The latest tournament at Indian Wells has shown that Djokovic is rapidly coming to the same ability as Federer and Nadal (if not surpassing them). I believe Federer is definately on the downgrade (a real suprise for him to lose to Fish in the Semi-Final). Djokovic was convincing in his defaeat of Nadal in the other Semi-Final.
Djokovic has already won the Australian Open and is now best priced as follows for the remaining three events:
0.125 French Open (Clay)
0.2 Wimbledon (Grass)
0.2 US Open (Hard)
Treated as unconnected events, this gives a chance of 0.005 (i.e a price of 200/1). However, I think he will have a successful year before the French Open and will start shorter. If he wins each event, I think the prices will change as follows.
0.2 French Open (Clay)
0.3 Wimbledon (Grass)
0.4 US Open (Hard)
Treated as unconnected events, this gives a chance of approx. 0.025 (i.e a price of 40/1). I'm therefore having 2 pts at PartyBets (http://www.partybets.com) at 80/1 on a Djokovic Grand Slam.
This bet should be seen in conjunction with my 8pts on Feder not to win a Grand Slam event this year at 11/2 - this how now come into 3/1.
N.B I missed a similar bet on Tiger Woods at 33/1 for the Grand Slam - he is now into approximately 10-1!
1 comment:
Perhaps Novak can do it in a couple of years' time when the powers of Fedex and Rafa wane a little.
I still feel that Djokovic is not at his physical peak and needs to bulk a bit more.
He faded badly last year after a hectic schedule.
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