Aus v Eng 5th Test - Man of the Match - Glen McGrath (7/1) 4pts (cover Shane Warne (5/1) 1pt)

The Sydney Cricket Ground (SCG) is the location for the 5th test in the Ashes. Given England's diamla record, I expect that an Australian player (most likely a bowler) will win MoM.

This is Glen McGrath and Shane Warne's last test and both have a reasonable record at the ground (which is 'spinner friendly'). I expect one of these 2 individuals to win the MoM. As SCG is Glen McGrath's home venue (and Shane Warne won the last MoM on his home ground), preference is for Glen McGrath, with a cover on Shane Warne.

My staking plan is as follows

4pts Glen McGrath - 7/1
1pt Shane Warne - 5/1

These prices are availible at Ladbrokes. Just missed the 10/1 at Blue Squeare, the other bookmaker who has opened on this market.... other bookies are running scared.

In Which Month Will Tony Blair Step Down From His Duties As Prime Minister?

William Hill have priced up 'In Which Month Will Tony Blair Step Down From His Duties As Prime Minister? '. I believe this market has been seriously mis-priced.

I think the most lilkely scenario is for Blair to stepdown from leadership of the Labour Party in May 2007, after the local elections and after 10 years in charge. He could at this point also step down as Prime Minister. The most likely scenario for this (simultaneous) resignation to happen is if their was a 'coronation' (of Brown).

However, a left wing MP has already indicated he will stand against Brown, and there is a possibility Reid will as well, triggering a leadership contest. Whilst a leadership contest takes place, I believe Blair will retain his position as Prime Minister. With an expected 8 weeks for the leadership contest, my thinking is that Blair will cease his duties as Prime Minister in July 07. This is confirmed by the (well connected) political correspondent of 'The Sun'.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2006410396,00.html

A strict reading of the Labour Leadership rules would be that a resignation would be followed by an appointment at the Labour party conference in Sept. 07.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/5177180.stm

The prices they have are as follows (Month, Price) : May 1.57 April 4.00 March 8.00 June 15.00 February 17.00 July 26.00 September 34.00 October 34.00 January 34.00 August 51.00 Any Other 51.00

Therefore my staking plan is as follows:

6 pts - July - 25/1
1 pt - August - 50/1
1 pt - September -33/1

N.B (i) This market is very different from the Betfair market which is 'When will Tony Blair officially cease to be leader of the Labour Party?'
N.B (ii) The book closes at 5:30 p.m. today. (Although it may be re-opened)

Leonardo di Caprio (The Departed) - Golden Globe (20/1), Oscars (11/1)

The Golden Globe best actor nominations have been announced and they are as follows:

Forest Whitaker ( The Last King of Scotland )
Peter O`Toole ( Venus )
Will Smith ( The Pursuit of Happyness )
Leonardo Di Caprio ( The Departed )
Leonardo Di Caprio ( Blood Diamond )

Although being nominated for two films may be seen as a handicap, I stil think Leonardo Di Caprio is in with a chance against the (long odds on) favourite Forest Whittaker. Forest Whittaker has the critics backing at present, but the (low number) of Golden Globes judges have a record of choosing major stars for their award.

I'm having 1pt @ 20/1 (Victor Chandler).

If he wins this award, he will be much shorter for the forthcoming Oscars (for which the Golden Globes are a strong predictor), so consequently I'm also backing him at 12/1 for the Best Actor Oscar (Bet365/Sportsinteraction .... do they have the same odds compilers?)

Order of Merit - 2pts E/W - Voy Por Ustedes - 20/1 - Stan James

Kauto Star is justifiably a short priced favourite for the OoM. However, given his short price (4/9), there is E/W value to be had elsewhere. My preference is for Voy Por Ustedes, the favourite for the Quenn Mother.

Enroute to the Queen Mother, he is likely to take in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury which should be relatively straightforward (unless Kauto Star switches to this race from the Aon Chase).

To win the OoM, Voy Por Ustedes will need Kauto Star to not complete for the rest of the year (not an impossibility given Kauto Star's jumping). However, to get placed in the OoM Voy Por Ustedes will just need to put in some solid performances. The 2m divison looks realtively week this year - his competitors in the OoM are mainly hurdelers (which seems a much more competitive divison).

King George VI Preview

Kauto Star is too short at 4/7 for this event. His jumping is not perfect, and will be fully tested around Kempton. There is also a doubt as to the nature of his Haydock and Sandsown performences - are they really the special performances that most believe?

Racing Demon also has jumping issues. Monet's Garden is much the best bet of the favoured horse, however he will need to improve a little to take this race and his reluctantly passed oer at 4-1.

Instead my two bets are as follows:

Monkehostin - 4pts win, 20-1 (Betfair). I think he has a reasonable chance of reversing form with Racing Demon on their last running - last year Monkerhostin reserved his best for Kempton (i the King George) when he was narrowly beaten by Kicking King.

Ollie Magern, - 1pt win, 40-1 (Betfair) - a front running horse (a charactersitic that suits Kempton), need to return to form to take a part, but it wouldn't be the greatest suprise ever if he took a major part in this race.

2006 Review - 49.79 % Profit

The headline figure of 49.79 % tells the story of my first year. I was aiming for 40%, so I am more than happy with this figure. (This includes all bets I have placed - if you only select all post placed on this blog before the event, this figure drops to 37.69 %). The reason for the discrepancy is that I sometimes see 'last minute' bets e.g Rail Link on the PMU in the Arc.

Whichever figure we use, I am happy with my performance. I'd be interested if anyone knows of any blog that can beat either these figures (or get close to them!) ... I want to read it! I would any wish those in the print/new media listed % profits (or losses) it would make it so much easier to know who to read! (i.e. whose judgement to trust)

Previously, I've been asked to post my results - I've an .xls with these, filtered by 'settled bets' and ordered by sport. Comments much appreciated! If you'd like a copy, email me at chris.trinder@gmail.com for a copy (unless someone can tell me how to place an attachment on a blog. other than an image!)

Finally, thanks to thebetfairtrader.blogspot.com for giving me an metion on his blog - it made my day!

http://thebetfairtrader.blogspot.com/2006/11/betfair-betting-blogs.html

'More of a tipping blog than a Betfair trading one, but one I like to read anyway, is Kicking Bets written by a guy called Chris. Been going for a nearly a year. Can't find the latest results but I think he's showing a 40 something or other per cent ROI. Perhaps not the biggest from a trading perspective but I think you'll be hard pressed to find an out and out tipster with better results'.

Aus v Eng 4th Test - Man of the Match - Shane Warne - 4pts @ 6-1 (William Hill)

Australia are strong favoutrites to win this match, meaning an Australina player is likely to win Man of the Match. The ground is very much a 'home ground' for Shan Warene and he has a good bowling record here.

In addition, with Shane Warne announcing his imminent retirement frm test cricket, there will also be sentimental reasons to giuve him the award.

'Level Out' on Matt Dawson for SCD - lock in minimum 30 pts profit.

I'm going to lay Mark Ramprakash to take an (approximately) neutral position and lock in a (minimum) 30 pts. profit. Having backed Mark at 16-1, I would read the outocme this Saturday as a 'toss of the coin' job. Mark and Matt have been recently consistently 1 and 2 in the public vote (the only vote that will count this week) and the only time we have been certain of the order they finished in the public vote, it was Matt above Mark.Mark has not been consistent the best with his dancing, so he may not get the judges highest ratings (not that this will have a huge impact). Zoe Ball (last series) and Emma Bunton (this series) has showed the consistency of pro/anti voting for individulas, irrespective of their performance.I appreciate the polls have Mark a clear leader, I think they may be wrong.

Update on Presidential Betting 2008 - New Bets (Guiliani 16-1, Gore 33-1)

As you can see from the above poll, the polling figures have changed a little since my last review one month ago. The key moves are as follows:

Republican Candidate - It looks increasingly certain that Rice will not stand for the Republican candicacy. Guiliani has moved from 28% to 29%, McCain drops from 26% to 24% and Gingrich moves up from 7% to 13%.

I think Guiliani is great value at 16/1 for the Presidency, and I've had a further 6pts at 16-1 at William Hill.

Democrat Candidate - Clinton has strengthed her position, her support moving from 31% to 37%. Obama has dropped back from 19% to 15% and Gore has moved from 9% to 15%, now tying with Obama.

I've looked closely at Gore's position on the Presidency and he does not rule this out (although he isn't 'planning to stand', and easy get out). He has kept his profile very high with his enviromental campaigning and has the funds to mount a successful Candidature / Presidential campaigns. Clinton is clearly the most likely to be the Democratic Candidate, but 33-1 on Gore for President in 2008 is a great bet in my opinion.

I am having 6pts win at 33/1 on Gore for the Presidency (William Hill).

If Clinton does take the Democratic nomination, I think that either Guiliani (or McCain) willl be a very strong challenger. Guiliani's positions on social matters will win over potential Democratic voters (while not dropping to many Republican vites as they have nowhere to go). In contrast, it is unlikley that Clinton will take many Republican votes due to the fact she so strongly polarises opinion.

Complete Record of US bets.

10 pts Guiliani Next US President 16-1 (still availible, Willian Hill)
6 pts Gore Next US President 33-1 (still availible, William Hill)
5 pts Obama Democratic Nominee 8-1 (top price now 5-1, Ladbrokes)
4pts Obama Next US President 16-1 (top price now 9-1, William Hill)

2007 Sports Personality of the Year Preview - Lewis Hamilton - 4pts Win - 25-1

Most of my success this year has been in long term/antepost markets (especially in 'specialist' markets). With my recent win in the SPOTY 2006, I thought I'd take a look at SPOTY 2007.

Preview of the 2007 SPOTY.

Looking at past trends, the most likely winners of this event are as follows (in order of significance):

- Athletic Champions out Olynpics/World Championships
- England Football peformance (e.g World Cup/Qualifying)
- Winner/Runner Up in F1 World Chamionship
- Tennis Grand Slam Winner/Runner Up

There are other possibilities if:
1. The individual dominates their sport e.g. Nick Faldo (1989), Steve Davis (1988)
2. The individual plays a key part of a team performance (Wilkinson (2003) - Rugby World Cup, Flintoff (2005), Botham (1981), both Ashes).
3. Special reasons (Philips (2006)) - Royalty

Lets consider these trends in turn for 2007

Athletic Champions (e.g at 2007 World Chamionships in Osaka)
Winning the event is a must. (Winning) success has been limited in major chamionships recently. Difficult to call at this point, probably best to wait until the events has happened (or just before). Would need to be a realtively high profile event. The most obvious candidate in Paula Radcliffe. N.B. For Ante Post betting 9 months ahead, injuries are always a problem.

England Football peformance (e.g World Cup/Qualifying)
Unlikely to provide winner in 2007 - this rules out a signficant no. of the field! Footballers have only a likely chance in World Cup/European Championship years.

Winner/Runner Up in F1 World Chamionship
The only likley possibilities are Jenson Button and Lewis Hamilton.

Tennis Grand Slam Winner/Runner Up
Andrew Murray is the most likely although there is a small chance of Tim Henman making an impact at Wimbledon.

Outside of these key areas, there are

- Golf - Major winners (my be enough in a weak year, especially given the length of time when a British player last won a Major). Would probably be easier to back this individual has they came into contention in the last few holes (or after they have won the tournament)
- Cricket - Ashes - if we win/retain the Ashes (unlikely), there could be a heroic performance, especially by Monty Panesar who the public have taken a liking to.
- Boxing - Boxers have had a previously good record, but that has fallen off recently - Audley Harrison is a possibility of he wins the Heavy Weight Championship at end 2007.
- Rugby - World Cup 2007 - the weak England Performance will likely count against a winner in this category. In addition, you would need pick a single indiviudal from the team, always tricky.

Summary

At this point, I woudl suggest that the only clear candidates are as follows:

Andrew Murray (8-1)
Paula Radcliffe (16-1)
Jenson Button (16-1)
Lewis Hamilton (25-1)

As per a previous post, I predict that Lewis Hamilton will do well in F1 this year - he is already testing impressively for McClaren, one of the three leading F1 teams. The upside is the fact he does not need to win F1, a 2nd place would probably be enough. The only downside is the possibility of split F1 votes with Jenson Button - unlikely, unless Jenson Button is also challenging for the championship.

