China Open - O'Brien 125/1 - 1pt E/W (Coral)

The China Open has had somewhat suprise winners in the past three years. (2007 Dott 25-1, 2006 Willimas 20-1, 2005 Junhui 66-1). I put this down to the travel (including timne zone change) an potential lack of motivation from players with the World Championships close.

The key to this event is the fact that the draw this year is relatively lopside. Therefore, the value is to pick an E/W chance from the top half of the draw. On their day, most of these players can beat each other, so it is difficult to pick one player. Howver I think I've found a good bet with Fergal O'Brien. O'Brien has only played two events this season, a narrow 1st round (5-4) loss to Steve Davis in the Shanghai Masters and a Final appearance in the Northern Ireland Trophy. It is this latter performance that interests me, when he strung togtehr the following results:

1st Rnd: bt Higgins 5-4
2nd Rnd: bt Hawkins 5-3
3rd Rnd: bt O'Sullivan 5-2
4th Rnd: bt Murphy 6-5
Final : Lost to Maguire 9-5

He has an unknown Chinese oponenet to defeat first (Xinlong) - he is 4/11 for this. If he wins that, he will play Maguire (the only top six player in the top half of the draw). If he beats Maguire, he will need 3 more wins to get to the final and 4 to win it. For these macthes he wouldn't be much of an underdog (if at all) until the Final

I've had 1pt E/W at Coral on O'Brien at a 125/1 (he is generally availible at 100/1). Bizzarly, I was knocked back from £25 E/W but was offered instead £24 E/W ?!