Britney Spears to Marry in 2008 - 4pts - 8/1 - William Hill

It is distinctly possible Britney Spears will marry again in 2008. She has separated from her hisband Kevin Federline) and she is psychologiclaly prone to rash decisions Britney is reportedly 'involved' with her (male) PA Sam Lufti, with marriage a possibilty. (Other sourcs have Lufti as reportedly gay, which might be a bit of a barrier).

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22948098-5012974,00.html?from=mostpop

Britney has alreaduy been married twice (including one for 55h rs!, annulled), so a 2008 marriage is perfectly possible.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Britney_spears

I've had 4 pts at 8/1 on this happening - I'd make it a 4/1 chance (although you can't use maths to work this one out!). It is as short as 3/1 at Ladbrokes (5/1 Skybet).

I'm still loooking at other novelty markets... no others curently strike me as great value, but still doing research.

Premiership/FA Cup Double - 12/1 - 6pts - William Hill

Prices are available for both the Premiership and FA Cup so it is relatively easy to work out what the chance of a double occuring, assuming they are unrelated events. I've done the maths and I make it an approx 6/1 chance (assuming unrelated events).

They are of course related, but if anything there is a positive correlation. A team that is strong is likley to win both events. Against this, they may also field weaker teams in the FA Cup as they are likely to also be playing in multiple competitions but I think that this is less of a factor.

Looking back in recent history, it has been achieved 3/10 years - this high rate is not suprising due to the increased dominance of the 'Big 4' clubs in both competitions.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Double

Taking current odds and recent history into account, I would make thsi a 4-1/5-1 chance. I have therefore had 6pts (max. allowed) on the double occuring.

Premiership to be decided on Goal Difference - 1pt - 50/1 - William Hill

I've checked the history of the Premiership and since it's inception in 1992 no title has been decided on goal difference (15 runnings). However, three titles (94-95, 97-98, 98-99) have been decided by only 1pt, therefore I think that the 50/1 that William Hill are offering on the title to be decided on goal difference is a too big. I'd make it an approx 10/1 chance (this is an intuitive feel - I haven;t doen the stats anlysis to back this up- any volunteers?). No team is 'running away' with the title and conceivably any of the big four teams coudl still win. I've therfore had 1pt (max. allowed) at 50/1.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Premier_League_seasons

British or Irish Trained Arc winner - 6/1 - 12 pts - William Hill

British and Irish Trianed horses have won 7 of the last 20 including 5 of the last 10Arcs. This increased domninance by British and Irish horses is primarily due to the increaed strength of the Coolmore and Godolphin breeding companies.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prix_de_l'Arc_de_Triomphe

The French older horses in training in 2008 look nothing special. Therefore I think the price for a British/Irish winner should be approximatley even money - the 6/1 at William Hill looks a great bet. I've had 12 points, the max they will allow me.

(I have confirmed with William Hill that Saeed Bin Suroor's horses will be classfied as British trained.)

Congratulations to William Hill for actually being prepared to lay a proper bet (unlike many of your competitors - you know who you are!).

US Presidential Election - John McCain - 8pts win - 20/1

John McCain is a standout 20/1 at William Hil for the US presidential election. National polls indicate a upturn in fotunes for McCain, in most part due to the success of the 'surge' in Iraq. (McCain had aligned himself with the Iraq campaign).

Guiliani 21.5
Huckabee 17.3
McCanin 15.5
Romney 14.5

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html

A poor performance by Ronmey agauinst Huckabee in the first Primary in Iowa would weaken Romney. This would leave the path clear for McCain in New Hampshire. The race for the Republican nomination would then become a three horse race between McCain, Huckabee and Guiliani. That woudl be difficult to call, hence my wish to back McCain at 20/1.

(Of course if Romney does well in Iowa, I coudl be sitting on a handful of losing betting slips!)

Hopefully, whoever wins the Republican noimination will run against Obama, meaning I will be in a win-win situtaion. Otherwise I may have to re-adjust my position by backing Clinton.

2007 - Review of performance

Above are the financial figures for 2006, 2007 and combined 2006-2007.

As you can see, the annual % profitability has increased from 50.9% to 57.1%, whilst the annual profit has decreased from £9,625 to £7,200. This was as a result of making fewer, more profitable bets. It is a delicate balance, but in 2009 I expect to bet using a similar strategy to 2008. In addition, I am also being limited in stakes for the majority of my bets - it is getting increasinly difficult to get my bets on.