I've therefore had 4pts win on Lewis Hamilton at 25-1.

I'll be keeping a careful watch on:
- Any Bristish golfer winning a Major (or looking likely to)
- England progress in the Rugby World Cup 2007 (especilly if an indiviual is is playing a 'starring role)
- Grand Slam progress of Murray/Henman

Most importantly, any Gold medals in high profile events at the World Athletic Chamionships - this is probably the key event. I will add any of this classification of World Athletic Championship winners to my 'portfolio'.

The key to getting value on this market (as all markets) is to react quickly if a player in one of the above key categories wins (or looks likely to win). Typically the SPOTY market first lags a little, then overreacts. The market 'overshoot' can be seen by the number of SPOTY 2006 runners who traded at (very) short prices 1 day after they had won their event.

Lay Alan Pardew - 4pts - Next West Ham Manager

One of my least inspired bets... I've watched many 'Next Manager' Markets and there are freuently several likely cnadidates that trade at approx 2.0 - 3.0. Not worked in this case though!

N.B. This post is after the event, just trying to kep this log an accurate reflection of my betting, so I have an accurate record.

Full analysis of my betting to follow over Christmas!

4pts win Arsenal to beat Chelsea 6-1 (Betfair)

Asrenal are overpriced at 6-1 top beat Chelsea. Chelsea have a great record at home and Arsenal are missing Henry, Gallas and Toure, but should still not be 6-1. Much will depend on whether Chelsea set out to attack Arsenal - if this happens, Asrenal have the ability to hit Chelsea on the counter attack.

Arsenal's weak away form this year has been against physical temas such as Bolton - if Chelsea adopt this approach, they are likely to have more success.

3.10 - Arcalis - Cheltenham - 1pt win 33-1

With a small field, and soft ground, a surprise could happen in this race. I think that Detroit City is overrated, so there is value in the other runners. The 5-2 on Hardy Eustace has disapperaed, so I'm backing Arcalis at 33-1. He showed signs of come back to form in his last race, and, on this form, he is not many lbs behind Hardy Eustace and Detroit City.

2.40 - Tikram - 2pts win - Cheltenham (22-1, Betfair)

After an excellent 2nd to Dempsey in Jan 06, Tikram's form tailed off last year. Tikram has changed trainers over the summer to Alan King and I belive this in-form trainer can revitalise him. Tikram won't want the ground too soft, but can go well off a relatively low handicap mark (previoulsy won off this mark) . He has solid Cheltenham form (won the Mildmay of Flete in 2004 and 2nd in this race the same year), always expecially important for Cheltenham. The trip (2m 5f)will also hold no worries and has won fisrt time out in the past

A big danger is Reveillez (in terms of 'trends' he has all the 'tickes' in the boxes, but I am going to stick to one bet, Tikram).

2pts E/W - 25-1 - Lewis Hamilton - 2007 F1 Championship

Lewis Hamilton has the chance to be one of the oustanding drivers of this generation. He succefully won the GP2 championship last yesr, a clear indication of his ability. He partners F1 Champion Alonso at the Mclaren this year. Hamilton is 25-1 and Alonso 2-1, too bigger price discrepancy in my opinion.

Full details on Hamilton can be seen on Wikipedia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis_Hamilton

I've now 2 drivers against the field (Lewis Hamilton, 25-1 and Kouvalainen, 33-1).

2pts Win - Steve Davis Premier League 20-1

Ronnie O'Sullivan is a worthy favourite for this, but at a best priced 1.4 (Betfair) he makes no appeal. Instead, I've sided with Steve Davis to win the tournament. He is in great form at present and, with the added advantage of playing on Behalf of Paul Hunter, will be motivated. He plays Ronnie O'Sullivan in the Semi Final.... however, Ronnie O'Sullian could potentially turn up in the wrong frame (sorry!) of mind. The added bonus is that I think that Jimmy White has a chance in the other semifinal (against Dott).

Man Utd. v Everton - Everton to win 14/1 (Betfair) - 2pts

I don't nortmally back in football matches, but on a couple of occasions recenetly I've missed some real value bets (typically big 'drifters' pre-match on Betfair).

I believe this is the same situation tonight in the Man Utd v Everton game. Man Utd. are playing a weakend team. Of course, Everton are also missing some key plaayers but at 14/1 they have to be chanced (9/1 at conventional bookmakers).

2.35 Becher Chase - Dunbrody Millar - 2pts win - 18-1

I have the utmost respect for Clan Royal, but I think at 18-1 Dunbrody Millar is a great price. His 4th in the Topham last year (over a too short trip) shows his liking for these (special) National fences. He is only 4lbs higher than when winning the Agfa Diamond Chase, and his trainer Peter Bowen is currently in form. Dunbroody Millar's form talied off at the back end of last year, but he will and will benefit from a recent run.

NFL - Dallas v Indianapolis - 1pt 40-1 Romo First Touchdown.

Indianapolis are susceptible to touchdowns form Quarterbacks (have conceded 3 this year). Although he is yet to score a touchdown this year, Romo (Dallas QB) is probably overpriced at 40-1 to score the first TD. I'm having 1pt at 40-1 (Stan James).

N.B. The last 1st TD bet I had was on the Superbowl final... and I picked the wrong QB (the other scored first!)

Giuliani - Next President of USA - 2008 - 4pts 16-1 - William Hill

It is early days (just after Mid Terms), but the graphic above from www.pollingreport.com shows that each party as 2 main candidates. I've already backed Obama at 8/1 for Democratic Candisate and 16/1 for President. I'm adding to this 4pts at 16/1 (William Hill) on Giuliani - he is as short as 11/2 at vcbet.co.uk . He is not certainty to run, but at least he has submitted his Presidential nominee papers!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rudy_Giuliani

Where will Beckham be at the Start of Prem Season 2007 - 0.5 pts Retired

Beckham's contract at Real Madrid expires in Summer 2007.

Skybet have opened up the market 'Where will Beckham be at the Start of Prem. Season 2007 '

The President is keen to re-sign him but Beckham is not getting much football action from manger Capello at Real Madrid and has consequently stopped contract negotiations. Beckham may still stay at Real Madrid, but 7-4 is not a massive price - I'm not sure he will re-sign without guaranteed first team football (whcih he won't get). MLS in the US have lifted the salary cap for one 'star' player (for players such as Beckham) but 2-1 is not a big price either. He could come back to British football, but I think that is unlikely - I'm not sure he would want to play against his old club (which wouldn't rule at Rangers/Celtic, but they aren't quoted). You also need to specify a specific club, which is tricky.

Therefore, I believe the vaue is 33/1 on Beckham retiring. He is now in his early thirties and if he doesn't get a good offer, there is no need for him to continue (it is not as if he needs the money!) He is not being picked for England (and unlikley to be under McClaren), so that is not a factor. He may also suffer an injury, also terminating his career.

I'd make retiring a 10/1 chance.... if Skybet had allowed me I'd have had 2 pts - I've been restricted to 0.5 pts.

Britain's Greatest Living Icon - Stephen Fry - 20-1 - 0.5 pts

The BBC Culture show is running a poll for Britain's Greatest Living Icon. 2 bookies have opened books on this, Skybet and Paddy Power. There is is significant discrepencies between their prices. For me, the value bet is Stephen Fry at 20-1 - I'd make him a 4-1 chance. He has cross age/gender appeal and I believe will appeal to the viewers of the Culture show.

If Paddypower had allowed me, I'd have had 4pts win - as it is, I;m restricted to 0.5 pts. N.B. The other runner at a too big price is 6-1 on Paul McCartney at Sporting odds. However I'm restricting myself to one bet - it is possible that market could be manipulated by a campaign, most likely for a musician.

Full list of runners:

Sir David Attenborough
Michael Caine
Stephen Fry
Sir Paul McCartney
David Bowie
Vivienne Westwood
Alan Bennett
Morrissey
Kate Bush
Kate Moss

Macdonald Brothers - 1.5 pts win - XFactor - 66/1 (Betfair)

Something very strange is happening in X Factor... I believe that the Mcdonald brothers can go far, despite not being the most talented (although they are improving). The reasons for this are:

i) Block Scottish vote c.f past X Factors.
ii) British voters love an underdog - Simon's continual tirades against them is only encouraging people to vote for them

This may mean that they have an outside chance... and many trading opportunities.

P.S. Ray Feardon left SCD last night (16-1) , 2 weeks after I tipped him at 33-1. A poor dance and the race factor did for him...just got my timing a little out.

Update: I've had a further 2 points win at 33/1 (Ladbrokes). Now the voting is only down to the public.... this coudl be close.

Mexico GP - Dan Clark - 1pt Win 20-1

With AJ Allmendinger and Paul Tracey having exited Champ Cars, the way is clear for Dan Clark to make an impact. He will need luck to play a part, but at 20/1 he is a fair price to win tonight's Mexico GP.

Hennessy Gold Cup - Antepost - Star de Mohaison - 8/1 (Ladbrokes) - 4pts win

To win the Hennessy, you need to be a young, progressive horse who fully stays 3m+. Star de Mohaison fits this bill perfectly. Running (and winning) a (hurdles) prep race at Cheltenham is also a plus... the only worry is the 11st 8lb he will need to carry (due to his high official rating). However, if he is a Gold Cup horse in the making he should be able to carry this weight.

Owner Robert Odgen's Racing Manager seems keen to send him to Newbury. If he makes the day (which is likely), I can see him starting at approx. 7-2.

Saturday Racing.....

2.40 Chelt. 4pts Win Tumbling Dice @ 18-1 (Average Odds.... now availible at 20-1 on Betfair!)
3.45 Chelt. 1pts E/W Barrow Drive (40-1) (Betfair)

Barack Obama - US Democratic Candidate - 5pts - 8-1

Barack Obama has taken the US political scene by storm in the past 2 weeks (Time covers etc.). I think he will play well with the Democrats voters... he has a JFK feeling about him.

His main rivals are Hilary Clinton and Al Gore.

Although I've missed the fancy prices, 8-1 is more than fair - I think he should be closer to a 5-2 chance. If he stands (which I think is likely) I believe he will beat Hilary Clinton. I think Hilary Clinton is underpriced at 11/8. Although she is likely to stand, she has the strong negative that she voted for the Iraq war (Obama voted against it). This could turn out to be the key issue in the next Presidential election (not the economy, stupid!)

She also polarises voters in the way that Obama doesn't - in current polls, Obama has a slight lead.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama

Come on Iowa 2008!

Update: After the Mid Term elections, I've also added a furthe 4pts win on Barack Obama to be the next President at 16/1 at William Hill. After his commenst on the Larry King show, I am more than convinced than ever he will stand . There is still the hurdle of Hilary Clinton to overcome for the Democratic nomination and, if he gets this, the 'race factor' for the Presidency. However, 16-1 is too big.... I'd make him an 8-1 chance.

F1 Grand Prix Championship 2007 - Kovalainen - 33-1 2.5 pts E/W

Kovalainen has a great chance of at least getting placed in next years F1 Championship. I've found 33-1 at sportsintercaction.com (he is generally a 16-1 chance). Unfortunately, they have only allowed me to place 0.5 pts E/W :(

He was test driver for Renault last year (after coming (narrowly) 2nd to Nico Rosbery in the Gp2 F1 feeder series the previosu year).

He is driving a Renault car and should out drive Fisichella. Renault and Ferrai are currently the 2 leading Manufacturers so a place finish (at worst) looks likely.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heikki_Kovalainen

If anyone finds a bookie offering 33-1 who will take an additional bet, please let me know... I'm keeping my eye out as well. (Not all bookies have opened up on the 2007 F1 Championship yet).

Update: Bet365 have opened a book and priced Kovalainnen at 33/1 so I've added a further 2pts E/W (and updated the title)

Emma Bunton to be evicted from SCD - 0.5 pts, 100/1

Emma Bunton has apparently had disagreements with her dancing partner. This will hinder dancing practice (reducing the judges votes) and public votes (as was seen last week - the public don't vote for 'moaners'.)

If she finishes mid divison, a shock coudl be on the cards- she is available at 66/1 for eviction at the bookies.

Breeders Cup Bets.

