Skybet have opened a market on what David Beckham will do first in the England v France game. The options (and prices) are as follows:
Subbed 4/5
Score Free Kick 9/2
Hits Woodwork 5/1
Booked 7/1
Final Whistle 16/1
Sent Off 50/1
I think this market has been seriously mis-priced. If he takes part in the game, there are only two realsitic possibilities:
- he starts, then he is most likely to be subbed (although there is a small chance he would play the whole game)
- he comes on as sub, in which case the option 'final whistle' is the most likely outcome.
Whilst I think 'subbed' at 4/5 is a fair price, (I'd make it 4/6), I thnk that 'final whistle' should be an approx 6/4 chance (with the rest making up the bookies over-round). I've therefore had 1 pt (max allowed) on 'final whistle' at 6/4 (I tried to have 4pts - I didn't think I'd get any more on!). I've been told money back if he doesn't take any part in the game, according to Skybet rep. verbally to me.
N.B. To get these prices, I had to call up (my account is very 'limited' so I coudln't simply click through from www.oddschecker.com).
2 comments:
Mr T
I've got my bet on, but I don't like the small print:
'What will Beckham do first against France? Beckham must start. For woodwork to be a winner, the ball must rebound into play or off the pitch. A goal will not count.'
It says Becks must start? That puts a different complexion on it.
Rich
...and they have changed it to just score (not from free kick). Irrespective I think it has value
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