Massa to shine in USA - 4pts win, Fastest Lap (12-1), 4pts Handiciap Win (+15s) - Bet365

I belive that the Ferraris will have a signficant advantage in the USA Grand Prix (confirming qualifying form). An option would be to back Michael Schumacher at 1-2, but that is not my kind of bet - I believe that the difference between Mass and Schumachr is not massive. However, as team orders may play a part I am also reluctant to back Massa outright.

I seriously considered 5/2 on the Dual Forecast. However I believe I've come up with two better bets (which will both have a reasonable chance of happening if Ferrari dominate)

Massa to produced fastest lap - 12-1. Michael Schumacher is 5/6. I don't believe there should be such a difference.

Massa on the Handicap (see times below). I think that Massa with probably finish closer than 15s to Michael Schumacher. I can see a scenario where the Ferrais dominate and Masa is allowed to finish approx 2-3 s behind Michael Schumacher.

Michael Schumacher (Finish Time minus 0 min 0 secs)
Fernando Alonso (Finish Time minus 0 min 8.0 secs)
Giancarlo Fisichella (Finish Time minus 0 min 15.0 secs)
Felipe Massa (Finish Time minus 0 min 15.0 secs)
Kimi Raikkonen (Finish Time minus 0 min 20.0 secs)
Rubens Barrichello (Finish Time minus 0 min 45.0 secs)
Juan Pablo Montoya (Finish Time minus 0 min 45.0 secs)
Jenson Button (Finish Time minus 0 min 50.0 secs)
Jacques Villeneuve (Finish Time minus 0 min 55.0 secs)

Jarno Trulli - 2pts E/W USA Grand Prix Qualfying - 80-1

Jarno ran light in qualifying for the Canadian Grand Prix, giving him 4th place on the grid. If Toyota reapeat this strategy, he has a reasonable chance of securing a top 3 position in qualfying.

Jarno was first in the qualifying in the inaugral running of the race last year so clearly has a liking for the track.

Queen Cleopatra - 3.40 - Curragh 8-1 - 2pts win

The 3 yo fillies get a significant amount of weight in this race. This may mean we see an upset with Queen Cleopatra (placed in 2 classics) winning. 3 yo olds don't have a great record, but the trainer thinks the horse is progressive (her run in the Prix Diane last time was especially impressive).

Wimbledon Mens - S. Grosjean (150-1) 3pts Win, Gonzalez (400-1) 1pt Win (Betfair), Agassi 250-1 (Totesport) 1pt Win

Federer is rightly the favourite for the Men's Chamionship. However, he has a tough draw in the first quarter and it would not be a massive shock if went out in an early round. For that reason, I'm swerving him at 1-2.

The 2nd and 4th quarters are both weak - I can't see it is very likely that the winner will come from either of these quarters. However, at 250-1 I'm having 1pt on Agassi to roll back the years... there are cetainly worse 250-1 shots (as short as 50-1 in a place)!

For my other bets, I'm concentrating on the 3rd quarter. This is a tough quarter containing both Hewitt and Roddick. However, I'm not convinced either are at their best at the moment, so I've selected as my main bet Grosjean at 150-1.

Grosjean has excellent Wimblenon form (two 1/4 finals and a semi-final in the past 3 years and is a more than fair price.)

I can't resist 1 pt on Gonzalez (who has a reasonable Wimbledon record) - he is a short as 50-1 at conventional bookmakers!

2pts Frank Lampard - Budweiser MoM - England v Ecuador - 9-1

The Budweiser MonM is typically given to the goalscorer in the match. With Carrick playing a holding role, Lampard and Gerarrd (especially Gerrard) will get forward more. I suspect that the Budweiser MoM will go to either Gerarrd (6-1) or Lampard (9-1) (if they score).

I'm having 2pts on Frank Lampard at 9-1 .... he won this award in an earlier game.

6pt Win Sam Hornish 11-2 (Sporting Odds), 1pt 6-1 Dan Wheldon (Sports Interaction)

Hornish (11-2) and Wheldon (6-1) are both great prices to win the Suntrust Indy race tonight. Castroneves is too short ... his pole position may be (a little) false, with only one qualifying sesion

Both Hornish and WHeldon are suited by the track and I'd be suprised if one of them didn't the race.

Westmead Hawk to win 2007 Greyhound Derby - 201 - 4pts Win

If (and its a big if) Westmead HAwk enters the 2007 Greyhound Derby (and it is held at Wimbledon), 20-1 is going to look a very big price in a year's time.

I'm having 4pts win on Westmead Hawk to prove he is the greatest dog of all time (rather than 'just' an oustanding champion).

Sweden to progress to 1/4 finals. (World Cup) - 7/2 Betfair - 6 pts

Germany are the most likely to qualify for the quarter finals, but 7/2 is an insult to Sweden. Germany's form against top teams has been weak in the past 4 years and they were not paricularly impressive in the group stage.

Sweden have not been in great recent form either, however at 7/2 to progress further they have to be backed.

Booze Allen Classic - Rich Beem - 1pts E/W 150/1

Rich Beem has a real liking for this course. He frequently does well on this course, despite having poor recent form. This seaosn he has bits and pieces of form (better than usual!) whch make him an excellent E/W chance at 150/1.

Majestic Missile - 1.5 pts win 25-1 3.10 Ascot

Majestic Missile is an underrated 5f sprinter... some solid performences last year means that the 25-1 is a more than fair price.

Ignore its run this year, when he was drawn badly and ran keen early. In addition, he was not harsly treated once it was clear he wasn't going to win.

Malinga - Man of teh Match - 2nd ODI - Sri Lanka v England 22-1 Bet365 - 2pts

Malinga is, I believe, still underrated. A 5 wicket haul will probably be enough to win MoM. This is well within the grasp of a talented bowler like Malinga.

