Surprisingly, in the past ten years only once have Rangers and Celtic contested the Scottish Cup Final. When you think about it, that makes sense as for both to be present they need to both avoid each other until the final and not lose any games. However, as Rangers and Celtic take so much % out of the book, there is E/W value on the other teams to make the final.
Last year, Queen of the South showed that, with luck with in the draw, a Divsion One team can make the final. In fact, on a significant amount of occasions in the last ten years, at least one Divsion One team have made the semi-finals.
I have backed three Division One teams in the last 32:
- Dunfermiline (2.5 pts E/W) 150-1
- Airdrie (1pt E/W) 500-1
- Ross County (1pt E/W) 500-1
(Some bookies are 1/2 1,2 but they had lower prices and also would only take low bets from me!)
By spreding my bets, I have a stromger chance of getting one team into the final an winning the 'place' part of the bet. If any of the teams play each other, it is not a major diadvantage as at least you guarantee a team through to the following round.
This week, in the last 32, most of the Div. One teams are playing Premiership Teams, making (amking them unlikey to qualify to the next round). The exceptions are Dunfermline and Aidrie. Dunfermline (second placed in Division One) are playing fellow Divsion One team Clyde. Dunfermline are likely to get through this match, putting them into the last 16 (4/5 to win the game). Airdrie are a weaker Divsion One Team, but are more likely to progress in this round (1/3 for their game today) as they have a relatively easy drwaw in this round.
Finally, although Ross County are playing Premiership Hamilton, they have a reasonable chance of progrsssing as Hamiltom are not a strong Premieship side and Ross County are at home (although Ross County are still outsiders in this tie at (12/5).
Update : My intial post at 10 a.m. was jsut Dunfermiline - at 12 midday I added Ross County and Aidrie! The logic still remains the same.
