Reduced voter turnout in GE 2010 (Part 2)

Those who read my blog regularly will know I'm convinced that nationally we will have a low turnout. I backed this earlier this year by placing a bet on a turnout of 55% to 60% turnout at 7/1 (20 pts).

Since then Polling eveidence from COMRES stated that

- 44 per cent said they were "absolutely certain" to vote compared with 56 per cent in February 2005; similarly 18 per cent said that they were "certain not to vote", compared with 11 per cent five years ago indicating a low turnout.

- When posed with the statement "I think the result of the forthcoming general election will be close", 70% agreed, with 25 % disagreeing. This would indicate a higher turnout.

I believe this polling evidence has supported my analysis (I think the first piece of evidence above outweighs the second) and the bookies agree. They have now moved 55-60% into 5/1. I've decided to have an additional bet at 12-1 (12 pts) on under 55% at Ladbrokes - I'd hate to be more right than I expected and lose

For another view on the turnout, Mike Smithson has written a piece for politicalbetting.com - he disagrees with me, but it is worth reading for a contrary view to mine.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/02/17/the-great-turnout-quandary/

Will Mourinho storm on (and off)....?

After the Mouurinho press conference, I've a 'gut' feeling that Mourinho may decide to make a spectacle of himself by not shaking hands with Ancelloti. I'm backing this 'hunch' with bets on the following markets at William Hill:

What Will Mourinho Do First Against Chelsea? Leave pitch after match - 2pts @ 25/1
Mourinho & Ancelotti to fail to shake hands after either leg? No, 2pts @ 16/1

Arsenal for Premership - lay back original stake for 'all green position'

I still think Arsenal are reasonable value in the Prem 2009/2010 market, but I've decided to take a prudent approach to this market (i.e. less risky) and lay back my origial stake to leave me with an 'all green' position.

Another account gets limited.....Skybet... read this email exchange (from the bottom up!)

Hi Chris
Thanks for your email.I have spoken to our traders and they have decided to up your scale factor to 5%, this is the highest they are willing to increase this to.
Kind Regards,
Skybet
____________________________

Dear Skybet,
Thank you for your email.I was previously restricted to 1% of stakes of other customers when placing bets online. Can you confirm if this restriction has now been fully removed i.e if I can place the same size stakes as other customers online? Thanks.
Regards.
Chris Trinder
____________________________

Hi Chris
Thanks for your email.Yes you should be able to get the same stakes online as you previously have been able to get via the phone.
Kind Regards,
Skybet
_______________________

Dear Skybet
Thank you for your reply. Can you confirm if I will be able to get the same stake sizes online as I have been previously able to get by phones. In the past I have been restricted online to 1% of the stakes other customers are able to place.
Regards.
Chris Trinder
______________________

Hi Chris
Thanks for your reply.You are among a group of customer who are less profitable to the company, therefore our trading team have taken the decision to only accept online business from you.I apologise for any inconvenience caused.
Skybet
___________________________

Dear Skybet,
Can you explain why this decision to not allow me to bet my telephone has been taken? If this for all customers or just myself?
Regards.
Chris Trinder
___________________________

Dear Mr Trinder,
We have made some changes to our service. With regret we have taken the business decision to stop your access to our telebet service. As such, from today your account has been set up to accept online bets only, which means that if you call our call centre you will be directed to either www.skybet.com, www.skybet.mobi or our interactive TV service to place your bets. You will only be able to place whatever the system indicates is the maximum stake for your chosen selection.

You can log on to the services with your existing user ID and a PIN. If you don?t already have a PIN or need a reminder, please contact a member of our Customer Care team on 08000 725181.
Skybet

F1 Pre-season - Day 1 Testing & Pre season bets

In the first day of testing today Massa in the Ferrari topped the timing chances, but Schumacher was competitive in the Mercedes, outperforming his team-mate Rosberg (albeit in different conditions). I've taken a look at the outright markets for the F1 Championship, and I think bwin.com are taking a chance on the some of the drivers. These are the ones who they perceive to be the 'weaker' drivers in the lineups. I think the price difference between the 'stronger' and 'weaker' drivers is too large (and the UK bookmakers agree). I've added bets (max. allowed) on these drivers to my bet on Michael Schumacher at 7/1 for 5+ race wins.