I've now completd my study on this event. However, I will post my bets approx. 5 mins before each raced. The reason for thsi is I wamt to have the choice of:

Inductry SPs (not likley)
Befair Prices
American Tote Prices

I've selected 2-3 horses per race, I'll make my final slection(s) depending on the prices availible just before the off... I think I may have some horse that will go off at 3 figues prices!

5.30 1.25 pts Win - Satulagi - 33-1..... can do a 'Wilko', the more adventerous could do worse than back her in running... if she wins, she will come from behind on the long straight.

6.10 0.5 pts Win - Malt Magic - 80-1 - highly regarded by legendary trainer Bob Baffert, there are excuses for his run in the G2 Norfolk after a scintillating previous performance. Could be anything.... so 100-1 is a fair price.

6.55 No bet - I really hope Ouija Board wins, not I'm not confident - she'll need to be at her best.......Update : Oujia Board wins!

7.35 1pt Win - Attila's Storm - 33-1 - I believe that a high draw is a benefit in this race (Update : I'll ignore stats in future), therefore my 2 against the field are Siren Lure and Attila's Storm. Sligt prefernce is for Attila's storm as, although Siren Lure is more progressive, Attila's Storm is 5 times the price. He is a front runner who just might never be caught...

Oops.... I thought that it was coincidence that the first 2 dirt races were won by Draw 1... and then in the 3rd dirt race, the horse from Draw 1 wins again at 14-1! :(....... I'm going to keep a watching brief now until things are clearer.....

8.15 No bet - I think that Aragorn as a good chance, but is not a massive price at 4-1. Update Aragorn 2nd... back to the dirt.

8.55 No bet .... Update: Drawn 1 has flown in again (on the Dirt) at 16-1! Unbelievable... it s like Chester!

Carl Johanneson vs Femi Fehintola - 2pts Fehintola to win om pts - 12-1 (Ladbrokes)

Fehintola has won most of his fights recently on poitns (admitedly over shorter distances). Johnanneson is a definite favourite for the fight (and rightly so). However, most of his recent fights have been KOs in early rounds. If the fight progresses to later rounds, Fehintola has a decent chance of nicking this on points at (a more than fair) 12-1.

2pts Win Geordieland 16-1 (Centrebet) Melbourne Cup

Geordiealnd has had a smoooth prepartion for the Melbourne Cup (unlike most of the European runners). Regular readers of my blog will know I'm a real fan of Geordieland. He think he a great chance in this race....(not taking anything away from Yeats).

Barcelona v Chelsea - Time of First Goal 81+ minutes - 25-1 1pt

I expect Chelsae to play defensively in this match which means that goals may be hard to find. However, if the score is 0-0 after 80 minutes, Barcelona will throw men forward (and could be hit on the break).

The additional advantage of this bet is you gave probably 3-4 mins of extra time to collect.

Strictly Come Dancing - Next Elimination - Ray Fearon - 33/1 -1pt

There is a definite trend in Reality TV programs for non-white contestants to receive low public votes (lower than they should according to their performances). While you can speculate on the reasons for this, the patten is so pronounced it cannot be disputed.

With black contestants Mica Paris and DJ Spooney already being voted off, Ray Fearon must be at risk. He is an excellent dancer but, if he has an average day, he may finish 3rd/4th from bottom. As DJ Spooney found to his cost last week, this may not be good enough for him to survive once the public votes have been added.

3.25 - Wetherby - Charlie Hall Chase - Kingscliff - 2pts win 8/1

Kingscliff ran well to finish 2nd in this rac last year showing he has a liking for this course/distance. He is well suited by the soft ground and fits the profile of typical winners of this race (experienced, top class chasers with course form).

Counting against him is the fact that his form tailed off at the end lof last year and that conditions of the race means he gives weight away to most of his rivals. I'm too concerned about these neagtives as he normally goes well fresh (i.e. the tailoff in form has an explanation) and his big frame means that he will be able to shoulder the big weight better than most.

Reading v Arsenal 0.5 pts E/W - Gallas - Betdirect 40-1

Event Details
Premier League - Reading v Arsenal 2006-10-22 16:00:00

Market
First Goalscorer (Each Way 1/3 1-2-3-4)

Selection
William Gallas @ 40/1

No special insight, just a recognition that Gallas gets forward regularly, has scored alreday this season and Arsenal are odds-on favs. Bet Direct's favourable E/W terms make this a reasonable bet.. worth 0.5 pts E/W anyway!

F1 - Brazil Grand Prix - Alonso 8-1 (Betfair) - 5pts win

I think that Alonso is a geat price at 8-1 (as short as 7-2 at convetional bookmmakers).

Michael Schumacher (at 10th on the grid at best) has it all to do to win this race. The Ferrais are certainly fastest, but there are obviously mechanical issues so at 4-1, he is not a great price. Massa has a reasonable chance, but evens is too short..... he will have to make way for Michale Schumacher if there is any possibility of Schumacher winning the drivers championship.

There are plenty of conspiracy theories around with Raikkonen or Massa taking out Alonso. While neither will pull out of any 50/50 with Alonso, I don't think eitehr will delibeartely run Alonso off the road. (It would have been different if Michael Schumahcer was leading the championship from Alonso!).

Alonso will play it safe, however Renault will be trying to win the Constrcutors championship (currently 9 pts) and will want to maximise their points. In addition, Michelin runners are more competitive with Bridgestone runners come race time rather than on single laps.

Finally, what happens if rains arrives? The Bridgestone shod Ferraris will be nowhere.

Saturday Racing - Newbury

3.15 Racing Post Trophy Red Rock Canyon - 1pt E/W

This strikes me as a good each way bet @ 40/1.... I've great respect for Eagle Mountain and Regime, but with soft ground at Newbury surely it woudln't be a complete surprise is a Aiden O'Brien 2nd string got placed (or even won!).

2.05 Desert Dew - 11/1 - 2pts Win

A1GP - France to win Championship - 4-1 - 10 pts win

France were the runaway winners of last years A1GP championship. In the first 2 races this year (of a 12 race championship) they have had been unfortunate not to finish either race because of two mechanical failures.

In my judgement, they should be an approx. 2-1 chance. This is a perfect example of a markets over reacting to short term events.

Calzaghe v Bika - Preview

Calzaghe is one of the geatest British boxers at present, but strange things can happen in Boxing. Bika has come here to fight and should not the price his is....... if he is going to win, I suspect it will be on points. The most likley scenario for this to happen is if there is a re-occurence of Calzaghe's hand injury which would limit his ability to box.

A draw is another possibility, most likely through an early injury e.g clash of heads... the match is automatically a draw if this happens in the first 4 rounds. (which is what happended in Bika's last fight.)

Bika to win on points - 40-1 - 1 pt
Calzaghe v Bika - draw - 66-1 - 1pt

(Both at Betfair)

Saturday Racing.....

I'm having 1pt on a Scoop 6 perm..... as well as the following Pricewise inspired bets

- 1pt win 40-1 Trance 2.50 Newmarket
- 1pt win 20-1 Prime Defender 4.10 Newmarket

Gammer v Steeds - Steeds to win on points - 7/1 Totesport, 4pts.

Given these boxers recents records, I think it is likley that this match will go to points. Thes prices on the points outcomes are

Gammer 8-11
Steeds 7-1

Gammer is short because he is a (slightly) better boxer and has a past defeat of Steeds. However, Totepsort have overreacted and the 7-1 on Steeds on points is a great price... I'd make it closer to a 3-1 chance.

Padraig Harrington - European Order of Merit - 7-1 (Betfair) - 5pts Win

If Harrington wins today (for which is is an approx 5/4 chance, he will be probably be a 6-4 chance to win the Eupean OoM. He will still be a little being the leader Casey, I believe he will then decide to play in the Mallorca tournament (I suspect his participation depends on his performance this weekend.)

There is then the final event of the season (the Volvo Masters) where there is a large amount of prize money up for grabs...

Stricly Come Dancing - Mark Ramprakash - 16-1 - 4pts win - William Hill

Having watched SCD, I belive that Mark Ramprakash as a live chance. His dancing partner has ensured he (like her previous partner) has make strong progress in in the initial 3 weeks. As Darren Gough showed in the previous series, being a sportman rather than entertainer is no barrier.

Likely (male) rivals are Ray Fearon and DJ Spoony, but the British public have not great records in voting for non white particpants. He is more lilely to be beaten by a femal partcipant, most probably Emma Bunton or Loiusa Lytton (going on pre-SCD experience.) However, they are both corresponding short prices and I prefer to see partcipants before placing my bets.

Rail Link/Arc - the bet that nearly got away.

Approx. 1 month ago I looked at Arc trends and it was clear that the winner of the Prix Niel has a strong record in the Arc. I looked at likley winners of the Prix Niel and it looked like this would be Rail Link.

I even went as far as asking for prices from bookies.... only some would offer prices (some hadn't heard of the horse!)), 25-1 being the general price. Rather than backing my judgement at that point (which I should have done), I thought I would wait until the line up to the Prix Niel was clearer (not sure at that point what the entries were). I didn't expect prices to change much.

Of course, as the day of the Prix Niel approaches, Rail Link's price crashed to approx 7-1! A win in the Prix Niel was not overly imprssive, so he therefore remained at 7-1.

I did't expect to have a bet in the Arc. However, approx 5 mins before the race, watching BBC coverage, it was clear that the Japanese had gone mad and backed Deep Impact into 1-2 on the PMU. Consquently Rail Link was approx 25-1, the price I'd misssed 1 month ago!

Therefore, I had 2pts on the PMU at what turned out to be 24-1.

I am sure this sort of opportunity will raise it's head in the Breeders Cup... my advice is to look for overseas horse that are overpriced on the American Tote... however, you will need to react quick i.e. place bets close to the off - I'd take the UK morning prices as accurate representation of chances of overseas horses.

Miss World - Miss Slovenia - 100-1-1pts win

Miss Slovenia has the looks and personality to make a serious challenge for Miss World. She has the darker skin/dark hair that has been particulary successful recently. She is a member of Mensa, a successful business womain and President of a Peace foundation.

http://www.missworld.tv/bio/bio.sps?iBiographyID=92266

F1 - Toyota have podium possibilities in China Grand Prix.

I'm having 1pt on both Ralf Schumacher (50-1) and Janro Trulli (50-1) to grab a podium position. (2pts in total)

Everything depends on the weather tomorrow. If it rains, the Michelin runners will dominate the race (barring extraordinary circumstances, always a possibility in the rain). However, with dry conditions (or drying), things could be much closer. In this case, the Bridgestone clad Toyotas have podium possibilities. They were unlucky in (wet) qualifying. However, if the track is dry, China is a circuit you can pass on and the Toyotas could make their way through the field.

Of course, they will probably need some retirements during the race, but with potentially changing weather conditions this is more likely than usual.

Hungary shows what is possible in F1 when the rain comes down...

3.45 Newmarket - Fairmile - 2pts win 9-1

With stamina doubts for the fav. I belive he is there to be shot at. I'm backing Fairmile... the postives are as follows:

- Good draw (high, 32)
- 4 year old
- Lightly raced and good recent form (and improving)
- Will handle soft ground (has won on it)
- 1m 1f trip no problem as can stay 1m 2f

At a bigger prices, I like Illustrious Blue and Stagelight, but I'm sticking to just one bet.

Lay Gordon Brown at 1.5 for next Labour Leader

When Newsnight used pollster Chuck Luntz to show Cameron had the greatest appeal to votes, his price halved overnoight for the Conservative leadership (which he went onto win). With a poor Tory Conference speech, Davisd Davies nver recovered.

Tonight, Chuck Luntz will show on Newsnight what little appeal Gordon Bron have to voters and this coudl have a similar affect to the Cameron program.

Either way, this is a lay to back bet (this week) - I can't see anything improving the situation and, as a conseqence of this pogram, Brown could drift to 1.6/1.7.

(I'm already on John Reid at 18-1 for next Labour Leader who does well in the program... his price has havled to 9/1)

Champ Cars - Road America - Preview

Sportingodds have made a serious 'rick' on this race. This have priced up AJ Allmendinger at 7-1 when other bookies have more accurately priced him at 5-2. I would have has a max. bet on this, but Sportingodds have limited my stake to 3pts win.