Berdych to beat Federer - 8.25/1 Betfair - Garry Weber Open - 4pts

Berdych is a great bet at 8.25/1 to win the final of the Garry Weber Open. Federer has not been playing great in this tournament (he has been taken to 3 sets in 3 of the 4 matches) and this match is ripe for an upset to end Federe's 40 match unbeaten stretch on grass.

Berdych has the advantage of being one of the few palyers to have beaten Federer (in 2004) so will have the belief to win the match.

If Federer win's this tournament, it will be 4 wins in 4 years, but he has admitted he is both mentally and physically tired after a long season.

Allmendinger (20/1, 2pts E/W), Junqueira (16/1 2pts E/W), Clarke (66/1 0.5 pts E/W) - Portland Grand Prix, Champ Cars

I've added to my Di Matta bet (3th on Grid, 25-1 E/W) with the following at Stan James.

Allmendinger (20/1, 2pts E/W) (2nd on Grid)
Junqueira (16/1 2pts E/W) (1st on Grid)
Clarke (66/1 0.5 pts E/W) (6th on Grid)

I'm not sure what Stan James are doing, but they are plainly wrong. If you have any doubt, check other bookies prices e.g Sportingodds.com - Allmendinger 9/4! I'd be very disappointed if, at the very least one of the 4 drivers werer not placed (returning my stakes) and there is signficant upside scope.

I'd have more iff StanJames would have let me......

Update: The markets are still all over the place.... I'ved added 0.75 pts win on Paul Tracy (Stan James, 20-1 (7-2 at Sporting Odds!) and 0.5 pts win on Clarke 50/1 Sporting Odds (12/1 Stan James!). Just waiting for Bourdais to take out Wilson on the 1st corner!

2nd Update: SportsInteraction have joined in the fun... I've now had a further 0.5 pts E/W at 120/1 (yes, 120/1) on Dan Clarke.

3.10 York Trafalgar Bay (2pts Win, 18.0) Pearly Wey, Trafalgar Bay 0.5 pts Reverse Exacta

Pearly Wey and Trafalgar Bay have what I believe to be the stronget (connected) form of the race. Pearly Wey is thought to have progressed well since their last meeting (hence his shorter price), but this is more than factored in. Trafalgar Way at 18.0 is a good price on Betfair.

Both horses tempt me, so I'm having a 0.5 pts Reverse Exacta.

Brazil v Australia - Australia to win in 90 mins - 16-1 expekt.com - 2pts

Australia are too big at 16-1 to beat Brazil. Brazil were not impressive in their first match, and this game is ripe for a shock result. Australia play agressive football, which is the ideal way to play against Brazil.

My only concern is that Hiddink (Australia's talented manager) may field a 2nd strength side...

Update: I've added to this 2pts on Australia at 10-1 (Draw No Bet) at Bet365.

Colin Montgomerie - Sports Personality of the Year - 33-1 - 0.75

Monty is 7-1 for the US Open, but available at 33-1 for SPoTY. Unless England win the World Cup (and there is a star player), I think Monty will proabbly win SPoTY if he wins the US Open. [He also has chances in the final 2 Majors].

Therefore I'm having 0.75 pts @ 33-1 on SPoTY - I'd have more but the bookies will only allow me to have 'buttons'....

Da Matta - Grand Prix of Portland - 2pts E/W - Bet365

This week has seen a merry-go-round in Champ Cars with the very experienced Da Matta leaving the back marker team Dale Coyne Racing to join one of the very top teams RuSPORT.

He is now with a top team and he loves Portland - winning the last 2 times he has visited - last year and in his championship winning year of 2002 (was in F1 during 2003 and 2004). I'm having 2 points Each Way with Bet365 at the outstanding 25-1 - he should be single figures.

Marquez - 1pts First, 1pt Last Goal scorer. Mexico v Iran

Mexico central defender Marquez has an excellent goal scoring record. His is great value at a generally available 25-1. I;m placing the bet with Paddy Power who return stakes if the last goal is a headed goal.

Olof Mellberg - Fisrt Goalscorer - 1pt E/W 40-1 Sweden v Trinidad and Tobago

Sweden are strong favourites to win this game. They haven;t been in great form lately, but T/T are one of the weakest teams in the World Cup.

Defender Olaf Mellberg could exploit any weaknesses in the Trinidad and Tobago defence (crucially missing Marvin Andrews).

I'm having 1pts E/W at Totesport at 40-1 (1/3 1.2.3)

John Terry - First/Last Goal Scorer, Anytime Goal Scorer - England v Paraguay

Paraguay are weak at pieces (the centre backs are relatively short), so I've selected John Terry to exploit this. There are 2 great prices available.

2pts First Goal Scorer (Free Last Goal Scorer bet) 18-1 -Totesport.
2pts Anytime Goal Scorer 11/1 - Interwetten.

World Cup 2006 Preview

Outright

I think Spain are underrated at 18-1 (8pts win). Known as underachievers, I think they will beta Brail in the ¼ finals and go onto win the trophy.

It is quite usual for outsiders to reach the semi-finals. At bigger prices I fancy at least one of Serbia and Montenegro/Ivory Cost to qualify from the Group C ‘Group of Death’. Consequently
I’ve backed Serbia and Montenegro (100-1, ¼ 1.2.3.4) and Ivory Cost (90-1, ¼ 1.2.3.4) (both
2pts E/W).

Top Goalscorer

I’ve already posted Toni (Italy) (2pts E/W 33-1) and Burgetti (2pts E/W) 66-1. I am adding to that 2pts E/W on Frei (Switzerland). All are the main goal scorers for their countries and have excellent place chances.

Group Results

As mentioned above, I think Group C is a really competitive Group., and think the prices on the

4 teams should be much closer than they are. I am therefore having 2pts on the Serbia and Montenegro/Ivory Cost Dual Forecast (33/1).

At more speculative odds, I’m having ½ pt 100-1 on Argentina to score zero points.

Top Team Goalscorer

With Rooney not playing until after the Group games, David Beckham has a great chance of scoring most England Goals. I’ve had 2pts at 16-1 on this outcome.