Have the markets over-reacted to Arsenal's weekend loss?

I always look for market over-reactions to a loss (or succession of losses). Try as a I might, I can't understand why the bookies have pushed out Arsenal from 9/2 to 12/1 after their loss today.

I still think Chelsea will win the Championship, but I think that it is much more likely that Arsenal will shorten rather than lengthen from the current price of 12/1. I don't think a team mid way through the season who lose to one of their two rivals should lengthen this much.

If the market adjusts to what I believe to be the correct price now (or some time in the future) I'll close out the position.

Murray to beat Federer in a Grand Slam Final 2010 - 16/1 - Totesport - 2.5pts

Totesport have opened a market on whether Murray will beat Federer in a Grand Slam Final in 2010. By finishing 2nd in the Australian Open, I think he is likley to be 2nd/3rd seeding in the Grand SLams events (he is now up to 3rd in the ATP rankings). This will mena that he is likley to be dranw to meeet Federer in the final.

Murray is 13/8 to win a Grand SLam eevent (realistically Wimbledon or teh US Open). I can see a Federer/Murray final in either Wimbledon and/or the US Open - they are 1st/2nd favs for both events. If this happens, the 16/1 on Murray beating Federer to win a Grand Slam eevent in 2010 will look big. I've had 2.5 pts (max. allowed) at 16/1.

UK General Election Turnout - 55-60% - 7-1 - 20pts

Hills, Ladbrokes and Paddy Power have a market on the % voter turnout in the next UK General Election. They have similar prices, but I think the conventional wisdom that the % will increase is wrong.

The problem is that those interested in politics have an understandably different opinion as to how likely people are to vote - they are not a good sample, and it is difficult for them to think what less interested people will do! They (rightly) see this is a critical election. They think that there will be an increased Conservative turnout which will increase the % voting. I think this will be (at least) balanced by the Labour voter 'no shows' with Labour voter dissatisfaction with Gordon Brown. In addition, the turnout will be deflated by the expenses scandal as a general negative for all politicians.

I think the most likely guide to whether a person will vote is if they have voted before (which show, over the past decades, a general decline). Looking at the % figures from the last five elections and taking all the above factors into account, I think we will have a turnout of 55-60%. I've had 20 pts (my max. stake) at 7-1 on this.

Results for 2009

Masters - Jimmy White - 6pts 33-1 to win the 3rd Quarter, 1pt E/W 200-1 (1/2 1,2)

Jimmy White (via a wildcard entry) returns today to his spiritual home of Wembley. He has shown decent form last year in minor events (winning in Bangkok and Prague (beating Higgins and Dott)). He has a relatively easy draw in the third Quarter and at 33/1 is too big a price to win this quarter. I'd make it an approx 10/1 chance (at most). It is hard to see him winning the event, but I can't resist 1pt E/W at 200/1.

Scottish FA Cup - Dundee - 4 pts E/W - 66/1- vcbet.com

Dundee have had signficant financial investment and are clear leaders of Division One. I think they are great value (E/W) at 1/3 1,2 for the Scottish FA Cup. Other than Rangers and Celtic, no Scotttsih Premiership team has lookked especially impressive this season so there is a real chance (certainly much greater 22/1) that Dundee could make the final (and the 66/1 on the win part is a fair price). The 66/1 (E/W) is availible at several bookies...

FA Cup - Any Non Premiership team to make the Semi Final - 5/2- 8pts - Betfred

If you look at he last 20 years, in 11 years Non Premierhsip teams have made the FA Cup semi-finals. With the decreased importance of the FA Cup some teams (Premiership and Championship) may field weakend teams, increasing thr proabilities of larger margin Premiership wins but also Premiserjhip teams exits.