His low place on the grid (5th) is primariy dure to the Sat. qualfiying session being washed out.

Alex Tagliani is also good value at 20-1 at Stan James... I've had 1pts E/W. Sportingodds go a (baffling) 9-2... he is probably an approx 12-1 chance.

Position after 9 months.

Position after 9 months

Points staked on settled bets = 588.5
Points returned on settled bets= 822

Profit on settled bets = 28.4 %

Points staked on unsettled bets = 50.5

Most of my Antpeost bets have fortunately come in... having locked in my profits on Ferrari, my only signficant Antepost bet left oustanding is on Sports Personality of the Year where I have 6 pts on @ 11/1 (now a 6/4 chance).

I'm hoping to add Man Utd at double figures at some point to add to my 15/1 on Arsenal and 18/l on Liverpool. I'm hoping to be neutral on Chelsea if they touch Evs at any point.

Ryder Cup Preview

I am absolutely convinced that Europe will win the Ryder Cup. For this reason, it is quite possible that the top US point scorer could could be won with a low figure.

I'm siding with JJ Henry at 33-1 at Ladbrokes. With top 10 finishes in his last 3 tournamnets, he is a man in form and has been selected to play on the first morning. A win then could mean that he gets to play in a good few Ryder Cup matches.

The tough weather will mean that is long driving is an asset. I'd make him a 12-1 chance.

I'm having 2pts E/W.

Liverpool - Premiership - 18-1 (Betfair) - 4pts

I'm adding this bet to a portfolio I;m building up on the 'Big 4' in the Premiership. I now have the following:

Liverpool - 4pts 18-1
Arsenal - 4pts 15-1

I don't believe the gap between Man Utd/Chelsea vrs Arsenal/Liverpool is a large as the market suggests... this is a typical short term market over-reaction.

Update: Following Arsenal's win, they have shortened in price from 20-1 to 10-1 on Betfair. Nothing better illustrates the madness of markets.

Liverpool to beat Chelsea (5-1), Arsenal to beat Man Utd. (7-2) - Double (approx). 25-1 Betfair - 2pts

I've spent a little time looking at these matches and I think all results in each match are very possible. For that reason I'm having a speculative double on Liverpool/Arsenal.

I just can't see how Chelsea/Man Utd can be value at a shade of odds on/odds against.

Update: Extrabet seem to be displaying very strange prices on 'Anytime Goalscorer'. They are top price (often by a signficant margin)

Horse Racing Update - Ayr/Newbury - 6pts Loss

Across the 2 days of each of these meetings, I managed to lose 6pts. While not much in the scheme of things, by reducing the no. (and increasing the size) of my bets I maneged to miss out on the following winners:

In these races I had 'no bet' when I thought these were the values bets! Oh well.

Fri 4.30 Ayr - Geojimali - Silver Cup EP 33-1 (William Hill), SP 20-1 .... drawn on highest (with a draw a likely signifcant factor)
Sat. 2.25 Newbury - Captain Marvelous - Opened 25-1, SP 20-1...one of only 2 horse with Grp 1. entries.

In additon, 2 weeks before the Prix Niel, I had a strong fancy that Rail Link woudl win. It was approx 25-1 at for the Arc at the time.. it is now an 8-1 shot!

IRL - (Partial) Cover on Championship

Those who raed my column regularly will know I backed Sam Hornish at 9/2 (10pts) at the start of the seaosn (March 2006). He has been as short as 1-8 at one point in the season (followed by a DNF!).

The betting on the IRL championship now with one race to go is:

Hornish, Sam 8/13
Castroneves, Helio 5/4
Wheldon, Dan 16/1
Dixon, Scott 28/1

As a cover, I've now had 4 pts on Wheldon and 2pts on Dixon. What I'm *hoping* is to be able to back Castroneves at 16/1 at some point during the race (when I will then have full cover).... the worst case scenario will be a Castroneves win from start to finish... I'll then have lost a further 6pts by attempting to cover!

NFL Superbowl - 2pts E/W 1/4 1,2,3,4 Arizona Cardinals - 40-1

Arizona had a strong defence last season but were let down by their inabilty to convert their offensive possesion into touchdowns. Consequenty, they finished a disappointing 5-11. The addition of running back Edgerrin James should go part way to resolving this issue. With Field Goal specialist Neil Rackers, Arizona could spring a suprise.

2pts - 1st Goal Scorer - Darren Bent - 16-1 - Chelsea v Charlton

Darren Bent (Charlton) has scored 3 golas already this season (2 of them penalties). If Charlton are to take the lead against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, it is likely that he will score the goal. The 16-1 at Betdirect is more than fair.

1pt E/W Sami Hyppia 1st Goal Scorer (Bet Direct) 40-1 - 1/3 1,2,3,4

Sam Hyppia scores approx 5% of Liverpool's goals, therefore the 40-1 at BetDitewct is good value. Bet Direct also offer good E/W value going 1/3 odds 4 places.

Everton v Liverpool is often a tight game, but there is a reasonable possibility of 4 goals.

Blair Switch Project - 1pt Oct - Dec. 2007 (100-1), 1pts 2008 Onwards (66-1).

This week has shown how true it is that a 'week is a long time in politics'. Therefore, how long is a year? Blair has stated he will stand down by, at the latest, Sept 2006. However, there a variety of situations where Blair will claim 'it is the the national interest' for him to stay beyond this date. Therefore I am having the follwoing bets at Betfair:

Blair Switch Project

1pt Oct - Dec. 2007 (100-1)
1pts 2008 Onwards (66-1).

Ask - 2pts E/W - 20/1 St. Leger

Ask is proven over course, distance and likley ground. On official ratings he has a signifianct amount to find, but he is progressive and has a great chance of at least getting placed.

I think Sixties Icon is a poor value favourite at 5/4.

Update:

I remain convinced that Sixties Icon is a poor favourite. However, as well as Ask, I also like the chance of outsiders Mont Toile and Galient - both are 28-1 at Betfair. However, I am refraining from having any further investment in this race.

Macedonia v England - 2pts win Macedonia @ 14-1 (Betfair)

Macedonai have been underated in this match. They are a resonable side with good recnet draw with Holland. In the previous qualifying tournament against England there was a draw at St. Marys and a narrow loss at home.

Macedonia have a new manager with a good track record who is perfectly capable of engineeriung an upset.

(I also considered Macedonia HT/England FT at 33-1).

Rugby Union - Worcester v Bristol - No Tryscorer, Draw Scorecast - 200-1.

The Racingpost states today that last year there were 3/132 games that had 'No Tryscorer' with the game finishing a Draw.

The Worcester v Bristol game is likely to a close fought, low try scoring game. The weather is rainy/windy and both sides have strong defences. In addition, with this being the fisrt game of the season, both sides could be cautious.

I'm having a speculative 0.5 pts at Bet365 on this scorecast at 200-1.

Rugby Union - Premierhsip - Top Tryscorer Market

Sale and Leicester are two of the ourights favourites for the Premierhsip. so I have selected a player from each of these sides to be overall Premiership top tryscorer (at Ladbrokes):

- 2pst E/W 25-1 Steve Hanley (Sale)
- 2pts E/W 80-1 Geordan Murphy (Leicester)

Lock in min. 42 pts profit on F1 - (back Renault 11.5 pts @ 9/2, McLaren 0.5 pts @ 200/1)

With Ferrari now 1/5 favourites, now is the time to lock in the profts I made by backing Ferrari @ 6/1. To do this I've backed at Extrabet the following:

Reanualt 11.5 pts @9/2
McLaren 1pt @ 200/1... Renault/Ferrrai disqualfied?

This gives me a 42 pt win if Renault win and 48pt win if Ferrrai win.

( Given the uncertainty of F1 (e.g Dixon last nioght), I actually think that Renault are a more than fair price at 9/2).

Pakistan v England - 20/20 Lay Pakistan @ 1.04 (2pts)

Pakistan needed 30 from 32 balls with 6 wickets remaining. Inzy looked like he wasn't concentrating.... laid Pakistan for 2 pts @1.04 to win 50 pts.

1pt Darren Gough - Top English Batsman - 66-1

20/20 matches always have the potential for lower order batsman to topscore. Although this is Pakistan's fisrt 20/20 game, they have a strong attacking lineup and may be able to destroy England's top batting order.

Darren Gough has a lot to prove on his first game back, and has a chance to top score with the bat.

Dan Clarke 1.5 pts win 0.5 pts place 40-1 - Grand Prix of Montreal

With the wet track, there is the chance of an upset in this race (cf. Hunary for F1 3 weeks ago). 'Speedy' Dan Clarke (placed last time) is perfectly capable of providing this upset.

He was placed in the last race when Tracy collided with Bourdais (an event that could easily happen again!).

Clarke is a generally availible at 40-1.

Post Race Update: Dan Clarke finished 4th by backing up the field to let his colleague, who was pitting, finish 3rd.

6pts win 11/1 (Extrabet) Zara Philips - Sports Personality of the Year

Zara Philips has just won the Gold in the 3 day eventing World Championships. I am 'gutted' I missed the 40/1 last night on Zara Philips to win SPoY (when she was likely to win gold, or the 16/1 at William Hill while I was trying to register a new Credit Card online).

However, the 11/1 at Extrabet is still a great price on her to follow in her mother's foosteps in weak SPoY market. She has a strong combination of public recognition and actually winning an World Championship event (on BBC, which will help). By betting on Extrabet, this also gives me a chance to lock in a profit at a later date.

Most bookies suspened betting in the last 15 mins (as the price crashed from 28/1 to 8/1). Betfair are still currently trading - Zara is 3/1 (little liquidity)

This bet adds to my current portfolio of Jenson Button (start of sesaon) and Colin Montgomerie (during US Open).

Update: Now into 5/1 (3/1 at William Hill, 2.9 matched on Betfair)!

2nd Update: Zara Philips is now a 3/1 chance! I think this is a 2 horse race between Philips and Murray (which will be decided by how far Murray progresses in the US Open.)

1pt win - Regional Counsel - Curragh 4:25 (Saturday)

I placed this bet yesterady, so this is just for the record. I quite fancied the horse as it was the only one with Group Level form.... managed to finish 5th of 7

IRL - Grand Prix of Sonoma - Preview - 8:30 Sunday

As per my early post this week, I am convinced that (still) the bookies have priced this market wrong. For a road race course, the most likely winners are Castroneves and Dixon.

I have 4pts win on Dixon at 15/2... he is now approx 7/2. He is on pole and should be 2/1 chance. I have now placed a cover bet on Castroneves (1pt, 11/2 - should be a 5/2 chance) and Andretti (0.5pts, 12/1).

I have Hornish for the championship, but have a strong feeeling he probably needs to finish within 4-5 places of Castroneves (which could be tricky).

N.B. Hornish and Wheldon are terrible prices at the availible odds.

Post Race Update: I wish Betfair traded on this race....Dixon was 0.5 s quicker than the rest of the field and at 2/3 distance, he was trading at 1/8 at Stan James (I'd have laid at 1.2). A problematic pitstop under yellow put him far back in the field.

At least my cover bet on Andretti returned my stakes. In addition, in most scenarios, Hornish now just need to beat Castroneves for my 10 pt title bet on Hornish to come in... I'd make Hornish a 4/6 shot now (I'm on a 9/2)

Arsenal to win Premiership - 4pts 15/1 Betfair.

Arsenal have been unlucky in their first 2 games. The Betfair market has totally overreacted (as it always does with teams who have a bad start) and pushed Arsenal out from 9/1 to 15/1. It is a 38 game season!

I'm not convinced that Arsenal will win the championship, but Id be very surprised if the market didn't move in my favour, giving opportunities to layoff with a guaranteed profit.

Lock in of 50 pts. profit on Davis Love III

When Dvais Love when 3 pst clear last night (with 1.5 rounds to go), and went approx. even money I decided to layoff my 2pt bet @ 60/1.

Davis Love III them promtly hit 3 bogies (and no birdies) for the rest of the 3rd round. He is now out to 10/1.... (lowest price matched even money!)

ALtough I won the same money last week on the cricket, I am much prouder with this effort.