I can generally get reasonable bets on at the major bookies (e.g Corals, Hills Ladbrokes), but 'bookies' (if that is wht you call them) such as Bet365 have now restricted me to £5 max. bets - I've now stopped looking at their markets.

My most successful sports are Motor Racing (all types) and Speciality bets (even better, both combined!). Politics has been the least profitable but, ironically, this is where I have probably made some of the best bets!

In terms of an Antepost position, the most important for me are

- A1 GP - I have backed Jonny Reid at 40/1 E/W (currnetly 7/2 2nd Fav.)
- Politics (Presidentail Election) - I have good positions on all the front runners other than Clinton (most bets placed thsi time last year). (Obama 11-1 (2nd Fav. 4-1), Guiliani 16-1 (3rd Fav. 6-1), Huckabee 33-1 and Gore 33-1). The Primaries should be interesting! I'm considering adding a bet on McCain at 20-1....

As ever, if you want the full .xls file, drop me an email at chris.trinder@gmail.com

Derby v Liverpool - 2pts Derby 8-1 (Draw No Bet)

Benitez (Liverpool Manager) can sometimes make strange selections/substitutions and today could be one of those days with a busy Christmas program ahead. Derby showed that they have the potential of springing a suprise - only a late equaliser ensured that they didn't take three points in their last match away to Newcastle.

Paddypower are offering a more than fair 8-1 on Derby to win with stakes returned if it is a draw. Bet365 offered 9-1 put they were only prepared to take £5 before cutting it to 8-1. Great work guys, £5 bets on Premiership games before cutting prices! Don;t give up the day job.... oops, it is your job.

Alesha to have solo UK No.1 in 2008 - 12/1 - BlueSq - 1.5 pts

I think BlueSq have quoted too bigger price on Alesha Dixon (ex-Misteeq) having a UK No.1 next year (2008). She is out of contract at present but looking to re-sign with a new label. Alesha has a new album of songs to promote and is likley to maximize sales of her album via releasing singles (whoch coudl very well go to No 1.) 2008 will be a key year - after that her SCD fame will start to taper off.

Bluesq have priced up a UK No.1 at 12-1 - Corals go a more realistic 2-1. I've had the max that BlueSq qill alow me (1.5 pts - tried to stake 4 pts.)

Osama Bin Laden to be Captured in 2008 - 1pt 33-1 - Skybet

Skybet have a number of 2008 specials. The only one I think at present is out of line is the 33/1 on Bin Laden to be captured in 2008. I would make it a 7/1 chance for the following reasons:

1. Bin Laden is likely to be in Pakistan or (less likley) Afghanistan. Pakistan and Afghanistan still remain under the control/influence of the Coalition forces.
2. He still has a large price tag on his head.
3. Several other senior Al-Qeeda operatives on the 'most wanted' list have been captured.
4. Bush would like to see Bin Laden captured before he leaves office in 2008.

Extercatte, Van der Voort and Suljovic all to win - Ladbrokes - 1pt - 200/1

Ladbrokes seem to be taking a chance on offering a 'special price' on these three darts players to win. I think the treble should be approx. 33-1. Extercatte has a real chance against Bates while Van der Voot and Suljovic are going to have to hope for off days from Lewis and Part respectively.

Will Leon be dropped by Sony BMG in 2008? - 1pt 16-1 Ladbrokes

Reality TV stars have a mixed record with future success. Winners such a Girls Aloud are still having success many years later. Most others are less sucessful. A classic 'failure' is X-Factor winner Steve Brookstein who was dropped by his record label 8 months after winning their competition.

I suspect that Leon will not have a particularly successful future with his record label. I would think that he most likley to be dropped in 2009, but if he doesn't have high sales in 2008, Simnon Cowell will not hesitate to drop him next year.

I'd make a 2008 separation a 4-1 chance (the price it is as Skybet). I'n therefore having 1pt (max. allowed) at Ladbrokes on Leon being dropped at in 2008 at 16-1.

Top Christmas Day Film - Love Actually - 6/1 - 3.5 pts (Totesport)

Regular readers of my blog will know I've backed 'To The Manor Born' as Top Christmas Day Program (at an average 20-1). By backing Love Actullay as Top Film, I've effectively got a quasi-hedge they both start at 9:30 p.m. It is of course possible that either both of neither bets could come in, but at 6/1 and 20/1 I'm prepared to take that chance.