There is no reason the think that the likleihood of a non Premiership side raeching the SemiFinals is any less likely than over the past 20 years.. probably the reverse. I would therefore make this as 4/5 chance... I've had 8 pts at 5/2.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FA_Cup_Semi-finals

Jenson Button - SBG GLobal - $200 @ 70-1

Some of you may remember this case... I placed a bet of $200 pre season with http://www.sbgglobal.com on Jenson Button at 70-1 for the 2009 F1 Championship. They have now upped their offer from even money ( :) ) to 12-1. I still believe I should be paid at 70-1.

After waiting 2 months to be paid, I've now commenced legal action. It turns out that SBG Global are owned by SBG Euro, a UK company. This should help...below is a copy of the latter I have sent today to SBG Euro (by post and email).

**********************
I have not yet received the $14K USD that I am owed by SBG Global. I have now commenced legal action to ensure I am paid this money. Attached below are scanned copies of documents that have been sent to the registered address for SBG Euro Ltd (of which SBG Global are a wholly owned subsidiary).

You now have 21 days to pay the money owed to me. I suggest this is done by a payment to my VISA credit card. If you not have these details on file, please email me and I can provide these details. Please let me know when I should expect to receive payment.

If I do not receive payment, I file a winding-up petition against SBG Euro Ltd in the UK courts. This petition is a request for the court to make a "compulsory liquidation order". An accountant will then be appointed as a liquidator and sell off SBG Euro's assets to pay the money owed to me.

If you with to contact me, I must insist this done my email to this address rather than by phone.

2010 Specials - Part 2 - William Hill

The next bookie's 2010 prices I have reviewed is William Hill. I have managed to come up with 6 bets which I think are value.

1. Michael Schumacher to have 5+ winners in 2010 F1 Championship. - 7-1 - 20pts Win

Schumacher is now a confirmed 'runner' in the 2010 F1 Season for Merecdes (ex Brawn GP). Ross Brawn is a master race tactician and designer. Brawn GP have been working on the 2010 car since mid season 2009 and I believe are likely to be competitive again. (I don't believe Schumacher would have taken this drive if this wasn't the case). Schmacher has stayed fit so I don't think age is an issue - it is more relevent that he is one of the gretest drivers of all time. He has always outerformed his team mates so I am confident he with do the same wih Rosberg.

Schumacher is currently a 5-1 chance for the 2010 F1 Championship. I think of better value is the 7-1 for 5+ wins. There are 19 races in 2010 so he will need to win > approx. 25% of the races. With rules changes for 2010 (no refulleing, narrower tyes) it is possible a single team will make a fast start (like with Brawn in 2009).

If you look at previous seasons, you can see that often more than one driver scores approx > 25% in a season (3 out of the past 5 years). The reverse is not true ie. no driver has won the chmampionship without scoring > 25% wins.

Past Season Reviews (with drivers who makes approx > 25% criteria in bold):
Top 3 Drivers in each Season

No. of Races Driver/Number of Race Wins/% Wins

2009 17 - Button 6, Vettel 4, Barricello 2
2008 18 - Hamilton 5, Massa 6, Raikkonen 3
2007 17 - Raikkonen 6, Hamilton 4, Alonso 4
2006 18 - Alonso 7, Schumacher 7, Massa 2
2005 19 - Alonso 6, Raikkonen 7, Schmuacher 1

This means either the 5-1 on Schmuchaer for the championship is too short or the 7-1 on 5+ wins is too long (I'm betting on the latter as it is a less popular market). Labrokes do a similar market and make it and approx 4-1 chance - I'd make it an approx 3-1 chance.