Update after 8 months: 23.9 % profit

Position after 8 months

Points staked on settled bets = 534
Points returned on settled bets= 662
Profit on settled bets = 23.9 %

Points staked on unsettled bets = 56.5

Still unhappy that Romero manged to fisnsh 8th in the Open when a top 7 finish would have given me a 100/1 payout. (he was 3rd with 1/2 round to go), but England winning was an unexpectd bonus in the Test cricket.

Canavoro not winning player of the World Cup tournament at 6-1 was also a sickener - if the poll hadbeen made at the end of the match he woudl have been a certainty rather than losing by 1%.
Dan Clarke (mechnaical problems) when a close 2nd (E.W 50-1) was also diasappointing.

Antepost wise, things are looking great with the following bets looking in with good chanes of a payout

- Crawley - Top batsman (Select 12) - 12-1 (4pts) - probably am approx. 1-2 chance now
- Ferrari - Top F1 Constructor - 6-1 (10pts) - 1-2 chance now
- Hornish - Indy Racing winner - 9-2 (10pts) - probably an even money chance now... has been as short as 1-8 :( until a DNF 2 races ago with a meachnical problem. Castroneves is a big danger.

Come on Davis Love III this weekend!

Andy Murray - US Open - 2 pst win - 50-1 Betfair

I am suprised to see Andy Murray is availible at 50-1 ofor the US OPen. If first 2 rounds are straight forward which will put him into a last 16 clash with (potentially) Gonzalez.

A new coach could enable Murray to make that final step up....

... If I was betting to smaller stakes, I'd back at Boylesports.com who are refunding your stake if your player goes out to the 2 favs. in the Mens/Womens tournaments. I'm tempted to back their 1st round opponents (as this is a 'bet to nothing'), however I don't like the phrase 'T & C's apply'.. anyone wan't to contact Boylesports for an answer?

Indy Racing - 4pts Win - Scott Dixon - Infineon Raceway

Scott Dixon was a great price at 15-2 for the race this weekend - he should have been a approx 5-2 chance. I've ahd 4pst win. This is a 'Road Race' whch therefore favours Castroneves and Dixon.

Bet365 priced this race up as a conventional Oval race, I major mistake. Once the books re-open tomorrow (Sunday) morning (after final qualifying), I suspect you will still be able to get approx. 5-1 on Dixon, whih would still be a good price.

I would stay away form Hornish and Wheldon at short prices as they are unsuited by these types of tracks. I'd be suprised if either of tehse 2 favourites win.

Golf Trading Update - WGC Bridgestone - 2pts win Davis Love - 60/1 Betfair

In running in the 2nd round last night, I placed a 2pot win bet on Davis Love at 60/1. He is now approx 14/1.

Thiungs coudl have been a lot better if DAvis Love has sunk one of the 2 puts on wither 17 or 18 or Tiger had not had such a miraculous bogey on 18 via a free drop.

I can;t see Davis Love winning, but a good round today coudl mean that I coudl layoff at 2-1.... more lickly Tgetr if will go 5 clear and I will have done my money again!

Golf Trading Update - Sudnay 20th August - PGA

I maanged to lose 2 pst backing David Toms at 33-1 for PGA. I need to learn to stoip backing against Tiger Woods in Majors....

Finally a bit of luck! Engalnd to beat Pakistan 2pts 25-1

Just before tea last Sunday, I had 2pts on Betfair at 25-1 on an England victory. I'd like to say this was a piece of inspired gambling, where I'd realised the possibility that the match might be voided.

In reality, it was just me thinking that the Engladn win shoudl be an approx. 12/1 -14/1 chance. (They coudl have set Pakistan a total of approx 150-175 at 12 midday the next day).

The best bet woull have been 12-1 on England as the Pakistan players stayed in the dressing room... wasn't alive enough to this market change. Anyhow, made for an interesting Sunday evening as rumours flew around....

Racing Update - Newbury - 19/08/06

I had 3 bets (1pt each) at Newbury last weekend, fortunately 1 winner @ 20-1 (Jamison Gold, 2.10 Newbury). This was a great price has he had been badly drawn at Acost previously and, when the rain came down, had the ground he needed.

Apologies for the laste posting of the result, work has been very busy...

Newcastle v Ventspils - Ventspils to win (28-1) Betfair.

28-1 is simply to big on ... I'm having 1 pt on a shock outcome... never underestimate the capacity for Newcastle to self destruct.

Newbury 3.10 - 33-1 - 2pts Win - Self Defense

I believe Self Defense is overpriced at 33-1 in this 5 runner race... the horse is only slightly below the standard of the other 4 horses in the race. With soft ground and a (potentially) tactical race, I'm having 2pts win.

Watford to make flying start in August.

Paddypower are outsanding in the number of markets they have on the Premiership.

I have already had 4pts on Kitson (Reading) at 100-1 to be the first Premiership goalscorer to 10 goals (now a 50-1 chance.)

They have now opened up prices on leading Premiership Goalscorer and Team at the end of August.

Leading Premierhip Team at End of August.

I think they have priced these up wrong as they have not factored in that Liverpool and Arsenal have had one of their games cancelled (due to Champions League) and therefore 4 premiership teams will only play 2 rather than 3 games. This makes these 4 teams very unlikely to be leading the Premiership at the end of August.

I thik you shoudl try to back a team who play 2 /3 of there games at home.

A very good case can be made for Tottenham (8-1) who are the only side not to play one of the 'Big 4'. However, at odds of 125-1 I 'm backing Watford (2 pts). Their games are

Everton v Watford
Watford v West Ham
Watford v Man Utd

If they win there first 2 games, there will be opportunities for laying off.

Top Premiership Goalscorer at End of August

This may be won (or joint won) with as few as 2 goals. For this reason I'm backing Marlon King (Watford) E/W at 50-1 (2pts E/W).

3.30 Ripon - Josh 1pt win 20-1 Corals

I am fairly confident that the winner of thsi race will come from a high draw. Josh has dropped signficantly in teh handicap and can poick up this prize... I woudl have had more than 1pt, but this was the max bet that Coirals woudl allow at there prices from 10-10.15 a.m.

He is suited by course, distance and the ground andI think will probably start around a 10-1 chance. I'm also considering a combination bet on high drawn horses....

Tennis - Andy Murray to win US Open - 40-1 - 0.5 pts - betandwin.com

betandwin.com are going a standout 40-1 on Andyt Murray to win the US Open. With a new trainer, this outstanding (progressive) prospect has a real chance of landing this title.

A general 16-1/20-1 chance, I've had 1/2 pt @ 40-1 at betandwin.com. I don't expect it to last long...(P.S. I tried to have more, but this was their max. bet :( )

Snooker - Northern Island Trophy - 1pt Fu 66-1, 1pt Selby 50-1

I belive by far the easiest draw is the first quarter. The favoured players in this draw are Dott and Ebdon, but I don't fancy either of this players.

Dott is likley to underform under the pressure of being World Champion and Ebdon always reserves his best for the World Chamiopnship.

For this reason, I am backing Fu and Selby from this 1/4 to win outright. I think that is more than likley that one of these guys will make the semi-finals.

Fu has become revitalised after moving back to Terry Griifiths as a coach. He has since reached the World Semi Finals when he narrowly lost 17-16 to Ebdon.

Selby knocked out Higgin in the World Championship before losing to an inspired Mark Williams - this is great form.

Both are more than fair outright prices at 50/1 and 66/1.

FK Ventspils v Newcastle - 1st Goalscorer - 40/1 Bet365 - 1pt

I think Newcastle are quite weak at the back... so I'm having 1pt on the FK Ventspils defender Ndeki to open the scoring at 40-1 with Bet365. He has a strong goals/games ration for a central defender.

Alonso 1st Goalscorer - 20-1 Corals. Liverrpool v Maccabi Haifa - 2pts

The exact tem formation is unclear at present, however Alonso is likely to make the starting lineup. Against a wek opposition, irrespective of the tactical makeup, 20-1 is a great price. I'm having 2pts on this outcome.

Kitson (Reading) - 1st Premiership player to 10 goals - PaddyPowe - 100-1

I believe Coppell will continue with his attacking style of football at REading. If this is the case, Kitson (penalty taker) has a chance of being teh fist to 10 goals.

The lead attacker for promoted clubs have a reasonable record in the Premiership. It is difficult to see him being ther at the end of the season, but could ht 10 after approx 20 games - he has an execlllent goals/games record in the Championship last year.

4pst Win - Michael Schumacher - 100-1 - Quickest Official time.

I placed this bet in running during qualifying... however, I've paid the price of a losing bet by not reading the rules carefully enough. The fastest offical time included the 2s penalty. Ah well, a lesson learnt.

Horse Racing - Goodwood (Saturday)/Newbury (Sunday)

Nassau Stakes

Ouija Board is a worthry favourite. However, with a small field, the race may not be run to suit and is in, my view, too short at I'm having 2pts on Race for the Stars (16-1) to spring a surpise. He is well respected by Keiron Fallon, and has been working well. Stepping up in trip in 1m 2f, he is taken to make amends for is unlucky run in the .

Stewards Cup

I like the chances of 'Tax Free' and 'Bentong', but I'm palcing 1pt on 9-y-o Continent (50-1) from the sprint specialist Dandy Nicholls. He will need to return to his previous form to win this.... a little bit of rain would help!

Update : an afternoon at Newbury leaves me 3 pts down... just keeping my records update.

Big Brother Trading - Update

I think there is a huge amount of uncertainty now.

- Who will the pucblic vote in to the House Next Door?
- Who will the main flatmates choose to let in to the main house? Do they nknow whoever they bring back in can still win it? What will influence their decisions? Who they liked? WHo they thnk will challenge then?
- ....and then they got to bet Pete!

C4 look like thaey want Nikki back, but they way they have setup teh 2 sets of voting will mean they can't guarantee this.

I've now layed off at approx 12/1 on Nicky for 14 points (I think that is a very poor price to back). With the large amount of uncertainty, I've spread these points on the following:

Mikey - 6 points (250/1)
Leah - 1 point (500/1)
Grace - 1 point (400/1)

In summary, I''m now level on all outcomes other than Mikey, Nikki, Leah, Grace and 'Any Other' - up significanly on all of these....

Nikki - 2pts Win - Big Brother - 150/1 (Betfair)

Thre is a strong rumour that Nikki will be sent back in the Big Brother house tonight. I'm not sure whether she will be allowed to win (in the one previous example the re-entrant wasn't) but 150/1 gives me a good trading opportunity.

Geordieland - 4pts Win - Tote Ebor -16-1

I was very impressed with Geordieland's run in the Goodwood Cup today. Yates was a star but 2nd placed Geordieland was welll clear of the 3rd placed horse. A likely starter in the Tote Ebor (although not certain) he will run off a favourable rating.

If he makes the day, I suspect that he will turn up as a 5-1/6-1 chance.... and I thnk he will win it.

San Jose GP - Dan Clarke 1pt E.W 50-1

Dan Clarke has looked 'pacy' in both practice & qualifying and has a great chance of finishing in the top 3. He would need a multiple collision (or something similar) in front of him to win but, with Tracy and Bourdais, this is not out of the question.

2pts Double @ Ascot - Mine (3.45) (6-1), Hearts Cry (4.20) (3-1)

I beliove that Mine and Hearts Cry both have solid chances... so it's a 2pt double for me.

World Matchplay Darts - Barrie Bates - 1pts E/W - 80-1

Taylor has a tough draw (especially in the 2nd round). Darts Man-of-the-moment Barrie Bates has a chance of upsetting the odds at a generally availible 80-1. This up and coming player has shown execllent form, not least recently in a final against the (absent) Barneveld.

Aston Villa -- Next Manger - Analysis

I'm having the following 4 bets on the next Aston Villa Manager, all at BetDirect

Graham Souness (50/1) - 2pts
Mick McCarthy (50/1) - 1pt
Roy Aikten (33/1) - 1pt
Andy Gray (500/1) - 0.5 pts

My main bet is on Graham Souness - he's got Premiershp experience, a good relationship with Doug Ellis, is a 'big name' and would be seen as a 'strong hand' to bring discpline to a out of control dresing room. I personally think it would be a disasterous appointment, but that is irrelevant.