Can Love Actually be top Chritsma Film? It is a definate possibility as it main competitors are on Chritmas afternoon. Audiences in the afternoon are signficnatly lower than in the evening. Although Love Actually will have a smaller % share of the watching audience than the afternoon films, in absolute terms (which is what is being measured) the number watching could be larger. Shrek 2 and Polar Express also clash, not heplful for films aimed at similar audiences.

I'd make Love actually a 2/1 chance and therefor I'm having 3.5 pst (max. allowed) at 6/1.

'Hat-tip' to J.O. Tobin who higlighted the chances of Love Atcually on the Betfair Specials Forum. Amongst the dross that is often posted (you know who you are!) there are interesting posts suich as this.

Update: Love Actually has moved into 4/1, still a good price.

Sports Personality Year 2008 Preview

In Olympic Years, it is best to side with those that will have success in Olympic Events. In the past three Olympiuc Years, the 1-2-3 were as follows (Olympians in bold) (2 from 4 winners, 8 from 12 places):

2004 : 1st Kelly Holmes : 2nd Matthew Pinsent : 3rd Andrew Flintoff
2000 : 1st : Steve Redgrave 2nd : Denise Lewis : 3rd Tanni Grey Thompson
1996 : 1st Damon Hill : 2nd Steve Redgrave : 3rd Frnkie Dettori
1992 : 1st Nigel Mansell : 2nd Linford Christie : 3rd Sally Gunnell

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BBC_Sports_Personality_of_the_Year

Past high performers in SPOTY have an execllent record futire record - being a previous winner is not a bar as Damon Hill showed in 1994/1996.

I have looked at British Olympians and the prospects for 2008 are:

Marathon: Paul Radcliffe (6/1) has an oustanding chnce of winning SPOTY 2008 if she wins Olympic Marthon Gold. She is a 5/2 chnce for Olympic Gold, but I can't help thinking she may struggle in the Beijing heat/smog (who can forget Athens, her only other Marthon failure). However, if she wins the Marthon I would be prepared to take a short price on her winning SPOTY 2008.

Heptathlon: Jessica Ennis (66/1) / Kelly Sotherton (50/1). Preference is for Jessica Ennis (she is improving each year. Kelly Sotheton continues to struggle with the Javelin. BlueSq make a Gold Medal winner from one of these two a 7/4 chance. They would be greatly assisted if the domimant force in this event (Kruft) didn't compete. This is possible via injury to her or if she chooses to concentrate ona single event (which is current rumour - I don't buy it myslef).

400m : Ohuruogu (33/1) - this is a competitive event and she may struggle to win Olympic Gold. Ohuruogu is additional tainted by the three missed drug tests.

EquastrianZara Philips (50/1), where the fact she is a Royal gives her extra media coverage and votes. She has qualified for Bejing 2008 and, if Toytown stys fit coudl put in a strong individual peformance.

Other than athletics, gymnast Beth Tweddle (66/1) and sailor Ben Ainslie (40/1) both have medal chances. Preference would be for Beth Tewddle due to her past SPOTY record and the fact Ainslie is not certain to complete in the Olympics.

(See article below dicussing medal prospects.)

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/08082007/58/beijing-countdown-british-hopes.html

Other than Olympians, other possible winners are :

Lewis Hamilton (will need to win the F1 World Chamionship) - (7/2)
Justin Rose (will need to win a golf major - (25/1)
Andrew Murray (will need to win to reach a final of a Grand Slam event, probably win it (other then Wimbledon when a final appearance might be enough) - (10/1)
Amir Khan - probably too early in his career - (25/1)

A footballer, cricketer or rugby player is unlikely as there are no major championships.

Conclusion

2 pts win Zara Philips - 50/1 (Corals)
2 pts win Equatstrian winning Sport - 40/1 (Corals) - (Corals limited me to 2pts on Zara Philips - not sure who else I have running for me!)
2pts win Jessica Ennis - 66/1 (Stan James)
1pt win Beth Tweddle - 66/1 (Corals)

There is market on Betfair that will allow trading during the year. This is especialy importnt on the SPOTY night as both Darren Clarke (2006) and Lewis Hamilton (2007) both traded at short prices and both finished 2nd. On the night coverage by the BBC can have a signficant effect. The BBC my well focus on the Olympics as, being a listed event, this is one of the few events where they have the rights to.