2. Any England Bowler to take a Test Match Hatrick - 8-1 - 4pts Win

Suprisingly, England bowlers have taken hatricks relatively often in Test matches (past 20 years reviewed) - 1995, 1999, 2004, 2008 i.e approx 1 in every 5 years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Test_cricket_hat-tricks

There is a reasonable test program this year (inclusing 2 x test series against Bangladesh) so there is no reason to think this year will have any different chance. BlueSq are going 9/2, a much more accurate price.

3. A European trained winner of the Melbourne Cup 8-1 - 4 pts

On bare reading of stats., 8-1 would seem the approximately correct price as Europe have had two winners in the past 20 years (1992/2003).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Melbourne_Cup_winners

However, we have been very close on several other occasions recently. I think the BlueSQ price of 3/1 is slighly too short (but a more accurate price than 8-1 - I'd make it an approx. 9/2 chance).

4. Capello to receive a Knighthood in 2010 - 100/1 - 4pts win

England are an approx 6-1 for the World Cup. Whilst I think this is too short, I would still make them no more than a 10-1 chance. If England win the World Cup, I think there is good chance (even money?) that Capello will be awarded an (honourary) Knighthood at end 2010. Ramsey receive a knighthood for 1966, and in these 'celeb' times, there is no reason to think that Capello won't also recieve one. I'd make this an approx 20-1 chance.

5. Pete Doherty to receive a custodial sentence in 2010 - 5-1 - 4pts win

Doherty is treading a very fine line with continual drug (re)offences. I cannot see the judicary allowing him many more chances. He also has potential crimianl proceedings for a hit and run incident (primarily invovling his manager).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Doherty

6. First Celeberity Couple to Divorce in 2010 - Tom Cruise/Katie Holmes- 50-1 - 2pts Win

Tiger & Erin Woods are far too short at 1-3 to be the first couple to divorce, meaning there has to be value at on the other runners. I can't suggest I am an expert in this area, but I think (divorcee) Cruise may have a 'rocky' year. I'm going to have to get a subscription to Heat.

Full list of runners (and odds) below

Tiger and Erin Woods 1/3
Kerry Katona and Mark Croft 4/1
Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie 7/1
Ashley and Cheryl Cole 10/1
Charlotte Church and Gavin Henson 16/1
Roger and Mirka Federer 25/1
Wayne and Coleen Rooney 33/1
Tom Cruise and Katie Holmes 50/1
David and Victoria Beckham 50/1

2010 Specials - Part 1 - Skybet

At Christmas, my (betting) thoughts turn to yearly specials. These can sometimes be poor value, but amongst the dross are a few gems. The first review I've made is of Skybets's 2010 Specials markets. If anyone can spot and value bets I've missed, please post as a comment or, if you would prefer, send to chris.trinder@gmail.com.

1. Golf - An Amateur to win on the Europen Tour - 7-1

Amateurs have have had a suprisingly good record on the European tour recently. There have been three wins (two in 2009, one in 2007) so 7-1 is a great price. I think it should be much shorter (2-1?). I've had 6 pts (max. allowed). This could make for some interesting viewing of final rounds....

2. Tennis - Murray to win 7 (or more) ATP titles - 7-1

Murray won 5 ATP titles in 2007 and 6 ATP titles in 2008. Nadal is less of a threat now (but Del Potro is more of a threat). I woudl think Murray will probably win approx 6/7 singles titles so 7-1 on 7+ titles is a graet bet... I'd make it an approx 6-4 chance at most. I've had 8pts (max. allowed). It should keep me interested in watching the Men's ATP Tennis for the year!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Murray

3. Cricket - Top Test Score to be greater than 735 - 16-1

The 3 highest test scores last year were:

765
760
749

(all of which would have made this bet payout). Unless I am missing something, the 16-1 is excellent value - I think this should be an odds on shot. I've had 1.5pts (max allowed).

http://stats.cricinfo.com/ci/engine/records/team/highest_innings_totals.html?class=1;id=2009;type=year

4. Snooker - World Championship to have a Century scored in the final frame - 9-1

This has occured in the following years: 2009, 2003, 1998, 1995. I'd therefore think it is probably an approx 4-1 chance. I've had 3 pts at 9-1 (max. allowed).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:World_Snooker_Championships

I will be doing reviews over the next 2-3 days of each of the other bookies markets.