My next bet is on Roy Aitken - 33/1 is a great price on a caretaker manager who has made it clear that he would take the job. If Doug Ellis striggles to fill the position before the start of teh year (and Aitken makes a good start to the season), he could get the job permanently.

I can't resist 0.5 pst on Andy Gray at 500/1... it would take a lot to make him come back into football management but Aston Villa is perhaps the only club that might be able to persuade him.

For the record, I think the fisrt 3 ion the betting (Curbishley, O'Neill and Cownans are all lays). Curbishly is very shgort at a top priced 6/4, I woudl be vey suprised if O'Neill took it (5/1)). Surely is they were considering an internal appointment. they would have made Cowans the Caretaker manager.

Indy Racing - Dan Wheldon (5/1) 4pts Win, Sam Hornish (4/1) 1pts win

Noting has changed my mind that the 2 best drivers by a considerable margin in Indy Racing are Dan Wheldon and Sam Hornish.

The 5/1 anbd 4/1 respectively are both great prices.... I;m having my main bet on Dan Wheldon to end his unlucky run and a cover bet on Sam Hornish.

British Open - Romero - 400/1 (E.W 1/4 odds) 1pt E.W 1-7 Places

The British Open has a record of outsiders winning and being placed. An outsider I like is Romero who had an eye catching performance in last weeks tourney. He looked calm under pressure and I can see him creeping into a top 7 place. (Jennings are the bookie who has these generous terms.)

The Argentinian's handful of previous European tour rounds this year have been erratic, he will just need to string 4 good rounds together!

Update: As this is my gambling log, a note I managed to lose 5pts trading on the golf over the weekend. Always difficult to make a profir when the fist bet you lay is 4pts on Toger Woods at 5-1 (to payout 20 pts)!

Ferrari - F1 Constructors Championship - 10pts Win - 6/1

Halfway through the season, the Constructors standings are as follows:

Renault - 131
Ferrari - 105

... and the rest nowhere.

With a strong performance at Renaults 'home track' in qualifying in France, Ferrari appear that they may have the 'momentum' behind them with improved performance with the Bridgesone tyers. The fact this is realted to tyres (rather than underfuelingt) is reinforced by the performance of the Bridgestone shod Toyotas.

In addition, this is a good way to get with Massa who is underrated as a driver (and is handicapped by being the No .2 at Ferrari).

If Ferrari go well on raceday, the 6/1 quotes (for what is a 2 horse race) will have long since disappeared. (The 6/1 is only available at Sports Interaction, all other bokies go 5/1 which is a more than fair price as well.)

Friday/Saturday Racing Bets (for the record).

As part of the reason for this blog is my own recods, detailed below are my bets from Friday/Saturday (and results):

Friday - Newmarket - July Cup

Iffraaj - 1 pt win (8/1) (2nd)
Ashdown Express - 1pt E/W (40/1) (3rd)
La Cucaracha - 2pts (10/1) (unplaced)

Saturday - York

3.20 - Lost Soldier Three - 2 pts Win (8/1) (3rd)
3.50 - John Smiths Cup - Bustan - 1pt Win (100/1) (6th)

Indy Racing - Firestone Indy 200 - Dan Wheldon - 4pts win 9/2

I belive Dan Wheldon and Sam Hornish should be the strong favourites for the Firestone Indy 200 tonight. They are the front 2 on the grid, and have been the strongest drivers in recent races.

Stan James seem to have priced the market up correctly going 5/2 the pair. However, Sporting Odds have made Dan Wheldon a 9/2 - this is a more tha fair price, I'm having 4 pts win.

World Cup Final - Cannavaro to shine in high scoring thriller.

I belive that Cannavaro has been the best player in the tournament. I've had 2pts win (Ladbrokes) on Cannavaro to win the Golden Ball at 6-1 (I wanted 4pts, but they would only allow me 2 pts). His only danger is Zidane who, at 4-7, is too short. N.B This prcie has since gone.

3 out of 4 Italian defenders have scored so far. Therefore, in the likley absence of Gilardino, I'm having 1pt on Cannavaro at 40/1 to score the first goal. I've placed this at Jennings who return states if the match finishes 0-0. As it my first bet with them, they are also giving me the same (free) 1pt on Cannavaro at 40/1 last goalscorer.

Everone thinks that with 2 stromg defences this will be a low scoring match. Although this is perefectly possible, there is the possibility of an early goal which could open up the match. I've therefore had 4pts on +4.5 goals at 20.0 on Betfair (which a view to (potentially) trading out if there are 2-3 early goals.)

Williams v Skelton - Skelton to win Rds. 9-12 - 40-1 each rd.

Williams v Skelton is likely to be a close bout. Williams won last time on points, however it was a close decison. Typically, these fights finish inside the diatnce. Therefore it is a surpise to see the pts. decisions to be as short as 3-1 for each fighter.

Either fighter has the capcity to win this fight. Since the last fight, Williams has 'bulked up' and Skelton has had boxing 'lessons'. It is this additional weight for Williams that I believe could be his undoing. As the fight progresses, I think Williams' boxing skills will mean that he is ahead on pts. This will mean that Skelton will go forward and a Williams could suffciently tire to not get up from a big punch.

In addition, Williamns is never to be trusted at short prices due to his fragil mental state (remember Sproke?).

I'm having 1pt @ 40-1 on Skelton to win in each of the last 4 rds.

Saturday Racing bets...

..........are as follows:

Coral Eclipse 3.15 Sandown

- 1 pt E/W - Royal Alchmeist - 250-1 (!)
- 1 pt E/W - Notable Guest - 25-1

- 2pt Win 2.05 Sandown - The Tatling - 10-1
- 2pt Win 2.35 Sandown Capable Guest - 12-1
- 2pts Win - 3.30 Haydock - Star of Light - 8-1

1pt double The Tatling/Star of Light

Full logic to follow after....

Update after 6 months. - 27.9% profit on turnover.

Position after 6 months

Points staked on settled bets = 454
Points returned on settled bets= 581
Profit on settled bets = 27.9 %

Points staked on unsettled bets = 40.5

A unprofitable World Cup (likey to be zero wining bets!) has reduced by profitability from 53.3% to 27.9 % (below the 40 % I was looking to achieve) (winning points from 153 to 127)

Reiewing my bets in the past 2 months (when I did my last update), the things I woudl have done differently were:

- backed Marquez (and Senderos) in all games to score first/last in the World Cup
- backed teh Schumacher/Massa Dual Forecast at 5-2 (US Grand Prix)

Massa to shine in USA - 4pts win, Fastest Lap (12-1), 4pts Handiciap Win (+15s) - Bet365

I belive that the Ferraris will have a signficant advantage in the USA Grand Prix (confirming qualifying form). An option would be to back Michael Schumacher at 1-2, but that is not my kind of bet - I believe that the difference between Mass and Schumachr is not massive. However, as team orders may play a part I am also reluctant to back Massa outright.

I seriously considered 5/2 on the Dual Forecast. However I believe I've come up with two better bets (which will both have a reasonable chance of happening if Ferrari dominate)

Massa to produced fastest lap - 12-1. Michael Schumacher is 5/6. I don't believe there should be such a difference.

Massa on the Handicap (see times below). I think that Massa with probably finish closer than 15s to Michael Schumacher. I can see a scenario where the Ferrais dominate and Masa is allowed to finish approx 2-3 s behind Michael Schumacher.

Michael Schumacher (Finish Time minus 0 min 0 secs)
Fernando Alonso (Finish Time minus 0 min 8.0 secs)
Giancarlo Fisichella (Finish Time minus 0 min 15.0 secs)
Felipe Massa (Finish Time minus 0 min 15.0 secs)
Kimi Raikkonen (Finish Time minus 0 min 20.0 secs)
Rubens Barrichello (Finish Time minus 0 min 45.0 secs)
Juan Pablo Montoya (Finish Time minus 0 min 45.0 secs)
Jenson Button (Finish Time minus 0 min 50.0 secs)
Jacques Villeneuve (Finish Time minus 0 min 55.0 secs)

Jarno Trulli - 2pts E/W USA Grand Prix Qualfying - 80-1

Jarno ran light in qualifying for the Canadian Grand Prix, giving him 4th place on the grid. If Toyota reapeat this strategy, he has a reasonable chance of securing a top 3 position in qualfying.

Jarno was first in the qualifying in the inaugral running of the race last year so clearly has a liking for the track.

Queen Cleopatra - 3.40 - Curragh 8-1 - 2pts win

The 3 yo fillies get a significant amount of weight in this race. This may mean we see an upset with Queen Cleopatra (placed in 2 classics) winning. 3 yo olds don't have a great record, but the trainer thinks the horse is progressive (her run in the Prix Diane last time was especially impressive).

Wimbledon Mens - S. Grosjean (150-1) 3pts Win, Gonzalez (400-1) 1pt Win (Betfair), Agassi 250-1 (Totesport) 1pt Win

Federer is rightly the favourite for the Men's Chamionship. However, he has a tough draw in the first quarter and it would not be a massive shock if went out in an early round. For that reason, I'm swerving him at 1-2.

The 2nd and 4th quarters are both weak - I can't see it is very likely that the winner will come from either of these quarters. However, at 250-1 I'm having 1pt on Agassi to roll back the years... there are cetainly worse 250-1 shots (as short as 50-1 in a place)!

For my other bets, I'm concentrating on the 3rd quarter. This is a tough quarter containing both Hewitt and Roddick. However, I'm not convinced either are at their best at the moment, so I've selected as my main bet Grosjean at 150-1.

Grosjean has excellent Wimblenon form (two 1/4 finals and a semi-final in the past 3 years and is a more than fair price.)

I can't resist 1 pt on Gonzalez (who has a reasonable Wimbledon record) - he is a short as 50-1 at conventional bookmakers!

2pts Frank Lampard - Budweiser MoM - England v Ecuador - 9-1

The Budweiser MonM is typically given to the goalscorer in the match. With Carrick playing a holding role, Lampard and Gerarrd (especially Gerrard) will get forward more. I suspect that the Budweiser MoM will go to either Gerarrd (6-1) or Lampard (9-1) (if they score).

I'm having 2pts on Frank Lampard at 9-1 .... he won this award in an earlier game.

6pt Win Sam Hornish 11-2 (Sporting Odds), 1pt 6-1 Dan Wheldon (Sports Interaction)

Hornish (11-2) and Wheldon (6-1) are both great prices to win the Suntrust Indy race tonight. Castroneves is too short ... his pole position may be (a little) false, with only one qualifying sesion

Both Hornish and WHeldon are suited by the track and I'd be suprised if one of them didn't the race.

Westmead Hawk to win 2007 Greyhound Derby - 201 - 4pts Win

If (and its a big if) Westmead HAwk enters the 2007 Greyhound Derby (and it is held at Wimbledon), 20-1 is going to look a very big price in a year's time.

I'm having 4pts win on Westmead Hawk to prove he is the greatest dog of all time (rather than 'just' an oustanding champion).

Sweden to progress to 1/4 finals. (World Cup) - 7/2 Betfair - 6 pts

Germany are the most likely to qualify for the quarter finals, but 7/2 is an insult to Sweden. Germany's form against top teams has been weak in the past 4 years and they were not paricularly impressive in the group stage.

Sweden have not been in great recent form either, however at 7/2 to progress further they have to be backed.

Booze Allen Classic - Rich Beem - 1pts E/W 150/1

Rich Beem has a real liking for this course. He frequently does well on this course, despite having poor recent form. This seaosn he has bits and pieces of form (better than usual!) whch make him an excellent E/W chance at 150/1.

Majestic Missile - 1.5 pts win 25-1 3.10 Ascot

Majestic Missile is an underrated 5f sprinter... some solid performences last year means that the 25-1 is a more than fair price.

Ignore its run this year, when he was drawn badly and ran keen early. In addition, he was not harsly treated once it was clear he wasn't going to win.

Malinga - Man of teh Match - 2nd ODI - Sri Lanka v England 22-1 Bet365 - 2pts

Malinga is, I believe, still underrated. A 5 wicket haul will probably be enough to win MoM. This is well within the grasp of a talented bowler like Malinga.

Berdych to beat Federer - 8.25/1 Betfair - Garry Weber Open - 4pts

Berdych is a great bet at 8.25/1 to win the final of the Garry Weber Open. Federer has not been playing great in this tournament (he has been taken to 3 sets in 3 of the 4 matches) and this match is ripe for an upset to end Federe's 40 match unbeaten stretch on grass.