Birchall could play in an advanced midfield role for Trinidad and Tobago and is a big price alternative to current leading scorer John. I think Yorke is way to short in this market. I’m having 2pts at 28-1.

A similar statement can be made about Bresciano for Austrila – he is a more than fair price at 12-1. I’m having 2pts on this.

Top Pairs Goalscorers

Both the Swedish pairs (22-1) and Mexico pairs (33-1) look good outsiders in this market, I’m having 2pts on each.

Miscellaneous

I can’t resist 4pts on Owen to score the 1st England Headed goal (5-1).

Casillas (Spain) is a great keeper and, like Oliver Khan last time, can win the ‘Golden Ball’ player of the tournament. I’ve had 2pts at 150-1.

In all, a total investment of 46.5 points… approximately ½ my profits from this year!

Sam Hornish - Indy 500 - 4/1 - 5ps win Sporting Odds.

The greatest motor race takes place tomorrow and it is a long way from Monaco! It is the Indy 500 and there is an outstanding bet. The polesitter and best driver (with the strongest team) should be a clear favourite.

The onbly potential danger are is tem mate Castroneves and Dan Wheldon. However, I expect this to be Hornish's year.

BMW Chamionship - Trevor Immelman - 20/1 2pts win

Immelman is in great forman present (11-2-2) and was 2nd here 3 years ago. I think he has a great chance and is a more than fair price at the genrally availible 20/1.

Man of the Match - England v Sri Lanka - Lasith Malinga - 22-1 - 2pts win

Malinga will have a point to prove, having been left out from the 1st test. A good performace (5 wicket haul) against Sussex means he is bang in form. All eyes will be on Muralitharan, but I think Malinga may suprise if Enland put on a poor show.

Next Labour Leader - John Reid 1.5pts 14-1 Stan James.

Favourites don't have a great record in party leadership elections.

John Reid has the most to lose if Gordon Brown becomes the next labour leadewr and is hence the most likley to stand against him.

If/when he stands he would have an approx 3-1 chance, so the 14-1 at Stan James is a great price. Unfortunatley they will only allow me 1.5 pts. I'm trying to get more at Betfair...

Big Brother- Any Other Winner - 4pts - Beftair.com

This group of Brig Broither housemates are freaks and weirdos. The 'Golden Ticket' winner is likely to be a one of the favourites.... many people remember 'Charlie and the Chocoalte Factory'.

There is also the possibility of other entries....

At 10-1, I think 'Any Other Winner' is a great price.

Eurovision Song Contest - Turkey, 2pts E/W 100-1

To win the Eurovision Song Contest, the factors I believe are the following:

1. Country - Baltic/East European country- many of these countries give each oither points. Now then no. of runers have been enalrged, I think it will be a long time before we see a West European winner.
2. Strong Semi-Final appearance - unfortunately this information is not availible!
3. Position - Late as possible appearance - means you are fresh in the mind of the voters.
4. Language - Difficult to win with a song not sung in English.

Using these factors, I'eve slected Turkey. I've also respect for Russia, Romania and Greece, howveer all are much shorter prices.

The factors in favour of Turkey are the following:

- Position - very late runner
- East European
- Qualified via Semi Final... so was in the top half!

There is a concern over language as there are both a Turkish and English versions.... not sure which verison she will sing.

The song is fair (although a little 'spoken'), and she is reasonably attractive. She is also an experienced performer who should not be overawed by the situation. As the event is in Greece, she will get good crowd support. She is a little 'static' in the video but I'm sure her stage show will be better - apparently she peroformed well in the semis.

2pts Win - 2.45 Newbury - Common World - 25-1

Common World's form is below that of Soviet Song but not that far of the other runners in this race. The Soft ground means that a surprise is more likely, and I'm plumping for Common World at 25-1.

Spanish Grand Prix - 1pt E/W - Ralf Schumacher 100-1

Alonso and M. Schumacher are likley to dominate this race, but the 3rd place is up for grabs. With the Mclaren cars back on the grid, the race for 3rd is particularly open this week.

Ralf Schumacher is 12-1 for a Podium position (probably an accurate price... I'd make it a 10-1 chance), so by backing him E/W you are effectively getting a 'free' win bet.

FA Cup Final - Man of the Match - Gerrard, Any Goal Keeper

Gerrard is a solid favourite for this at 4-1 (the 13-2 early this week was great value). However, as the value has now disappeared, I'm siding with 'Any Goal Keeper' at 16-1. (betdirect.net)

Either goalkeeper could play great game and keep their side in the match... and then their is the possibility of penalties. (BBC MoM)

Update: I've found Sportingodds.com have put up 6-1 on Steve Gerrard! This can't last for long, I'm having 4pts on this (Sky MoM)

Boxing - 0.5 pts on each Rd 6-9 inclusive - Mayorga - 66-1 William Hill.

De LaHoya is a superb fighter, but age may be catching up with him. Mayorga is a street fighter who will look to win inside the distance (as he is likely to be outmatched on points). If De La Hoya has not fully prepared, a shock outcome could be on the cards.

3.50 Newmarket - Something - 16-1 Ladbrokes (Guranteed Early Morning Price)

I've had 2pts win on Something at 16-1 . Highly reagrded by trainer Terry Milles, and will be well suited by dropping back to 6f (he clearly didn't stay over 1 mile at a Group race at Sandown last time).

Droppiong back to handicap companyl and with a favourable draw in stall 29, I think he has every chance off top weight.

1.55 Haydock - Ken's Dream - 16-1 Ladbrokes (Guranteed Early Morning Price)

I've had 2pts win on Ken's Dream at 16-1. He looked impressive at Plumtton last time (apart from a final flight blunder!) and off a low weight can win this handicap hurdle.

