With an increased number of teams entering from Eastern Europe, the political dimension of voting in this event has become the most signficant factor. This means that it is highly likely that the winner will come from Eastern Europe. Other factors such as quality of song, peformance on the night, language, position in final all have less of an impact than in earlier years. These factor will simply decided which Eastern Europe act will win. For an indication of what is happening, take a look at the Eurovison 2007 results (both semi-finals and finals).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurovision_Song_Contest_2007
(N.B The Eastern Bloc cna be sub categoried into ex-Yugoslav and ex-Soviet countries. I have not gone into this level of detail, but given the number of countries in each sub class this favour the ex-Soviet countries).
The setup this year has changed. There are now two semi finals rather then one, each comprising of 19 artists (with 10 qualifying), feeding through to a final of 25 teams (i.e with some pre-seleacted artists.)
http://www.eurovision.tv/page/news/belgrade-2008?id=590
What I see happeing is the Eastern Europe factor continuing to extert influence in the semi-finals (ensuring these acts qulaify). With fewer pre-qualified acts, this makes a non Eastern Europe acts even less likley to win.
Voting in the semi finals mirrors relatively strongly the final voting. However, the semi-final voting results are a closely guarded secret - there is much mis-infomration during the days between the semi-final and final. (AS I know to my cost last year!)
In terms of selecting an artist from the Eastern Europe (Ex Soviet/Russian) block, the first 4 in the ouright betting are Russia, Serbia, Armenia and Ukraine.
http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/eurovision/win-market
I think you could make a case for many East European acts (i.e. they are equally bad!). I've listened to the artists/songs and have selected Belarus.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQHOgA60LlM
It is an upbeat, Eurovison style song (80s throwback?) which I think can put in a solid performance. I think is is definately a too big price. Belarus last year managed to get 6th position with a similar song, I think the same sort of position is achievable this year. I've therefore had the following bets on Betfair (prices signficnatly shorter at conventional bookies).
1pt - 375-1 Belarus to win
2pts - 74-1 Belarus to make Top 4
4pts - 11-1 Belarus to make Top 10
I am especially keen on the 'Top 10' bet - I think this price should be much shorter.
In the past I've had a good record in the Eurovison contest - however recently I've been hopeless. By focussing on regional voting (rather than the strength of song) I hope I can revert back to winning ways!
Update: I've had a couple of points raises, both of merit. Firstly, it has been pointed out that Belarus do not have unconditional support from the Eastern Bloc. Before 2006, the support was weak at best. In 2006 they did get Easteren Bloc support, primarily due to the fact the act had recently won Russia's version of Pop Idol.
All teh above is true. However, Belarus are clearly trying to repeat the success of last year as this year's act was the 2004 Russian Pop Idol winner. On balance thsi gievs me mnore confidence in this act as he has clealey demonstrated his appeal to the 'general public' (albeit in 2004).
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