P.S. 2 Bets I missed were 'Six 6s in a Internatial Twenty20 Over' highlighted in a comment below at 50/1) - now into 3/1 (priced changed while I was doing my analysis) :( and 'Top Test Indiviudal Score to be > 313'... this was priced at 6/1, now into 5/2. The new prices are just fair.

Kempton Christmas Hurdle - Straw Bear - 80/1 - Stan James - 2pts E/W

Straw Bear has been mainly chasing recently (with little success). He wisely has returned to hurdling and takes on the 2009 Christmas Hurdle, a race he won in 2007. His run in this race 2008 was too bad to be true (although I haven't been able to find an explanation). After his poor hurdling re-appearance this year he scoped badly, so that can be disregarded (as can his chasing runs). If he returns to his 2007 form, I think he has a live chance. I've had 2pts E/W (1/4 1,2) at 80/1 at Stan James.

Arsenal v Hull - Zayatte - 16/1 - Anytime Goalscorer - Paddy Power

Arsenal have showed defensive vulnerabilities this season and think Hull will probably get a goal today (possibly from a set piece). Hull Defender Kamil Zayatte has scored twice this season and I can see him getting this goal... I'd make him an approx 10-1 chance to do so. I've had 2pts at 16-1.

Will Tiger Wood's personal problems affect his Golf preformance?

When sportsmen have problems in their personal life, it often reduces their sporting performace. Tiger Wood's might now move resolved his perosnal issues (and enhance his performance)... however I think it is more likely he will have further "issues" next year, made worse by the media attention.

I've therefore had the follwoing bets at Skybet:

To Break Sneads PGA Tour Wins Record (2013 or later) - 9/1 - 1pt (tried to have 10pts)

Woods currenntly has 71 PGA titles - he will need to reach 83 to beat Sam Snead's record (i.e. another 12 titles). He is currently accumulating titles as follows:

2009 - 6
2008 - 4
2007 - 7
2006 - 8
2005 - 6

ie. approx 6 a year. It is easy to see that this average could drop to 4 a year over the next 3 years - 9/1 for this to happen is a more than reasonable. (I appreciate he was injured for the 2nd half of 2008 - this still doesn't substatially change the average PGA titles per year).

Tiger's Next Major Win (2012 or Later) - 10/1 - 1pt (tried to have 10pts)
Tigers Next Major Win (No More Major Wins) - 50/1 (this pays out if he retires before winning anothe rmajor) - 0.5 pts (tried to have 2pts)

Tiger Woods did not win a Major in 2009 (when his was fully fit) and only won a single Major each year from 2007-2009. I can easily seee him failing to win a major in the next 2 years.

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With the continual restriction in my stakes (now from all major bopokmakers - I've just received another "account closed" letter), I'm probably going to either start a "Veitch" like approach or perhaps focus on different areas of investment.

I guess I should take it has a complement that I can't get my bets on!

Betfair Chase - Halcon Generladis - 20/1 - 2pts Win

Halcon Generladis goes well fresh, will be favoured by the heavy ground and likes the course (Haydock). I think he has a better than 20/1 chance of winning this race (14/1?). I've had 2pts win at Betfair.

IACGMOOH - Katie Price - 10/1 - 4pts

5th in Series 3, Katie Price aka 'Jordan' has a serious chance of winning this event. There have rarely been such a high profile contestant. Critically, she will divide the audience in a love/hate way. As viewers are voting for participants (rather than to 'eveict'), this plays into her hands. I think she is reasonable value at 10/1 - a final three appearance is likely.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I%27m_a_Celebrity%E2%80%A6Get_Me_out_of_Here!_%28UK_TV_series%29