Ralf Schumacher - European Grand Prix, Outright & Qualifying

Ralf Schumacher has good recent qulaifying form and has a liking for this circuit. He is 3rd in final practice this morning. Consequently., I think he is over priced in both the qualifying and ourtight markets.

I've had 1pt E/W @ 40-1 (Qualifying) and 1pt E/W @ 80/1 (Outright). The latter bet will look big if he makes top 3 in qualifying.

2000 Guineas - 4pts win - Horatio Nelson - 7-1

Horation Nelson has the strogest form and shoudl be suited by the trip/ground. At 7-1 he is a great price, I;md make him close to halve that price.

Keiron Fallon has chosen Gerorge Washington but this wouldn't be the fisrt time a jockey has been on the'wrong' horse. Although O'Brien feels he will come on from the race, I am sure he will be fit enough to win this race is he is good enough.

2000 Guineas/Derby - Ladbrokes Special Doubles

I am keen to oppose Geroge Washington with the doubts regarding his stamina and temperament. I am planning to do this by backing the next 2 in the betting (Sir Percy, Horatio Nelson) in 2000 Guineas/Derby Doubles:

2pts Horatio Nelson to win 2000 Guineas/Derby (25-1)
2pts Sir Percy to win 2000 Guineas/Derby (20-1)

These horse were 1st and 2nd in Dewhirst last year which is rock solid form.

Both have great chances in the 2000 Guineas which, if they win, will mean they will start favourite for the Derby (both have breeding that indicates that they will run well at by both 1m and 1m 4f).

Billy Mayfair 1pt E/W 66-1 - Wachovia

Billy Mayfair has decent recent & course form. I'm having 1pt E/W at the generally availible 66-1. I also have a liking for Mickelson @ Furyk, but these are much shorter prices.

Hibernian v Rangers - Hibs @ 9-1 (Coral Shops) - 2pt win

Corals over underestimated Hibs' chance of winning... 9-1 is an insult, I'd make it a 5-1 chance at most. I'm not keen on backing in individual matches, but this chance is too good to miss.

Top World Cup Goalscorer - Burgetti - 66-1 - 2pt E/W

Those of you are follow my gambling exploits will know I'm already on Luca Toni (Italy) at 33-1 (2pts E/W) for top World Cup goalscorer (now top priced 25/1)

To this I'm adding 2pts E/W on the Bolton striker Burgetti (aka the 'Desert Fox'). He is the leading striker for Mexico, who have a strightforward qualification group (Portugal, Iran and Angola). This means that they are likely to both score goals in the group stage and progress to the knockout stage.

The knockout stage is where it gets tricky with a tie against Holland/Argentina, however by this stage he may have already picked up 2-3 goals.

James Collins - 1st Goal Scorer - West Brom v West Ham - 1pt E/W - WIll Hill

James Collins has scored 2 goals in 13 appearances (both 1st goals). For this goals/games ratio, he is good value at 40-1 at William Hill.

I'm having 1pt E/W.

Update: Collins was rested, so it is stakes returned.

William Hill Greyhound Derby - Larkhill Jim - 200-1 - 1pt win - Betfair

Larkhill Jim (trained by Seamus Gaughan) ran a very respectable 28.85 over course (Wimbledon) and distance (480m) on April 22. This is a similar time to to previous runs over the 480m in Ireland.

I've looked at the previous 10 runnings of the Derby at the average winning time is 28.67. Therefore Larhill Jim would need a little improvement to feature in the final but, if he gets there, by trading on Betfair I will be able to lock in a profit.

Position after 18 Weeks

After 18 weeks:

Points staked on settled bets = 287
Points returned on settled bets= 440
Profit on settled bets = 53.3 %

Points staked on unsettled bets = 34

Steve McClaren - another trade! (Lock in 16pts profit).

At the risk of boring everyone with this, I've just laid Steve MClaren at 1.92 (24pts staked) to lock in a (further) profit of 16pts.

I thinl they final opportunity for trading on this market will be if there is a false rumoumour regarding an announcement having been made. I;m sure an announcemnet WILL be made this week... the FA can't let this go on much longer!

3.20 Sandown - Betfred Gold Cup - 2pts win Risk Accessor (Betfair)

Risk Accessor is an unreliable horse but has the ability to win a rac e like this. After diving out of the course the last time he was at Sandown, he had 2 repectable runs at Chelteham and Aintree. He is a short as 12-1 at Stan James (25-1 Betfred), but I'm taking a chance at 33-1 on win only at Betfair.

Steve Mclaren - Next England Manager - New trading opportunities.

I reckon there may be more twists and turns in the next England Manager market. Due to my previous trades, I've backed 6pts on Steve Mclaren @ 7.6.

I think there may well be an opportunity to lay Scolri at 1.3.... it is possible that, for whatver reason, the FA can't come to an agreement with him (e.g. if they wish to mnake an immediate announcement (.e before the World Cup) which the Portguses FA won't allow). In this case there will be an opportunity for further trading!

5pts win Alonso - San Marino Grand Prix - 4-1 Betfair

Although Alonso is back in 5th on the grid, he is the class of the field this year. Provided he is not held up too much by the Hondas (and Massa), he is likely to overhall even money favourite Michael Schumacher.

4-1 is a great price, I'm having 5pts win.

Luis Garcia - 1st Goal Scorer - 14-1 Liverpool v Chelsea- 2pts

Both Gerrard and Garcia have good goals/matches ratios. Although Gerrard is the proverbial 'big game' player, I've a slight preference for Garcia due to the fact he will probbaly play in a more forward role today than usual.

The 14-1 at William Hill and Victor Chancdler is more than fair... I'm having 2pts on 1st goalscorer.

Sunderland (8-1) to beat Portsmouth - 2pts win.

Portsmouth are playing much better recently, and are the 'obvious' choice to win this game. They are in despearate need of the points, unlike Sunderland who have nothing to play for.

However, everything in betting depends on value... and, at as short of 1-3, they are no bet. Instead, I'm siding with Sunderland at the generally availible 8-1 to pull off a shock win.