Berdych has the advantage of being one of the few palyers to have beaten Federer (in 2004) so will have the belief to win the match.

If Federer win's this tournament, it will be 4 wins in 4 years, but he has admitted he is both mentally and physically tired after a long season.

Allmendinger (20/1, 2pts E/W), Junqueira (16/1 2pts E/W), Clarke (66/1 0.5 pts E/W) - Portland Grand Prix, Champ Cars

I've added to my Di Matta bet (3th on Grid, 25-1 E/W) with the following at Stan James.

Allmendinger (20/1, 2pts E/W) (2nd on Grid)
Junqueira (16/1 2pts E/W) (1st on Grid)
Clarke (66/1 0.5 pts E/W) (6th on Grid)

I'm not sure what Stan James are doing, but they are plainly wrong. If you have any doubt, check other bookies prices e.g Sportingodds.com - Allmendinger 9/4! I'd be very disappointed if, at the very least one of the 4 drivers werer not placed (returning my stakes) and there is signficant upside scope.

I'd have more iff StanJames would have let me......

Update: The markets are still all over the place.... I'ved added 0.75 pts win on Paul Tracy (Stan James, 20-1 (7-2 at Sporting Odds!) and 0.5 pts win on Clarke 50/1 Sporting Odds (12/1 Stan James!). Just waiting for Bourdais to take out Wilson on the 1st corner!

2nd Update: SportsInteraction have joined in the fun... I've now had a further 0.5 pts E/W at 120/1 (yes, 120/1) on Dan Clarke.

3.10 York Trafalgar Bay (2pts Win, 18.0) Pearly Wey, Trafalgar Bay 0.5 pts Reverse Exacta

Pearly Wey and Trafalgar Bay have what I believe to be the stronget (connected) form of the race. Pearly Wey is thought to have progressed well since their last meeting (hence his shorter price), but this is more than factored in. Trafalgar Way at 18.0 is a good price on Betfair.

Both horses tempt me, so I'm having a 0.5 pts Reverse Exacta.

Brazil v Australia - Australia to win in 90 mins - 16-1 expekt.com - 2pts

Australia are too big at 16-1 to beat Brazil. Brazil were not impressive in their first match, and this game is ripe for a shock result. Australia play agressive football, which is the ideal way to play against Brazil.

My only concern is that Hiddink (Australia's talented manager) may field a 2nd strength side...

Update: I've added to this 2pts on Australia at 10-1 (Draw No Bet) at Bet365.

Colin Montgomerie - Sports Personality of the Year - 33-1 - 0.75

Monty is 7-1 for the US Open, but available at 33-1 for SPoTY. Unless England win the World Cup (and there is a star player), I think Monty will proabbly win SPoTY if he wins the US Open. [He also has chances in the final 2 Majors].

Therefore I'm having 0.75 pts @ 33-1 on SPoTY - I'd have more but the bookies will only allow me to have 'buttons'....

Da Matta - Grand Prix of Portland - 2pts E/W - Bet365

This week has seen a merry-go-round in Champ Cars with the very experienced Da Matta leaving the back marker team Dale Coyne Racing to join one of the very top teams RuSPORT.

He is now with a top team and he loves Portland - winning the last 2 times he has visited - last year and in his championship winning year of 2002 (was in F1 during 2003 and 2004). I'm having 2 points Each Way with Bet365 at the outstanding 25-1 - he should be single figures.

Marquez - 1pts First, 1pt Last Goal scorer. Mexico v Iran

Mexico central defender Marquez has an excellent goal scoring record. His is great value at a generally available 25-1. I;m placing the bet with Paddy Power who return stakes if the last goal is a headed goal.

Olof Mellberg - Fisrt Goalscorer - 1pt E/W 40-1 Sweden v Trinidad and Tobago

Sweden are strong favourites to win this game. They haven;t been in great form lately, but T/T are one of the weakest teams in the World Cup.

Defender Olaf Mellberg could exploit any weaknesses in the Trinidad and Tobago defence (crucially missing Marvin Andrews).

I'm having 1pts E/W at Totesport at 40-1 (1/3 1.2.3)

John Terry - First/Last Goal Scorer, Anytime Goal Scorer - England v Paraguay

Paraguay are weak at pieces (the centre backs are relatively short), so I've selected John Terry to exploit this. There are 2 great prices available.

2pts First Goal Scorer (Free Last Goal Scorer bet) 18-1 -Totesport.
2pts Anytime Goal Scorer 11/1 - Interwetten.

World Cup 2006 Preview

Outright

I think Spain are underrated at 18-1 (8pts win). Known as underachievers, I think they will beta Brail in the ¼ finals and go onto win the trophy.

It is quite usual for outsiders to reach the semi-finals. At bigger prices I fancy at least one of Serbia and Montenegro/Ivory Cost to qualify from the Group C ‘Group of Death’. Consequently
I’ve backed Serbia and Montenegro (100-1, ¼ 1.2.3.4) and Ivory Cost (90-1, ¼ 1.2.3.4) (both
2pts E/W).

Top Goalscorer

I’ve already posted Toni (Italy) (2pts E/W 33-1) and Burgetti (2pts E/W) 66-1. I am adding to that 2pts E/W on Frei (Switzerland). All are the main goal scorers for their countries and have excellent place chances.

Group Results

As mentioned above, I think Group C is a really competitive Group., and think the prices on the

4 teams should be much closer than they are. I am therefore having 2pts on the Serbia and Montenegro/Ivory Cost Dual Forecast (33/1).

At more speculative odds, I’m having ½ pt 100-1 on Argentina to score zero points.

Top Team Goalscorer

With Rooney not playing until after the Group games, David Beckham has a great chance of scoring most England Goals. I’ve had 2pts at 16-1 on this outcome.

Birchall could play in an advanced midfield role for Trinidad and Tobago and is a big price alternative to current leading scorer John. I think Yorke is way to short in this market. I’m having 2pts at 28-1.

A similar statement can be made about Bresciano for Austrila – he is a more than fair price at 12-1. I’m having 2pts on this.

Top Pairs Goalscorers

Both the Swedish pairs (22-1) and Mexico pairs (33-1) look good outsiders in this market, I’m having 2pts on each.

Miscellaneous

I can’t resist 4pts on Owen to score the 1st England Headed goal (5-1).

Casillas (Spain) is a great keeper and, like Oliver Khan last time, can win the ‘Golden Ball’ player of the tournament. I’ve had 2pts at 150-1.

In all, a total investment of 46.5 points… approximately ½ my profits from this year!

Sam Hornish - Indy 500 - 4/1 - 5ps win Sporting Odds.

The greatest motor race takes place tomorrow and it is a long way from Monaco! It is the Indy 500 and there is an outstanding bet. The polesitter and best driver (with the strongest team) should be a clear favourite.

The onbly potential danger are is tem mate Castroneves and Dan Wheldon. However, I expect this to be Hornish's year.

BMW Chamionship - Trevor Immelman - 20/1 2pts win

Immelman is in great forman present (11-2-2) and was 2nd here 3 years ago. I think he has a great chance and is a more than fair price at the genrally availible 20/1.

Man of the Match - England v Sri Lanka - Lasith Malinga - 22-1 - 2pts win

Malinga will have a point to prove, having been left out from the 1st test. A good performace (5 wicket haul) against Sussex means he is bang in form. All eyes will be on Muralitharan, but I think Malinga may suprise if Enland put on a poor show.

Next Labour Leader - John Reid 1.5pts 14-1 Stan James.

Favourites don't have a great record in party leadership elections.

John Reid has the most to lose if Gordon Brown becomes the next labour leadewr and is hence the most likley to stand against him.

If/when he stands he would have an approx 3-1 chance, so the 14-1 at Stan James is a great price. Unfortunatley they will only allow me 1.5 pts. I'm trying to get more at Betfair...

Big Brother- Any Other Winner - 4pts - Beftair.com

This group of Brig Broither housemates are freaks and weirdos. The 'Golden Ticket' winner is likely to be a one of the favourites.... many people remember 'Charlie and the Chocoalte Factory'.

There is also the possibility of other entries....

At 10-1, I think 'Any Other Winner' is a great price.

Eurovision Song Contest - Turkey, 2pts E/W 100-1

To win the Eurovision Song Contest, the factors I believe are the following:

1. Country - Baltic/East European country- many of these countries give each oither points. Now then no. of runers have been enalrged, I think it will be a long time before we see a West European winner.
2. Strong Semi-Final appearance - unfortunately this information is not availible!
3. Position - Late as possible appearance - means you are fresh in the mind of the voters.
4. Language - Difficult to win with a song not sung in English.

Using these factors, I'eve slected Turkey. I've also respect for Russia, Romania and Greece, howveer all are much shorter prices.

The factors in favour of Turkey are the following:

- Position - very late runner
- East European
- Qualified via Semi Final... so was in the top half!

There is a concern over language as there are both a Turkish and English versions.... not sure which verison she will sing.

The song is fair (although a little 'spoken'), and she is reasonably attractive. She is also an experienced performer who should not be overawed by the situation. As the event is in Greece, she will get good crowd support. She is a little 'static' in the video but I'm sure her stage show will be better - apparently she peroformed well in the semis.

2pts Win - 2.45 Newbury - Common World - 25-1

Common World's form is below that of Soviet Song but not that far of the other runners in this race. The Soft ground means that a surprise is more likely, and I'm plumping for Common World at 25-1.

Spanish Grand Prix - 1pt E/W - Ralf Schumacher 100-1

Alonso and M. Schumacher are likley to dominate this race, but the 3rd place is up for grabs. With the Mclaren cars back on the grid, the race for 3rd is particularly open this week.

Ralf Schumacher is 12-1 for a Podium position (probably an accurate price... I'd make it a 10-1 chance), so by backing him E/W you are effectively getting a 'free' win bet.

FA Cup Final - Man of the Match - Gerrard, Any Goal Keeper

Gerrard is a solid favourite for this at 4-1 (the 13-2 early this week was great value). However, as the value has now disappeared, I'm siding with 'Any Goal Keeper' at 16-1. (betdirect.net)

Either goalkeeper could play great game and keep their side in the match... and then their is the possibility of penalties. (BBC MoM)

Update: I've found Sportingodds.com have put up 6-1 on Steve Gerrard! This can't last for long, I'm having 4pts on this (Sky MoM)

Boxing - 0.5 pts on each Rd 6-9 inclusive - Mayorga - 66-1 William Hill.

De LaHoya is a superb fighter, but age may be catching up with him. Mayorga is a street fighter who will look to win inside the distance (as he is likely to be outmatched on points). If De La Hoya has not fully prepared, a shock outcome could be on the cards.

3.50 Newmarket - Something - 16-1 Ladbrokes (Guranteed Early Morning Price)

I've had 2pts win on Something at 16-1 . Highly reagrded by trainer Terry Milles, and will be well suited by dropping back to 6f (he clearly didn't stay over 1 mile at a Group race at Sandown last time).

Droppiong back to handicap companyl and with a favourable draw in stall 29, I think he has every chance off top weight.

1.55 Haydock - Ken's Dream - 16-1 Ladbrokes (Guranteed Early Morning Price)

I've had 2pts win on Ken's Dream at 16-1. He looked impressive at Plumtton last time (apart from a final flight blunder!) and off a low weight can win this handicap hurdle.

Ralf Schumacher - European Grand Prix, Outright & Qualifying

Ralf Schumacher has good recent qulaifying form and has a liking for this circuit. He is 3rd in final practice this morning. Consequently., I think he is over priced in both the qualifying and ourtight markets.

I've had 1pt E/W @ 40-1 (Qualifying) and 1pt E/W @ 80/1 (Outright). The latter bet will look big if he makes top 3 in qualifying.

2000 Guineas - 4pts win - Horatio Nelson - 7-1

Horation Nelson has the strogest form and shoudl be suited by the trip/ground. At 7-1 he is a great price, I;md make him close to halve that price.

Keiron Fallon has chosen Gerorge Washington but this wouldn't be the fisrt time a jockey has been on the'wrong' horse. Although O'Brien feels he will come on from the race, I am sure he will be fit enough to win this race is he is good enough.

