grand Prix 2009 - 2pts Lay Liabilty

Phil Taylor is one oif the greatest sportsmen of all time. However, he could be vulnerable tonight in the first round of the 2009 Grand Prix. Each leg requires a double to start and the match is only a best of 3 legs. Phil Taylor has won 8 of the last 11 Grand Prixes that have been held - the 3 times has lost have all been lost in the first round. I've laid Phil Taylor at 1.07 on Betfair for tonight's match - I'd make it an approx 1.2 chance.

Barrichello - F1 Championship 2009 16-1 - 10pts

I've been unable to get anyone to take my request for 40-1 at Betfair for Barrichello so I have had 10 pts at 16-1 with William Hill. This is a fair price (and nothing more) but I am keen to get a balanced book on the 2009 F1 chammpionship. Bizzarely, my worst result is now Button! (but not by much)

I have attached an image of my bets on F1 Championship... I'm pretty pleased how things have gone - it looks like I've timed my investments in F1 quite well this year!

Prix de L'Abbaye - Monsiuer Chevalier - 25-1 - 2pts Win

Monsieur Chevalier may be able to make the most of his weight for age allowance as the only 2yo in the race. The last 2yo to try this (Kingsgate Native, 2007) came 2nd and the record of 2yo's over the past decade in this race is pretty good. I think a strong paced 5f will suit the horse (he has been run the last 2 races over 6f) and the 25-1 .

On an unrelated market, I've backed Vettel to win £8K in the F1 Championship market on Betfair - now we are two races from the end of the season, I'm closing down the 'gap' in the returns between Button, Barichello and Vettel. I'm now trying to lay Barichello as he is now the worst result for me... I'm hoping someone will lay my 40-1 on Betfair over the next couple of weeks...I really need to do a P & L on these three runners!

Prize Fighter Preview - Harrison/Barrett

I think Audley Harrison may just about have enough class to win 'Prizefighter'. However, the nature of the contest (just 3 rounds for each fight) means that there is a reasonable possibility that he could win each of the 3 bouts on points. I think the 8/1 that Skybet and Boylesports are offering on this is good value. I've had 5.5 pts on this (max allowed). I'd think it was more like a 5/1 chance.

I have also been tempted by the 16/1 at Skybet on (unbeaten 8-0-0) Coleman Barrett to reach the Final (he is this price with other bookies to win it!). I have never been a big fan of Danny Williams who he would most likley meet in the Semi Final - I'd give Barrett a chance against him. I'd make Barrett a 7/1 chnace of making the final - I've had 4pts at 16/1

Japanese Grand Prix - Trulli to be fastet in Qualifying - 33/1 - 4.5 pts win, 2.5 pts place (1/5 1,2,3)

Japanase teams have an excellent qualifying record at the Japanase Grand Prix, typically overachieving compared to earlier season form. Suzuka will suit the Toyota car and Trulli has a 10-4 lead over his team mate Glock in qualifying. Trulli has already had a pole position once this year and it woudldn't surprise me to see a Toyota run relatively light in Q3 to try to steal a 'glory pole' on home turf - the car is good enough to do this. N.B. The possibility of rain also brings uncertainty meaning it is better to be on longer priced runners.

I;ve had to spread my bets around at several bookamkers as (unsuprisingly) I'm fairly limited as to what they will accept from me on F1 markets!

Japanese Grand Prix - Jenson Button to win Championship at Japanese Grand Prix - 1pt 9/1 (Stan James), 4pts 8/1 (William Hill)

Jenson Button needs to finish 20pts ahead of Barrichello and Vettel in the Championship to win the F1 title in Japan. He is currenly 15 pts clear of Barichello and 25 pts clear of Vettel. It is difficult to put an extact price on this, but I have a hunch that 9/1 is too big a price - I'd make it an approx 3/1 chance.