Jon Wong - 1st Elimination - 9-1 - Paddy Power Irish (Poker) Open

Vincent Mellin an Ian Woodley have both too many cjhips and to much experience to go out early. Therefore the only other value options are Brendan Ruane, Conor Smth, Jon Wong and Paul Daly

Paul Daly is rightly favourite for first to be eliminated. However, at 1-7 he is too short. To stay in Paul Daly will nee top double up twice, but he will have planned the correct time to move all his chips in.

Brendan Ruane has signficantly more chips than Conor Smith, so he is avoided. It therefore comes down to Conor Smith and Jon Wong, with marginal preference for Jon Wong as, in a head up with Conor Smith, Jon will be out if he loses (which wouldn't be the case the other way around).

I can see Conor and Jon playing perhaps too patiently waiting for Paul Daly to be eliminated.

A much better price is 9-1 on Jon Wong to be eliminated first.

Crawley - Top Run Scorer - 2006 - County Championship - Select 9 - 4pts win

Ladbrokes have formed a market with a selecetd 9 County Championship Players.

These are Hussey (Notts), Knight (Warwicks), Smith (Middlesex), Lehman (Yorks.), Loye (Lancs), van Jaasveld (Kent), Adams (Sussex), Benkenstein (Durham) and Crawley (Hants).

Crawley scored the highest no. of runs last year (although it was relatively close) so I would make him an apprxoimately 6-1 chance. For some reason Ladbrokes make him the 12-1 outsider!.... I'm having 4pts win @ 12-1 (another option was E/W 1/4 1.2.3, which is very fair).

Irish Grand National - 1pt win Supreme Developer - 40-1

The Irish Grand National is a very open race with many horses in with a chance. I think the favourite should be taken on. I've backed Ferdy Murphy's Supreme Developer @ 40-1, but you can make a case for several others.

First Goalscorer - Chelsea v Everton - Leon Osman - 25-1 (BlueSq) - 1pt

Leon Osman is likely to play in a (fairly) forward position today. He has netted 3 goals in the past 5 games. Although Chelsea are heavy favourites, this is more than compensated by the 25-1 availible on Lean Osman.

I'm not having much luck on first goal scorer bets at the moment, hopely this will change today!

Snooker , World Chamiponship - additional bets (Market Mistakes)

Interwetten have not updated their prices on the Snooker World Chamionship, even though some of the fisrt round matches are complete. I'm therfore tacking advantage of this by adding the following bets to my portfolio:

4 pts win Shuan Murphy @ 9-1 (currently 5-1 elsewhere)... from my previous post, I'm not a massive fan of his, but 9-1 is too good to miss.

0.5 pt win Mark Williams @ 20-1 (currently 10-1 elsewhere)

I am also tempted to add Ken Doherty @ 25-1 (currently 10-1 elsewhere) , but I already have 4pts on him at 28-1 at William Hill via the 'Rest of the World' market.

Cricket - Divison One - Nottinghamshire - 4pts win - 5-1

Nottinghamshire are (very solid) joint favourites at a generally available 5-1 for Division One. They where champions last year (from Hants, Sussex), and I can see no reason why the same team should not go close again.

Position after 16 weeks.

After 16 weeks:

Points staked on settled bets = 259
Points returned on settled bets= 401
Profit on settled bets = 54.8 %

Points staked on unsettled bets = 39

Steve Mclaren - Next England Manager - Close Position - Lay @ 1.65

Im now closing my position on next England Manger (Steve Mclaren). In my post on 12/02 /2006 , I staked 2pts at 33/1. I'm now laying this back at 1.65 making a locked in profit of 40pts.

I've been caught on previous Next Manger markets in the past, so I am glad to be able to close out my position!

First Goalscorer - Bolton v Chelsea - William Gallas - 33/1 - 1pt

William Gallas has scored 4 goals this season and is a more than fair price at the genrally availible 33-1 for 1st goal scorere ... I'm have 1pt win.

4pts - 28-1 - William Hill - "Rest of The World" Winner of Snooker World Championship

O'Sullivan is a weak favourite for this tournament. The most solid bet is John Higgins who has clearly the strongest form this season. However, he has a tough draw with O'Sullivan and Williams in his quarter (in the ).

The of the draw is weaker. Murphy has a easy draw, but returning first time champions have a poor record. Ebdon has a strong World Championship form, but his recent form is weak. The other quarter has 3 potential champions in Doherty, Hawkins and Stevens. I'm most keen on Doherty as he has both current form and World Championship form. The latter is usually required, the former is a benefit.

I think William Hill have made a mistake on their price for 'Rest of the World' Champion. The term 'British Isles' has several meanings. William Hill have confirmed with me that their interpretation of Btitish Isles does NOT include Republic of Ireland. Therefore, when backing 'Rest of the World' you DO get Republic of Island players.

I will therefore have running for me (@28-1)

Doherty
Robertson
Wattana
Fu

(and any others I've missed!).

Verizon Classic - Pat Perez - 80-1 - Ladbrokes - 1pt E/W

Although most of the favoured golfers in this event has reasonable chances (Cink, Olazabal and Davis Love), I'm siding with Pat Perez. He recent performance at the TPC was impressive and last year he made a solid appearance in this event.

Non particpants from the Masters haave a poor record .... the only downside.

Update : Bet365 incorretly stated to me on Thusrday evening that I would get refunded. However, within their rules, as Pat Perez had started the tournament), this bet should have been setteld as a loser. For this Blog, I'm going to mark it as a loser (as if I had no refund).

However, I woud like to give a note of thanks to Bet365 for honouring their mistake. I have a feeling that I may have an issue with William Hill coming up.......

Man Utd v Arsenal - Senderos first/last goalscorer - 66/1 Bluesq.com

Senderos has scored 2 goals from 16 league appearances and as such is overpriced at 66-1 for first/last goalscorer. I'm having 0.5 pts on each.