Any comments very welcome.... hopefully I can follow up with my success on 2006/Zara Philips (11/1) and 2007/Lewis Hamilton (25/1, laid at 1/3).

Gerrard to captain England in their next match - 9/2 Boylesports - 3pts

The three main candidates for next England Captain are Gerrard, Beckham and Terry. It is unlikely that Terry will be fit in time for Feb, 6th 2008 (the date of this game). Beckham could be selected, but Capello is not one to let his heart rule his read - if he wishes for Beckham to have 100 caps, I would expect him to bring bBeckhma on Beckham hsa substitute rather tham make him captain.

Boylesports are taking a chance with their 9/2 quote on Gerrard captining England in their next match (Vcbet go as short as 5/4).

Vettel - 4pts Win - Race of Champions -14-1 - BetDirect

Vettel has shown he is well suited to this event with an impressive performance in the fisrt part of this competion (Natiosn Cup). BetDirect are taking a chance in making him 14-1 - he is as short as 4-1 elsewhere.

X Factor - Same Difference - 5-1 - 12 pts.

I can't understand why Same Difference are 5-1. I'd make them a 6-4 chance. In most current polls they are polling similar to the 1-3 favourite Rhydian. Of course these polls cannot be fully trusted, but they have some measure of authenticity as they all seem to have the same approximate figures.

There are rumours that Same Difference polled similar to Rhydian last week which would also correlate with the current online polls.

Finally, Same Difference are singing a 'High School Musical' song which will surely appeal to the younger voting audience.

Update: 7.30 pm. The market was impressed with the first performance by Same Difference. I am taking advantage of this by laying my 5.8 'back' bet at 4.4. This means I am +16pts if Same Difference win and level if Leon or Rhydian win.

2007 UK Christmas No.1 w/o X Factor Winner - Katie Melua with Eva Cassidy - 1pt, 5-1

Katie Melua and Eva Cassidy both have strong, loyal followings. The fact their record is is a charity record (for the Red Cros) will do it no harm.

Midweek sales indicate that Katie Melua will be No.1 this week. X factor will (obviously) be No1 the following week (the week the betting relates to), but at 5-1 I am prepared to have 1pt at 5-1 (Paddy Power) on Katie Melua taking the No 2. spot behind X Factor. (Max. Allowed).

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/7140478.stm

The only worry is that the single is only availible at Tesco (or by download at Tesco.com) but that doesn't seem to have affected sales this week.

Xmas Day Most Watched TV Program - To the Manor Born - 16/1

Eastenders and Corrie are rightly favourites for this market, but Skybet may hve priced up the one off special of 'To the Manor Born' at too long a price at 16-1.

Last years 'race' was won by a 'one off' comedy special (Vicar of Dibly) (although a more modern comedy). An audience of approx. 12 million will probably win the event this year - this is an potentially an achievable target for 'To The Manor Born' which was highly succeful at it's peak. A 9.30 p.m. time is OK - it doesn't have a strong oppositon at this time.

The Telegraph certainly think it has chance.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/11/27/nxmastv127.xml

I tried to have 4 pts but was restricted to 2 pts by Skybet.

Update: It turns out that Skybet opened up at 33-1 - it had been backed into 16-1 before I took a look at the market. Ladbrokes are 25-1 on 'To the Manor Born' - I;ve had a further 2pts on this price (max allowed). I missed this price as Ladbrokes are not appearing in the odds comparison sites for this market.

Snooker Premier League Final - O'Sullivan to win 7-0, 7-1

The results of the last three Premier League finals were:

Ronnie O'Sullivan 7-0 Jimmy White
Ronnie O'Sullivan 6-0 Stephen Hendry
Ronnie O'Sullivan 6-0 Mark Williams

http://www.premierleaguesnooker.com/staticPage.asp?txtPageName=history

I'm more than happy to have 1pt at 40-1 at www.betfred.com on O'Sullivan winning tonights final against John Higgins 7-0. The quickplay format of thsi event suits Ronnie O'Sullivan and if he wins the first few frames, he mway steamroller Higgins. I've laso had 1pt at 14-1 on a 7-1 win in case Hendy nicks a frame.