2000 Guineas/Derby - Ladbrokes Special Doubles

I am keen to oppose Geroge Washington with the doubts regarding his stamina and temperament. I am planning to do this by backing the next 2 in the betting (Sir Percy, Horatio Nelson) in 2000 Guineas/Derby Doubles:

2pts Horatio Nelson to win 2000 Guineas/Derby (25-1)
2pts Sir Percy to win 2000 Guineas/Derby (20-1)

These horse were 1st and 2nd in Dewhirst last year which is rock solid form.

Both have great chances in the 2000 Guineas which, if they win, will mean they will start favourite for the Derby (both have breeding that indicates that they will run well at by both 1m and 1m 4f).

Billy Mayfair 1pt E/W 66-1 - Wachovia

Billy Mayfair has decent recent & course form. I'm having 1pt E/W at the generally availible 66-1. I also have a liking for Mickelson @ Furyk, but these are much shorter prices.

Hibernian v Rangers - Hibs @ 9-1 (Coral Shops) - 2pt win

Corals over underestimated Hibs' chance of winning... 9-1 is an insult, I'd make it a 5-1 chance at most. I'm not keen on backing in individual matches, but this chance is too good to miss.

Top World Cup Goalscorer - Burgetti - 66-1 - 2pt E/W

Those of you are follow my gambling exploits will know I'm already on Luca Toni (Italy) at 33-1 (2pts E/W) for top World Cup goalscorer (now top priced 25/1)

To this I'm adding 2pts E/W on the Bolton striker Burgetti (aka the 'Desert Fox'). He is the leading striker for Mexico, who have a strightforward qualification group (Portugal, Iran and Angola). This means that they are likely to both score goals in the group stage and progress to the knockout stage.

The knockout stage is where it gets tricky with a tie against Holland/Argentina, however by this stage he may have already picked up 2-3 goals.

James Collins - 1st Goal Scorer - West Brom v West Ham - 1pt E/W - WIll Hill

James Collins has scored 2 goals in 13 appearances (both 1st goals). For this goals/games ratio, he is good value at 40-1 at William Hill.

I'm having 1pt E/W.

Update: Collins was rested, so it is stakes returned.

William Hill Greyhound Derby - Larkhill Jim - 200-1 - 1pt win - Betfair

Larkhill Jim (trained by Seamus Gaughan) ran a very respectable 28.85 over course (Wimbledon) and distance (480m) on April 22. This is a similar time to to previous runs over the 480m in Ireland.

I've looked at the previous 10 runnings of the Derby at the average winning time is 28.67. Therefore Larhill Jim would need a little improvement to feature in the final but, if he gets there, by trading on Betfair I will be able to lock in a profit.

Position after 18 Weeks

After 18 weeks:

Points staked on settled bets = 287
Points returned on settled bets= 440
Profit on settled bets = 53.3 %

Points staked on unsettled bets = 34

Steve McClaren - another trade! (Lock in 16pts profit).

At the risk of boring everyone with this, I've just laid Steve MClaren at 1.92 (24pts staked) to lock in a (further) profit of 16pts.

I thinl they final opportunity for trading on this market will be if there is a false rumoumour regarding an announcement having been made. I;m sure an announcemnet WILL be made this week... the FA can't let this go on much longer!

3.20 Sandown - Betfred Gold Cup - 2pts win Risk Accessor (Betfair)

Risk Accessor is an unreliable horse but has the ability to win a rac e like this. After diving out of the course the last time he was at Sandown, he had 2 repectable runs at Chelteham and Aintree. He is a short as 12-1 at Stan James (25-1 Betfred), but I'm taking a chance at 33-1 on win only at Betfair.

Steve Mclaren - Next England Manager - New trading opportunities.

I reckon there may be more twists and turns in the next England Manager market. Due to my previous trades, I've backed 6pts on Steve Mclaren @ 7.6.

I think there may well be an opportunity to lay Scolri at 1.3.... it is possible that, for whatver reason, the FA can't come to an agreement with him (e.g. if they wish to mnake an immediate announcement (.e before the World Cup) which the Portguses FA won't allow). In this case there will be an opportunity for further trading!

5pts win Alonso - San Marino Grand Prix - 4-1 Betfair

Although Alonso is back in 5th on the grid, he is the class of the field this year. Provided he is not held up too much by the Hondas (and Massa), he is likely to overhall even money favourite Michael Schumacher.

4-1 is a great price, I'm having 5pts win.

Luis Garcia - 1st Goal Scorer - 14-1 Liverpool v Chelsea- 2pts

Both Gerrard and Garcia have good goals/matches ratios. Although Gerrard is the proverbial 'big game' player, I've a slight preference for Garcia due to the fact he will probbaly play in a more forward role today than usual.

The 14-1 at William Hill and Victor Chancdler is more than fair... I'm having 2pts on 1st goalscorer.

Sunderland (8-1) to beat Portsmouth - 2pts win.

Portsmouth are playing much better recently, and are the 'obvious' choice to win this game. They are in despearate need of the points, unlike Sunderland who have nothing to play for.

However, everything in betting depends on value... and, at as short of 1-3, they are no bet. Instead, I'm siding with Sunderland at the generally availible 8-1 to pull off a shock win.

Jon Wong - 1st Elimination - 9-1 - Paddy Power Irish (Poker) Open

Vincent Mellin an Ian Woodley have both too many cjhips and to much experience to go out early. Therefore the only other value options are Brendan Ruane, Conor Smth, Jon Wong and Paul Daly

Paul Daly is rightly favourite for first to be eliminated. However, at 1-7 he is too short. To stay in Paul Daly will nee top double up twice, but he will have planned the correct time to move all his chips in.

Brendan Ruane has signficantly more chips than Conor Smith, so he is avoided. It therefore comes down to Conor Smith and Jon Wong, with marginal preference for Jon Wong as, in a head up with Conor Smith, Jon will be out if he loses (which wouldn't be the case the other way around).

I can see Conor and Jon playing perhaps too patiently waiting for Paul Daly to be eliminated.

A much better price is 9-1 on Jon Wong to be eliminated first.

Crawley - Top Run Scorer - 2006 - County Championship - Select 9 - 4pts win

Ladbrokes have formed a market with a selecetd 9 County Championship Players.

These are Hussey (Notts), Knight (Warwicks), Smith (Middlesex), Lehman (Yorks.), Loye (Lancs), van Jaasveld (Kent), Adams (Sussex), Benkenstein (Durham) and Crawley (Hants).

Crawley scored the highest no. of runs last year (although it was relatively close) so I would make him an apprxoimately 6-1 chance. For some reason Ladbrokes make him the 12-1 outsider!.... I'm having 4pts win @ 12-1 (another option was E/W 1/4 1.2.3, which is very fair).

Irish Grand National - 1pt win Supreme Developer - 40-1

The Irish Grand National is a very open race with many horses in with a chance. I think the favourite should be taken on. I've backed Ferdy Murphy's Supreme Developer @ 40-1, but you can make a case for several others.

First Goalscorer - Chelsea v Everton - Leon Osman - 25-1 (BlueSq) - 1pt

Leon Osman is likely to play in a (fairly) forward position today. He has netted 3 goals in the past 5 games. Although Chelsea are heavy favourites, this is more than compensated by the 25-1 availible on Lean Osman.

I'm not having much luck on first goal scorer bets at the moment, hopely this will change today!

Snooker , World Chamiponship - additional bets (Market Mistakes)

Interwetten have not updated their prices on the Snooker World Chamionship, even though some of the fisrt round matches are complete. I'm therfore tacking advantage of this by adding the following bets to my portfolio:

4 pts win Shuan Murphy @ 9-1 (currently 5-1 elsewhere)... from my previous post, I'm not a massive fan of his, but 9-1 is too good to miss.

0.5 pt win Mark Williams @ 20-1 (currently 10-1 elsewhere)

I am also tempted to add Ken Doherty @ 25-1 (currently 10-1 elsewhere) , but I already have 4pts on him at 28-1 at William Hill via the 'Rest of the World' market.

Cricket - Divison One - Nottinghamshire - 4pts win - 5-1

Nottinghamshire are (very solid) joint favourites at a generally available 5-1 for Division One. They where champions last year (from Hants, Sussex), and I can see no reason why the same team should not go close again.

Position after 16 weeks.

After 16 weeks:

Points staked on settled bets = 259
Points returned on settled bets= 401
Profit on settled bets = 54.8 %

Points staked on unsettled bets = 39

Steve Mclaren - Next England Manager - Close Position - Lay @ 1.65

Im now closing my position on next England Manger (Steve Mclaren). In my post on 12/02 /2006 , I staked 2pts at 33/1. I'm now laying this back at 1.65 making a locked in profit of 40pts.

I've been caught on previous Next Manger markets in the past, so I am glad to be able to close out my position!

First Goalscorer - Bolton v Chelsea - William Gallas - 33/1 - 1pt

William Gallas has scored 4 goals this season and is a more than fair price at the genrally availible 33-1 for 1st goal scorere ... I'm have 1pt win.

4pts - 28-1 - William Hill - "Rest of The World" Winner of Snooker World Championship

O'Sullivan is a weak favourite for this tournament. The most solid bet is John Higgins who has clearly the strongest form this season. However, he has a tough draw with O'Sullivan and Williams in his quarter (in the ).

The of the draw is weaker. Murphy has a easy draw, but returning first time champions have a poor record. Ebdon has a strong World Championship form, but his recent form is weak. The other quarter has 3 potential champions in Doherty, Hawkins and Stevens. I'm most keen on Doherty as he has both current form and World Championship form. The latter is usually required, the former is a benefit.

I think William Hill have made a mistake on their price for 'Rest of the World' Champion. The term 'British Isles' has several meanings. William Hill have confirmed with me that their interpretation of Btitish Isles does NOT include Republic of Ireland. Therefore, when backing 'Rest of the World' you DO get Republic of Island players.

I will therefore have running for me (@28-1)

Doherty
Robertson
Wattana
Fu

(and any others I've missed!).

Verizon Classic - Pat Perez - 80-1 - Ladbrokes - 1pt E/W

Although most of the favoured golfers in this event has reasonable chances (Cink, Olazabal and Davis Love), I'm siding with Pat Perez. He recent performance at the TPC was impressive and last year he made a solid appearance in this event.

Non particpants from the Masters haave a poor record .... the only downside.

Update : Bet365 incorretly stated to me on Thusrday evening that I would get refunded. However, within their rules, as Pat Perez had started the tournament), this bet should have been setteld as a loser. For this Blog, I'm going to mark it as a loser (as if I had no refund).

However, I woud like to give a note of thanks to Bet365 for honouring their mistake. I have a feeling that I may have an issue with William Hill coming up.......

Man Utd v Arsenal - Senderos first/last goalscorer - 66/1 Bluesq.com

Senderos has scored 2 goals from 16 league appearances and as such is overpriced at 66-1 for first/last goalscorer. I'm having 0.5 pts on each.

Grand National - Haut De Gamme 28-1 - 1pts win

I've already placed 4pts at 13-2 on a JP McManus winner 2 months ago. I'm adding that today with 1pt win on Haut De Gamme.

I think there are problay 5-6 potentails winners, with Haut de GAmme the longest price. I;m steering clear of anything > 28-1.

Basle Cente backs to cause havoc. 0.5 pts first goalscorer Majstorovic, Smijanic

Majstorovic and Smijanic have both execlllent goals/games ratios for centrebacks. For this reason, i;m having 0.5 pts on each of them for 1st goalscorer.

0.5 pts Majstorovic 50-1 Ladbrokes
0.5 pts Smijanic 66-1 Bet365

US Masters Portfolio

My Masters bets are the following

Mickleson - 3pts win 9-1 betsson.com (are they the new sportsinteraction.com?)
Goosen - 3pts win 12-1 willhill.com
Howell - 1/2 pt win 66-1 sportsinteraction.com (they they the old betsson.com?)
Olazabel - 1/3 pt win 80-1 betsson.com
Weir - 1/3 pt win 80-1 betsson.com

Approx 7 pts staked in total.... any winner returns wins 28pts i.e. I have an approx 4-1 chance on these 5 runners. I may do some trading during the Masters as well.....