Grand National - Haut De Gamme 28-1 - 1pts win

I've already placed 4pts at 13-2 on a JP McManus winner 2 months ago. I'm adding that today with 1pt win on Haut De Gamme.

I think there are problay 5-6 potentails winners, with Haut de GAmme the longest price. I;m steering clear of anything > 28-1.

Basle Cente backs to cause havoc. 0.5 pts first goalscorer Majstorovic, Smijanic

Majstorovic and Smijanic have both execlllent goals/games ratios for centrebacks. For this reason, i;m having 0.5 pts on each of them for 1st goalscorer.

0.5 pts Majstorovic 50-1 Ladbrokes
0.5 pts Smijanic 66-1 Bet365

US Masters Portfolio

My Masters bets are the following

Mickleson - 3pts win 9-1 betsson.com (are they the new sportsinteraction.com?)
Goosen - 3pts win 12-1 willhill.com
Howell - 1/2 pt win 66-1 sportsinteraction.com (they they the old betsson.com?)
Olazabel - 1/3 pt win 80-1 betsson.com
Weir - 1/3 pt win 80-1 betsson.com

Approx 7 pts staked in total.... any winner returns wins 28pts i.e. I have an approx 4-1 chance on these 5 runners. I may do some trading during the Masters as well.....

McManus 25-1 E/W 1pts Will Hill.

McManus has scored 5 goals since 1st Jan 06. I've placed 1pt E/W at WillHill @ 25/1 - they have favourable E/W terms of 1/2 1,2,3.

Cris - 50/1 Bluesq.com - 1pt First/Last Goalscorer

My namesake Lyon Central Defender Cris has sscored 2 goals this season. Milan are weak from set pieces, so he is a more than fair price at 50/1 with BlueSq.

I'm having 1pt on first and last goal scorer.

Position after 14 weeks:

Position after 14 weeks:

Points staked on settled bets = 238
Points returned on settled bets= 331
Profit on settled bets = 39 %

Points staked on unsettled bets = 52.5

3 Months in, and things are going to plan....I'm trying to aim for a 40% proft - not too far off!

I missed 2 big price winners in the past 2 weeks (that I should have had):

- Blythe Night (william Hill Lincoln, 33-1) - tipped to me by a shrewd horse racing judge... howveer, I already had placed 2 bets on teh race so decided against having a 3rd
- Fabregas - 25-1 first goalscorer ((Arsenal v Juventus)... had been noting his recent goals, and excellent play, especially Europe.

Antepost Horse racingbets are looking good, for the National and the Order of Merit

Baseball - World Series - St. Louis Cardinals. - 2pts Win SportingOdds.com

St. Louis have a reasonably good chance of winning the World Series this year - I;d make them an approx. 8-1 chance.

Sporting Odds are going a standout price of 10-1... if St. Louis beat Philadelphia tomorrow night, I expect them to be approx. half this price.

Boat Race - Oxford or Cambridge to Sink - 33-1 1pt SportingOdds

In the past 60 yeasr there have been 2 events where a boat has sunk (3 sinkings, the latest in 1978). Therefore this price would be right for an average year

However, with forecast rough weather, I am sure this should be an approx. 12-1 chance... Sporting Odds are taking a serious risk by quoting 33-1. *Glances up at weather*

Masters - 80-1 Olazabel - Betsson.com 1/3 point win.

I managed to find a 'rick' at Betsson... they were going 80-1 on Olazabel for the Masters next week, when he was generally 33-1.

However, Betsson have generously allowed me 1/3 of a point (£8) before cutting the price to 28-1. I only tried to put 4pts win on :) ....

I'm sure I will have further bets, but this bet is a start (even if it is only for 'buttons').

First Goal Scorer - Andy Robinson LVD Vans Trophy Final - 1pt win 10 - 1 - Stan James

The 2 best fisrt goalscorer bets on the LDV vans trophy both paly for Swansea and are:

- Lee Trundle (5-1, 20 goals in 29 appearances)
- Andy Robinson (10-1, 11 goals in 23 appearances)

Both are value bets, but I've a slight preference for Andy Robinson due to his strong peformance in Cup Matches.

Ralf Schumacher 0.5pts 125-1 E/W Sporting Odds.

Ralf Schumacher has a shorter than 25-1 chance of making the podium.... it is probably an approx. 10-1 chance. By backing him E/W @ 125-1, my reasoning is that you are getting 12.51-1 on the podium and a free win bet!

Ralf will need multiple withdrawls, but this is possible with potenbtial crashes at the first corner.

Apologies for the late posting of this bet.... for this who want proof of my bet I'llpost it below!

Arsenal v Aston Villa - Fabregas, Eboue First/Last Goal Scorer

Arsenal are rightly strong favourites against a weak Aston Villa side. I'm backing the following for both first/last goalscorer:

Fabregas - has looked dangerous recently and scored in midweek in the Chamions League - 1pt First and Last Goalscorer @ 18-1 (Bet365)

Eboue - Has scored once thsi season and relishes coming forward... has a fearsome shot - 0.5 pt First and Last Goalscorer @ 40-1 (Corals)

Ward - First/Last Goalscorer - Watford v Crystal Palace - 0.5 First/Last - 40-1

Crystal Palace Defender Darren Ward has scored 5 golas this season (4 first) and is good value at 40/1 with Stan James for First/Last Goalscorer.... I am having 0.5 pts on each.

Rollins (50-1) & Ridings (80-1) for Bellsouth glory.

I fancy Rollins and Ridings to play signficant parts in the Bellsouth Classic. Both have the gamnes to suit Bellsouth. This is a course for long hitters.

Ridings is 4th on driving stats and, not surpsingly, a liking for this course (6th, 14th on previosu starts). Course form is why I've picked him over newcomers Bubba Watson and JB Holmes (who I wouln't put anyone off backing)

Rollins has strong recent form this year (in the Buick and Nissan) and reasonable driving length - ignore is 2 latest attempts as he was out of form. In 2002/2003 he had top 6 finishes.

I've had 1pt E/W on Ridings @ 80-1 at Paddy Power (1/4 1-6) and 1pt E/W @ 50/1 at sportsinteraction. (1/4 1-4).

India v England - MoM - Singh - 2pts 16/1 Bet365

India are more lilely to win the 2nd ODIOo, so it pays to side with an Indian player for MoM

Singh was MoM in the 1st ODI and there is no reason to think why he doesn't have an equally good chance in the 2nd ODI. He has the ability to rip through a batting side and should be closer to half this price.

I'm having 2pts win at Bet365 @ 16-1.

Sam Hornish - Indy Racing League - 9/2 - 10pts

Sam Hornish is the Michael Schumacher of the Indy Racing League (or is it the other way around?). A supremely naturally taleneted individual, the improved equipment he will have this year means he should be clear favourite.

I expect him to win tonight (1st race of the season) and shorten to approx 2-1.

I've had 10pts (Max Bet) at 9-2 on Sam Hornish at Stan James. Bet365 are (apparently) opening this market after the 1st race tomorrow.

McManus (Celtic) 1pt E/W First Goalscorer (Will.Hill) 20-1

McManus has scored 5 goals since 1st Jan 06, including 2 in the last 2 games. Celtic are heavy favourites and should score 3 goals against a weak Livingston side.

I've placed 1pt E/W at WillHill @ 20/1 - they have favourable E/W terms of 1/2 1,2,3.

William Hill Lincoln, 2 against the field.

An always competitive race has made even more tricky because of uncertainty the draw. For that reason, I'm siding with the following two outsiders from different parts of the track:

1pt E/W Sew n So Character - 33/1 - Ladbrokes
1pt Win Bendedict - 28/1 Corals - (this would have been 1pt E/W if Coral had taken a bet greater than £25 on there guranteed prices!).

Score with Premiership Defenders.

I've placed the following goalscorer bets today on the Premiership at Will Hill who have favourable E/W terms:

Terry (Chelsea) - 16-1 1pt win, 0.5 pts Place - Scored in midweek.
Hyppia (Liverpool) - 33-1 0.5 E/W - scored last weekend
De Zeeuw (Wigan) - 33-1 0.5 E/W - looks like scoring very soon...

I've also placed a 0/5 E/W treble on the above.

A wekeaned (through illness) Man City side will be no match for Chelsea.

Everton's away form isn't great - they have been lucky on several occasion. The retun of Sissoko makes Liverpool's already strong midfiled even stronger.

Wigan v West Ham will be a close game.

Post Rd 1: TPC - Joe Durant - 100/1 1pt E/W Blue Sq.

After 1 Round, Joe Durant is -3, 4 off the lead. Although he has not got a great record this year, he was placed at Sawgrass last year. The reason for this is is execllent driving acuracy (he is currently 4th on the US tour for this). This is the key atttibute at Sawgrass, so I thing it is a reasonable possibility he can sneak into a top 4 place.

The only worry is a late tee time on Friday but hey, you can't have everything at 100-1!

For the more adventurous of you, he is currently trading at 200-1 on Betfair... I'll have another point on this, if it is matched overnight.

Snooker - China Open - Hawkins - 40/1 2pts E/W

The China Open has a very lopsided draw. For this reason, it makes sense to back a player in the top half of the draw.

Ding Jun Hui is very short at 6-1. He won this last year at 66-1, and although he has a fine record in the Far East, 6- 1 is no value.

There are few other player of merit in the top half. However, I think Barry Hawkins is great value at a standout 40/1 at StanJames. He is an up an coming player who is just coming onto the bookies radar, having made the semi-finals of teh Welsh Open.

He has a tough 1st round opponent against Stephen Hendry. However he has won the last 2 encounters with Hendry, so I have high hopes of him getting through the 1st round. He is then likley to meet Ding Jun Hui in the semi-finals, having beaten the winner of Stevens/Williams enroute.

I think he has a great chance against Ding Jun Hui, haven beaten him recently in the World Chmaioonship qualifier.

I'm having 2pts E/W on Barry Hawkins @ 40/1

Football Treble... oppose weakend teams.

The following teams are playing against weakend teams:

Blackburn (v Middlesboro)
(West Ham) v Portsmouth
(Man City) v Wigan

I'v placed a 1pt Treble on Blackurn (4/5), Portsmouth (4/1) and Wigan (11/4) at Ladbrokes.... only available on shop coupons.

3.15 Lingfield - Compton Bolter 2pt win - 25-1

Compton Bolter is in as good as form as ever. He likes Lingfield has come in the top 5 in the last 3 runinngs of this race. He was beaten 2 3/4 lengths last time out (in what I belive will be the key pointer for this race), but he is weighted to reverse places.

I think that he should be a single figure price (well 10/1 at most!).

I've had 2pt win at 25-1 at Bluesq.com (which has now gone), but there is still 20-1 availible at Corals.

Eveton v Aston Villa - 1st Goal Scorer - Luke Moore - 2pts win

Bet365 are going a standout 10-1 on Luke Moore (Aston Villa) to score the 1st goal. This is
a more than fair price, he has scored 8 goals in 13 league appearances this season. Im having 2pts.

Position after 12 weeks

Position after 12 weeks:
Points staked on settled bets = 199
Points returned on settled bets= 284
Profit on settled bets = 42.7 %

Points staked on unsettled bets = 39.5

3 Months in, and things are going to plan....I'm trying to aim for a 40% proft.

Mughas - 1pt win 20-1 - 4.00 Coral Cup

Mughas ran well in the race 2 years ago and I'm a great believer in backing horses with prior Cheltenham form for the festival. 20-1 looks more than fair.

1pt Win - Jessic Harrington - Leading Cheltenham Trainer - 100-1 1pt win.

Jessica Harrington may win the leading trainer trophy with 2 winners (Mac's Joy, Moscow Flyer) as the prize money will be almost certainly beat anyone else with 2 winners. 100-1 (Betfair) is probably to large a price.... I've had 1pt win on this.

2pts e.w. Luca Toni to win the World Cup Golden Boot at 33/1 (Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2,3,4).

Italy are likely to progress quite far in the World Cup (even maybe win it1). Toni is the top scorer in Serie A and has netted five in five for Italy. Although Italy have several potential strikers (e.g Vieri), but I believe his current form means he is likely to start.

I've had 2pts E/W @ 33/1... roll-on the World Cup.

Italy v Wales - No Try Scorer - 50/1 - 1pt

Italy's strong defence could be enough to hold off a weak Welsh team. The 50-1 generally availible is quite generous... I'd make it a 16-1 chance at most.

Liuzzi, Speed to star in Bahrain - 3 Figure prices for Pole (E/W) and Podium

Liuzzi and Speed in the Toro Rosso could spring a suprise in B ahrain. The V10 engines have not looked especially quick in testing over the winter, but they could be 'sand-bagging'. There is a chance (small!) that these could be the quickest cars on the track...

.... and if that happens, they will never get of the back row again with the penalties they will incurr.

I've spread 2 pts (in total) on these 2 guys across the pole/podium markets.

Kumble 12/1, 2pts - 2nd Test India v England - Man of the Match

Kumble has an excellent strike rate in home tests and is surely to big at 12-1 (Ladbrokes) for Man of the Match.

Jenson Button - BBC Sports Personality 33-1 4pts win

Jenson Button has a much greater chance than 33-1 to win Sports Personality of the year. A strong F1 Championship performance would put make him in with a leading chance. This bet will have to wait until Dec 06.

Grand Prix Championship - Jenson Button - 4pts win 14/1 - sportsinteraction.com

Jenson Button has a live chance of winning the F1 drivers championship. He is a consistent performer and the Honda has been performing extremeluy well in out of season testing.

The pre-season 25/1 has long gone (he is as short as 7/1 in places!)..... take advantage of the 14/1 on offer at US bookmakers sportsinteraction.

Position afer 10 weeks.

Position after 10 weeks:
Points staked on settled bets = 165
Points returned on settled bets= 162
Profit on settled bets = -2%

No big winners missed, but *nearly* backed Nadal (Dubai Open, 7-1) and Crash (Oscars Best Picture, 5-1)

Points staked on unsettled bets = 54.5

Cheltenham is looking more and more favourable - I hope that I will be signficantly up post Cheltenham in 2 weeks time... I'm hoping (!) for an approx 50 points profit at Cheltenham!

Triumph Hurdle - 2pts E/W Fair Along 25-1 Bet365 (NRNB)

The market leaders (first 4 to 5 in the betting) all have strong claims. However, at a bigger price, I'm siding with Fair Along. If you ignore his last run on soft ground at the notoriously quirky Chepstow, he has strong Cheletenham form (related to the other market leaders).

My only concern is his front-running style which may not be ideal for this race.

There is no my in my opinion he should be 25-1 NRNB... I'd make him closer to a 10-1 chance. I'm having 2pts E/W.

Queen Mother Champion Chase - Fundamentalist 25-1, Dempsey 25-1

Before I started this blog, I had 2pts E/W on Ashley Brook @16-1. He is now 8-1 :). However. I think there is still value. There are doubts about a signficant no of the leading contenders. In additions, some bookies are going Non Runner No Bet (NRNB) .

The 2 at bigger prices that I like are Fundamentalist and Dempsey.

A lot has to be taken on trust with Fundamentalist. However, there have been valid excuses for his recent come backrun(s). If he returns to form (and it is a big if), 33-1 wil look a big price.

Dempsey has more solid form and 33-1 could look very big in 1 1/2 weeks time.

Therefore I'm having 1pt E/W on both horses @ 33-1 at Bet365.

Royal and Sun Alliance Novice Hurdle - Blazing Bailey - 2pts E/W 33-1

Denman is rightly favourite for this race. However, his very strength means there is a doubt as to the participation of 2nd fav. Black Jack Ketchum.

At a much bigger price, I like Blazing Bailey. The race last weekend against Kasbah Bliss (headed for the Triumph Hurdle) could be key. Blazing Bailey will seek to avoid Kasbah Bliss and therfore is likely to take part in the R & SA Novice Hurdle. NRNB provides a protection if the horses swap destinations.

I've therefore having 2pts E/W @ Bet365 on Blazing Bailey.

N.B 3 weeks ago I'd looked at Zaiyad @ 33-1. However, before NRNB became availible (there were doubts over whcih race it would go for) it was tipped in previews! I've missed the value, it is now 10/1 :(

Update: It looks like Blazing Bailey will take on Kasbah Bliss in the Triumph Hurdle, so I will just get my stake back. .. now to find another horse for the R & SA hurdle.

Wakefield v Huddersfield - 1st Tryscorer - Torrens, 20-1 Bedirect

Betdirect are going a standout 20-1 on Torrens for 1st tryscorer. Having scored 3 tries in hs first 3 games, other bookies are closer to the mark at approx 12-1.

Betdirect also return your stake if either Semi Tadulala or Robbie Paul score the last try.

Vodafone Cup - Newbury - Redemption (16-1), Full House (25-1)

I think this is an open handicap, and I agree with Tom Segal's (Pricewise, Racing Post) analysis. Both Redemption and Full House have conditions right for them today, so at relatively big prices they are worth chancing.

Redemption 2 pts Win @ 16-1 (Ladbrokes)
Full House 1 pt E/W @ 25-1 (Blue Square)

Randhawa (16-1), Furyk (20-1), E/W double.

The 2 players I think are reasonable prices this week in the golf are

Randhawa - Indonesian Open - 16-1
Furyk - Doral Chmaionship - 20-1

I've placed an E/W double.... I guess two singles might be less risky!